Author Archive for ljridley

Page 3 of 74

Using Probability in Criminal Sentencing

FlowingData extracts a statistics lesson on probability from a piece in FiveThirtyEight about risk assessment and criminal sentencing.

Lives of the Working Poor

David Lapp of the blog Family Studies uses the story of Lance, age 24, to illustrate the lives of the working poor: “Lance got married before having kids, and he and his wife both work—yet they still come up short on rent.”

NBER Working Papers

Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey
by Henry S. Farber #21216
Abstract; PDF

The Great Escape: Intergenerational Mobility Since 1940
by Nathaniel G. Hilger #21217
Abstract; PDF

The Stress Cost of Children
by Hielke Buddelmeyer, Daniel S. Hamermesh, Mark Wooden #21223
Abstract; PDF

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics
by Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln, Tarek Alexander Hassan #21228
Abstract; PDF

Early Childhood Education by MOOC: Lessons from Sesame Street
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine #21229
Abstract; PDF

The Big Sort: College Reputation and Labor Market Outcomes
by W. Bentley MacLeod, Evan Riehl, Juan E. Saavedra, Miguel Urquiola #21230
Abstract; PDF

Admitting Students to Selective Education Programs: Merit, Profiling, and Affirmative Action
by Dario Cestau, Dennis Epple, Holger Sieg #21232
Abstract; PDF

An Overview of the Stratified Economics of Stratified Medicine
by Mark R. Trusheim, Ernst R. Berndt #21233
Abstract; PDF

Mental Health Stigma
by Prashant Bharadwaj, Mallesh M. Pai, Agne Suziedelyte #21240
Abstract; PDF

Innovation and Top Income Inequality
by Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Antonin Bergeaud, Richard Blundell, David Hemous #21247
Abstract; PDF

Estimating the Impacts of Program Benefits: Using Instrumental Variables with Underreported and Imputed Data
by Melvin Stephens, Jr., Takashi Unayama #21248
Abstract; PDF

Linkages and Economic Development
by Dominick Bartelme, Yuriy Gorodnichenko #21251
Abstract; PDF

Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation
by Regis Barnichon, Andrew Figura #21252
Abstract; PDF

Charter Schools: A Survey of Research on Their Characteristics and Effectiveness
by Dennis Epple, Richard Romano, Ron Zimmer #21256
Abstract; PDF

Welfare Rules, Incentives, and Family Structure
by Robert A. Moffitt, Brian J. Phelan, Anne E. Winkler #21257
Abstract; PDF

Labor Market Networks and Recovery from Mass Layoffs Before, During, and After the Great Recession
by Judith K. Hellerstein, Mark J. Kutzbach, David Neumark #21262
Abstract; PDF

Watersheds in Infant Mortality: The Role of Effective Water and Sewerage Infrastructure, 1880 to 1915
by Marcella Alsan, Claudia Goldin #21263
Abstract; PDF

Medical Spending of the U.S. Elderly
by Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French, John Bailey Jones, Jeremy McCauley #21270
Abstract; PDF

How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?
by Jason M. Lindo, Analisa Packham #21275
Abstract; PDF

Solving Shortage in a Priceless Market: Insights from Blood Donation
by Tianshu Sun, Susan Feng Lu, Ginger Zhe Jin #21312
Abstract; PDF

Millennial Generation Still Living at Home

Despite an improved economy more young adults live with their parents: “In 2010, 69% of 18- to 34-year-olds lived independently. As of the first four months of this year, only 67% of Millennials were living independently.”

Pew Report here.

The Working Poor in 2013

The Bureau of Labor Economics released a report on the number of “working poor” in the United States from 1986-2013.

The number of “working poor” in the United States was 10.5 million in 2013. The working poor are people who spent at least 27 weeks in the labor force during the year—either working or looking for work—but whose incomes were below the official poverty level. The working-poor rate, or the ratio of the working poor to all those in the labor force for at least 27 weeks, was 7.0 percent in 2013.

See the full report (PDF).

