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Smock cited in story on how low marriage rates may exacerbate marriage-status economic inequality

Shapiro says Americans' seemingly volatile spending pattern linked to 'sensible cash management'

Work of Cigolle, Ofstedal et al. cited in Forbes story on frailty risk among the elderly

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Sarah Burgard and former PSC trainee Jennifer Ailshire win ASA award for paper

James Jackson to be appointed to NSF's National Science Board

ISR's program in Society, Population, and Environment (SPE) focuses on social change and social issues worldwide.

McEniry and Schoeni host Conference on Long-run Impacts of Early Life Events

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psc brown bag iconWhat Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms

Francesco Billari (Director, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, University of Bocconi, Milano, Italy)

03/02/2009, at noon in room 6050 ISR-Thompson.

Why do people have kids in developed societies? We propose an empirical test of two alternative theories – children as 'consumption' vs. 'investment' good. We use as a natural experiment the Italian pension reforms of the 90s that introduced a clear discontinuity in the treatment across workers. This policy experiment is particularly well suited, since the 'consumption' motive predicts lower future pensions to reduce fertility, while the 'old-age security' to increase it. Our empirical analysis identifies a clear and robust positive effect of less generous future pensions on post-reform fertility. These findings are consistent with 'old-age security' even for contemporary fertility.


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