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Lam looks at population and development in next 15 years in UN commission keynote address

Mitchell et al. find harsh family environments may magnify disadvantage via impact on 'genetic architecture'

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Raghunathan appointed director of Survey Research Center

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Kusunoki wins faculty seed grant award from Institute for Research on Women and Gender

2014 PAA Annual Meeting, May 1-3, Boston

Next Brown Bag

Monday, April 21
Grant Miller: Managerial Incentives in Public Service Delivery

psc brown bag iconWhat Explains Fertility? Evidence from Italian Pension Reforms

Francesco Billari (Director, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, University of Bocconi, Milano, Italy)

03-02-2009, at noon in room 6050 ISR-Thompson.

Why do people have kids in developed societies? We propose an empirical test of two alternative theories – children as 'consumption' vs. 'investment' good. We use as a natural experiment the Italian pension reforms of the 90s that introduced a clear discontinuity in the treatment across workers. This policy experiment is particularly well suited, since the 'consumption' motive predicts lower future pensions to reduce fertility, while the 'old-age security' to increase it. Our empirical analysis identifies a clear and robust positive effect of less generous future pensions on post-reform fertility. These findings are consistent with 'old-age security' even for contemporary fertility.


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