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How can an intercensal estimate change? I have an estimate from a P-25 report for July 1, 1977 and it does not agree with what is on the Census Bureau estimation web site.
The Census Bureau issues a set of "intercensal" estimates that are consistent with the most recent census. The intercensal estimates are produced using a mathematical formula to interpolate between two census dates.
The July 1, 1977 estimate on the Census Bureau web site is an intercensal estimate that was produced to be consistent with the 1970 and 1980 census results. The July 1, 1977 estimate in the P-25 report, no. 708 was produced before the 1980 census.
For further details on the formula used by the Census Bureau, see the draft written by Sam Davis of the Estimation Branch at the Census Bureau: