Author Archive for ljridley

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Where in America is there a ‘normal’ amount of immigration?

By: Steven Rich
Source: Washington Post

According to U.S. Census data, 12.9 percent of Americans were born in a foreign country. The nearly 40 million foreign-born people are not even distributed throughout the country.

View an interactive map showing where foreign-born Americans are concentrated. Washtenaw County is close at 11.4%.

Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40

By: Steven Martin, Nan Astone, Elizabeth Peters
Source: Urban Institute

Abstract:

Declining marriage rates suggest a growing fraction of millennials will remain unmarried through age 40. In this brief, we use data from the American Community Survey to estimate age-specific marriage rates and project the percentage of millennials who will marry by age 40 in different scenarios. We find that the percentage of millennials marrying by age 40 will fall lower than for any previous generation of Americans, even in a scenario where marriage rates recover considerably. Moreover, marriage patterns will continue to diverge by education and race, increasing the divides between mostly married “haves” and increasingly single “have-nots”.

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Migration and the Environment

A new publication from the Population Reference Bureau examines migration due to climate change.

From the summary:

Throughout human history, people have been on the move—exploring new places; pursuing work opportunities; fleeing conflict; or involuntarily migrating due to changing political, social, or environmental conditions.

Today there are an estimated 230 million international migrants, a number that is projected to double to over 400 million by 2050. Beyond the people who cross international borders, probably more than two to three times as many are internal migrants, people who have moved within their own countries.

The reasons for moving are complex, but over the past decade, as the evidence of global climate change has accumulated, academics, policymakers, and the media have given more attention to migration as a result of environmental change.

Read the full report (PDF)

Working Papers From the NBER

Learning Millennial-Style
by Bruce I. Carlin, Li Jiang, Stephen A. Spiller #20268
Abstract; PDF

Educational Assortative Mating and Household Income Inequality
by Lasse Eika, Magne Mogstad, Basit Zafar #20271
Abstract; PDF

Fertility Decline and Missing Women
by Seema Jayachandran #20272
Abstract; PDF

Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation
by Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Lawrence F. Katz #20273
Abstract; PDF

Tractable and Consistent Random Graph Models
by Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Matthew O. Jackson #20276
Abstract; PDF

Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation
by Brian Beach, Joseph Ferrie, Martin Saavedra, Werner Troesken #20279
Abstract; PDF

The Prison Boom and the Lack of Black Progress after Smith and Welch
by Derek Neal, Armin Rick #20283
Abstract; PDF

Improving Educational Outcomes in Developing Countries: Lessons from Rigorous Evaluations
by Richard Murnane, Alejandro J. Ganimian #20284
Abstract; PDF

What Policies Increase Prosocial Behavior? An Experiment with Referees at the Journal of Public Economics
by Raj Chetty, Emmanuel Saez, Laszlo Sandor #20290
Abstract; PDF

Unhappy Cities
by Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Oren Ziv #20291
Abstract; PDF

Inducing Leaders to Take Risky Decisions: Dismissal, Tenure, and Term Limits
by Philippe Aghion, Matthew Jackson #20301
Abstract; PDF

Marital Disruption and Health Insurance
by H. Elizabeth Peters, Kosali Simon, Jamie Rubenstein Taber #20233
Abstract; PDF

Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity
by Stephen J. Redding, Matthew A. Turner #20235
Abstract; PDF

Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving
by Benjamin Hansen #20243
Abstract; PDF

Life Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums and Internal Rates of Return
by Manudeep Bhuller, Magne Mogstad, Kjell G. Salvanes #20250
Abstract; PDF

Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce Cheng Wong #20251
Abstract; PDF

Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine #20195
Abstract; PDF

Heterogeneity in the Value of Life
by Joseph E. Aldy, Seamus J. Smyth #20206
Abstract; PDF

Parenting with Style: Altruism and Paternalism in Intergenerational Preference Transmission
by Matthias Doepke, Fabrizio Zilibotti #20214
Abstract; PDF

Flaking Out: Student Absences and Snow Days as Disruptions of Instructional Time
by Joshua Goodman #20221
Abstract; PDF

“Sticker Shock” in Individual Insurance under Health Reform
by Mark Pauly, Scott Harrington, Adam Leive #20223
Abstract; PDF

Intrahousehold Inequality
by Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Costas Meghir #20191
Abstract; PDF

Impact of Premium Subsidies on the Take-up of Health Insurance: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
by Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20196
Abstract; PDF

Women’s Income and Marriage Markets in the United States: Evidence from the Civil War Pension
by Laura Salisbury #20201
Abstract; PDF

Access to Health Insurance and the Use of Inpatient Medical Care: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Mandate
by Yaa Akosa Antwi, Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20202
Abstract; PDF

How Has the Class of 2008 Fared?

