Author Archive for ljridley

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How Mass Incarceration of Black People Skews Our Sense of Reality

Jeff Guo of Wonkblog examines how the absence of 1.6 million people from economic statistics affects the decisions politicians and policymakers make:

Though there are nearly 1.6 million Americans in state or federal prison, their absence is not accounted for in the figures that politicians and policymakers use to make decisions. As a result, we operate under a distorted picture of the nation’s economic health.

There’s no simple way to estimate the impact of mass incarceration on the jobs market. But here’s a simple thought experiment. Imagine how the white and black unemployment rates would change if all the people in prison were added to the unemployment rolls.

New Quiz: Mortality Among Centenarians, 2000-2014

Centenarian: Age 100+ years
Death rate: number of deaths per 100 centenarians

Mortality Among Centenarians, 2010-2014

Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis in U.S.

The CDC released a new Fact Sheet showing the lifetime risk of HIV diagnosis in the United States.

From the press release:

CDC researchers used diagnoses and death rates from 2009-2013 to project the lifetime risk of HIV diagnosis in the United States by sex, race and ethnicity, state, and HIV risk group, assuming diagnoses rates remain constant. Overall, the lifetime risk of HIV diagnosis in the U.S. is now 1 in 99, an improvement from a previous analysis using 2004-2005 data that reported overall risk at 1 in 78.

Demographic and Economic Profiles of the Super Tuesday States

In advance of Super Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau released demographic and economic profiles of the 12 states holding primaries and caucuses:

H/T Data Detectives

Stata Conference

From the conference announcement:

Looking to increase your Stata IQ, or perhaps just want an excuse to enjoy a few days in the city that is second to none? You can’t miss with the 2016 Stata Conference, which will be held July 28–29 in Chicago, Illinois (immediately before the 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings, also in Chicago).

The Stata Conference provides a unique users-group experience, bringing together top scientists from around the world and Stata developers in an intimate atmosphere where everyone is welcome. If you haven’t attended a Stata Users Group meeting before, come see what you’ve been missing!

Discover what Stata can do for you at the 2016 Stata Conference.

Meet with expert users and Stata developers.
Gain new perspectives and new ways to use Stata.
Share your insights and build connections.
Don’t miss this opportunity to connect with fellow researchers and Stata developers.

Registration opens in April.

When      July 28–29, 2016
Where Gleacher Center
  The University of Chicago Booth School of Business
  450 North Cityfront Plaza Drive
  Chicago, IL 60611
  (312) 464-8787
Who Stata developers
  You and Stata users from around the world

Details

Mean Age of Mothers, 2010 – 2014

Mean and average age: The arithmetic average of a mother’s age at birth.

First birth: The first child born alive to a mother.

Race and Hispanic origin: Race and Hispanic origin are reported separately on birth certificates. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Persons of non-Hispanic ancestry are further classified by race because there are substantial difference in fertility and maternal characteristics between Hispanic and non-Hispanic persons. Persons of AIAN and API ancestry are not classified separately by Hispanic origin because the majority of these persons are non-Hispanic. Multiple-race data reported since 2003 were bridged to single race categories for comparability among states and for trend analyses.

New quiz!

Mixed Marriage and How We Think About Race

Jeff Guo of Wonkblog examines research showing trends in how children of mixed marriages report their own race to the Census Report.

In fact, new immigrants may be assimilating a lot faster than than we had ever thought. A new study this week from economists Brian Duncan, of the University of Colorado, and Stephen Trejo of University of Texas, Austin finds that the descendents of immigrants from Latin-American and Asian countries quickly cease to identify as Hispanic or Asian on government surveys.

The Duncan & Trejo paper can be found here.

More On Poverty and Financial Literacy

Sendhil Mullainathan writes about the lessons the rich can learn from the poor about frugality for the Upshot.

Consider this situation: You’re shopping for headphones. An electronics store has the model you want for $50, a reasonable price. But a sales clerk says: “You know our other branch has this item on sale for $40.” Going to that store will take 30 minutes, and you can’t buy the headphones for that price online. Do you go to the other branch?

Before you answer, consider a slightly modified version of the same situation: Instead of headphones, you are buying speakers. You go to the same store and find the model you want for $400. Again, the price seems reasonable but the sales clerk says it’s on sale at the other branch for $385. What do you do now?

This is covering the same research as the earlier Wonkblog article.

Predicting Crime

Maurice Chammah, writing for The Marshall Project, writes about the St. Louis police departments’ use of crime-predicting software.

HunchLab, produced by Philadelphia-based startup Azavea, represents the newest iteration of predictive policing, a method of analyzing crime data and identifying patterns that may repeat into the future. HunchLab primarily surveys past crimes, but also digs into dozens of other factors like population density; census data; the locations of bars, churches, schools, and transportation hubs; schedules for home games — even moon phases. Some of the correlations it uncovers are obvious, like less crime on cold days. Others are more mysterious: rates of aggravated assault in Chicago have decreased on windier days, while cars in Philadelphia were stolen more often when parked near schools.

H/T Flowing Data

New Quiz: Online Dating

Here is this week’s quiz. I am trying a different format than last week’s. Please let me know which you prefer or if you have any feedback, please e-mail me at ljridley [at] umich [dot] edu.

Online Dating, 2013 & 2015

Online dating and mobile dating app usage in 2013 and 2015.