The Most and Least Racially Diverse U.S. Religious Groups

The Pew Research Center examined the racial/ethnic make up of 29 groups, including Protestant denominations, other religious groups and three religiously unaffiliated groups. The analysis included 5 racial and ethnic groups: Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, blacks, Asians, and other/mixed-race.

See also: Major U.S. metropolitan areas differ in their religious profiles

White Gains/Losses in Cities and Suburbs

William H. Frey notes in a piece for Brookings that:

More than one-quarter of the 100 largest metropolitan areas experienced white losses in both cities and suburbs. Less than half (45) of the these areas followed the traditional patterns of white city loss and suburban gain—including Midwest areas such as Columbus, Kansas City, and Minneapolis-St. Paul.


Jia Zhang of FiveThirtyEight built a Twitter bot which pulls data from the U.S. Census and creates mini-narrative. For example, “I haven’t moved recently. I work for a private company. I was widowed.”

Census data is often seen at a large scale — atlases, research studies and interactive visualizations all offer the view from 10,000 feet. But there are people inside those top-line numbers. And when you start to look at the people in the data sets, you get a glimpse of their lives. Just a few descriptors — how much they work, whom they take care of, where they were born — can give us a sense of the people around us.

Follow censusAmericans here.

The Geography of Childhood

Emily Badger and Christopher Ingraham of Wonkblog use data from the Annie E. Casey Foundation’s Kids Count to map the best and worst states for children on a variety of indicators, including poverty, food security, housing, family structure, education, exercise, and incarceration rates.

See also, The growing wealth gap that nobody is talking about.

NBER Working Papers

Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth
by Chang-Tai Hsieh, Enrico Moretti #21154
Abstract; PDF

A Tractable Framework for Analyzing a Class of Nonstationary Markov Models
by Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar, John Taylor, Inna Tsener #21155
Abstract; PDF

The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz #21156
Abstract; PDF

Temperature and Human Capital in the Short- and Long-Run
by Joshua S. Graff Zivin, Solomon M. Hsiang, Matthew J. Neidell #21157
Abstract; PDF

Can helping the sick hurt the able? Incentives, information and disruption in a disability-related welfare reform
by Nitika Bagaria, Barbara Petrongolo, John Van Reenen #21163
Abstract; PDF

Skill Biased Structural Change
by Francisco J. Buera, Joseph P. Kaboski, Richard Rogerson #21165
Abstract; PDF

Social Networks, Reputation and Commitment: Evidence from a Savings Monitors Experiment
by Emily Breza, Arun G. Chandrasekhar #21169
Abstract; PDF

Kingpin Approaches to Fighting Crime and Community Violence: Evidence from Mexico’s Drug War
by Jason M. Lindo, Maria Padilla-Romo #21171
Abstract; PDF

Misperceiving Inequality
by Vladimir Gimpelson, Daniel Treisman #21174
Abstract; PDF

Foreign and Native Skilled Workers: What Can We Learn from H-1B Lotteries?
by Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, Chad Sparber #21175
Abstract; PDF

Mothers’ Employment and Children’s Educational Gender Gap
by Xiaodong Fan, Hanming Fang, Simen Markussen #21183
Abstract; PDF

Neighborhood Sanitation and Infant Mortality
by Michael Geruso, Dean Spears #21184
Abstract; PDF

Firming Up Inequality
by Jae Song, David J. Price, Fatih Guvenen, Nicholas Bloom #21199
Abstract; PDF

Immigration, Trade and Productivity in Services: Evidence from U.K. Firms
by Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri, Greg C. Wright #21200
Abstract; PDF

Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data
by Atif Mian, Amir Sufi #21203
Abstract; PDF

Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence on Adult Noncognitive Investments in Liberia
by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, Margaret Sheridan #21204 (DEV)
Abstract; PDF

Causal Effects of Mental Health Treatment on Education Outcomes for Youth in the Justice System
by Alison Evans Cuellar, Dhaval M. Dave #21206
Abstract; PDF

Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago
by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Harold A. Pollack #21178
Abstract; PDF

The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program
by Mark Duggan, Melissa S. Kearney, Stephanie Rennane #21209
Abstract; PDF

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
by Austin Nichols, Jesse Rothstein #21211
Abstract; PDF