From the Chronicle of Higher Education:

The Class of 2008 graduated from college in the early months of the Great Recession. New government data show that, four years later, 69 percent of its members were working and not enrolled in a postsecondary program, while 10.7 percent were both employed and enrolled. Nearly 6 percent were enrolled but not working, while 6.7 percent were unemployed and 7.9 percent were out of the work force.

Read the full story.
National Center for Education Statistics report, “Baccalaureate and Beyond: A First Look at the Employment Experiences and Lives of College Graduates, 4 Years On”

Fundamentalisms and Women’s Rights

Eldis has put together some resources on Christian and Islamic fundamentalism and women’s rights.

From the website:

This guide features a handful of excellent resources on this difficult and broad issue including: practical guidance on fundamentalisms for human rights activists; regional studies into Christian and Islamic fundamentalist discourses around sexual and reproductive health and rights; recommendations on broadening understanding and developing more nuanced approaches to tackling fundamentalisms; an overview of women’s rights in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Find links to these resources here.

Declining Teen Births in U.S.

Via Population Reference Bureau
By Heidi Worley

From the article:

(June 2014) Births to U.S. teenage girls ages 15 to 17 have decreased by 63 percent over the past 20 years (from 39 per 1,000 teens in 1991 to 14 per 1,000 teens in 2012), according to the latest statistics released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). With an 8 percent decline between 2011 and 2012, the birth rate for teens ages 15 to 17 is at its lowest level ever recorded in the United States.

Full text of article

Vital Signs: Births to Teens Aged 15-17 Years — United States, 1991-2012, from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
Births: Final Data for 2012, National Vital Statistics Report 62(9) (PDF)

PRB Interview with Doug Wolf on Late-Life Disability and Long-Term Care

From the website:

(June 2014) Douglas Wolf discussed disability and long-term care policy in the U.S. with Marlene Lee, PRB program director for Academic Research and Relations. Wolf is the Gerald B. Cramer Professor of Aging Studies in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and director of the Center for Aging & Policy Research at Syracuse University.

View the video

UNHCR Global Trends 2013

Via The UN Refugee Agency Statistics and Operational Data

From the e-mail announcement:

The report provides an overview of the statistical trends and changes in the global populations of concern to UNHCR, i.e. refugees, returnees, stateless persons and certain groups of internally displaced persons (IDPs), placed in the context of major humanitarian developments and displacement during the year.

By end-2013, 51.2 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide as a result of persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or human rights violations. It is the first time in the post-World War II era that numbers have exceeded 50 million people. Some 16.7 million persons were refugees: 11.7 million under UNHCR’s mandate and 5.0 million Palestinian refugees registered by UNRWA. The global figure included 33.3 million IDPs and close to 1.2 million asylum-seekers. If these 51.2 million persons were a nation, they would make up the 26th largest in the world.

Download the report (PDF)

QSEP Research Reports

Population Consequences of Male Selection at Birth When The Sex Probabilities Can Be Altered
by Frank T. Denton and Byron G. Spencer
We explore the implications of male preference stopping rules for a stable population, and more generally the aggregate implications of higher male/female birth ratios. We begin by specifying nine alternative family stopping rules, derive their probability functions, and simulate the long-run effects on population growth rates and age and sex ratios. We then move away from the idea of explicit stopping rules and simulate the population effects of 81 alternative combinations of birth sex ratios and fertility rates under (implicit) preference for male children. The results show how male preference and fertility choices at the individual family level can affect the overall characteristics of a population.
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Changes in Wage Distributions of Wage Earners in Canada: 2000-2005
by Kao-Lee Liaw and Lei Xu
This research attempts to figure out whether the wage distributions of Canadian wage earners have been moving towards or away from the flowing three ideals in the early part of the 21th century. First, there be a pattern of wage increase that is shared by a large majority of wage earners. Second, the historical gender inequality in wage be reduced. Third, there be a decrease in wage inequality for both males and females. We use the long-form records of the 2001 and 2006 population censuses to carry out our investigation. A nice feature of these records is that the values of income variables are not top-coded so that the true averages will not be understated and good insights into the situations of those with extremely high incomes can be obtained. We are disappointed by finding that the Canadian economy mostly drifted away from our three ideals, with the main exception being that for female wage earners the improvement in wage was fortunately shared by a large majority. We believe that an important reason for our disappointing finding is the progressive entrenchment of market fundamentalism in Canada. Incidentally, we have discovered that Statistics Canada did a good job in designing the 2006 census questionnaire so that the annoying choppiness that occurred to the 2000 wage distributions vanished in the 2005 wage distributions.
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