Author Archive for ljridley

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Mexico’s Housing Shortage Solution

They Built It. People Came. Now They Go.
By: Victoria Burnett
Source: New York Times

A government program to solve Mexico’s chronic housing shortage produced huge developments without jobs or supporting services, forcing thousands of new owners to abandon their homes.

Working Papers From the NBER

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach
by Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song, Amir Yaron #20303
Abstract; PDF

The Persistence and Heterogeneity of Health among Older Americans
by Florian Heiss, Steven F. Venti, David A. Wise #20306
Abstract; PDF

The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach
by Guido Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda, Henry E. Siu #20307
Abstract; PDF

Expanding the School Breakfast Program: Impacts on Children’s Consumption, Nutrition and Health
by Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Mary Zaki #20308
Abstract; PDF

When Incentives Matter Too Much: Explaining Significant Responses to Irrelevant Information
by Thomas Ahn, Jacob L. Vigdor #20321
Abstract; PDF

Finite Population Causal Standard Errors
by Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge #20325
Abstract; PDF

Should Student Employment Be Subsidized? Conditional Counterfactuals and the Outcomes of Work-Study Participation
by Judith Scott-Clayton, Veronica Minaya #20329
Abstract; PDF

Non-Adherence In Health Care: A Positive and Normative Analysis
by Mark Egan, Tomas J. Philipson #20330
Abstract; PDF

Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use
by D. Mark Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, Daniel I. Rees #20332
Abstract; PDF

Broken or Fixed Effects?
by Charles E. Gibbons, Juan Carlos Suarez Serrato, Michael B. Urbancic #20342
Abstract; PDF

How Does Family Health Care Use Respond to Economic Shocks? Realized and Anticipated Effects
by Alan C. Monheit, Irina Grafova, Rizie Kumar #20348
Abstract; PDF

Urban Vibrancy and Corporate Growth
by Casey Dougal, Christopher A. Parsons, Sheridan Titman #20350
Abstract; PDF

The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones
by Solomon M. Hsiang, Amir S. Jina #20352
Abstract; PDF

Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit
by Joanne W. Hsu, David A. Matsa, Brian T. Melzer #20353
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall
by Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm, Nikolaus Wolf #20354
Abstract; PDF

Affirmative Action Bans and Black Admission Outcomes: Selection-Corrected Estimates from UC Law Schools
by Danny Yagan #20361
Abstract; PDF

Sage Stats and CQ Political Stats Trial

via Catherine Morse, UM library

We have trial access to two new sources for statistics: Sage Stats and CQ US Political Stats. Both trials are available for the Ann Arbor, Flint and Dearborn campuses until September 17, 2014.

SAGE Stats is a data visualization and research platform that currently hosts two collections State Stats and Local Stats. State Stats is a collection of data measures that span all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Local Stats is a collection of data measures that span all counties, cities, and metropolitan statistical areas. Dating back more than 20 years, each data series is displayed with detailed source information. Topics covered include the economy, education, crime, government finance, health, population, religion, social welfare, and transportation.

CQ US Political Stats is a separate platform that brings together data on the US Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidency for comparison and visualizations. CQ US Political Stats contains data on a variety of topics such as Supreme Court outcomes and demographic data on members of Congress. The data comes from a variety of sources including: CQ Roll Call, Vital Statistics on the Presidency, Supreme Court Compendium, America Votes, and CQ Alamanac.

Please send any comments to

Where in America is there a ‘normal’ amount of immigration?

By: Steven Rich
Source: Washington Post

According to U.S. Census data, 12.9 percent of Americans were born in a foreign country. The nearly 40 million foreign-born people are not even distributed throughout the country.

View an interactive map showing where foreign-born Americans are concentrated. Washtenaw County is close at 11.4%.

Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40

By: Steven Martin, Nan Astone, Elizabeth Peters
Source: Urban Institute


Declining marriage rates suggest a growing fraction of millennials will remain unmarried through age 40. In this brief, we use data from the American Community Survey to estimate age-specific marriage rates and project the percentage of millennials who will marry by age 40 in different scenarios. We find that the percentage of millennials marrying by age 40 will fall lower than for any previous generation of Americans, even in a scenario where marriage rates recover considerably. Moreover, marriage patterns will continue to diverge by education and race, increasing the divides between mostly married “haves” and increasingly single “have-nots”.

Download full report

Migration and the Environment

A new publication from the Population Reference Bureau examines migration due to climate change.

From the summary:

Throughout human history, people have been on the move—exploring new places; pursuing work opportunities; fleeing conflict; or involuntarily migrating due to changing political, social, or environmental conditions.

Today there are an estimated 230 million international migrants, a number that is projected to double to over 400 million by 2050. Beyond the people who cross international borders, probably more than two to three times as many are internal migrants, people who have moved within their own countries.

The reasons for moving are complex, but over the past decade, as the evidence of global climate change has accumulated, academics, policymakers, and the media have given more attention to migration as a result of environmental change.

Read the full report (PDF)

Working Papers From the NBER

Learning Millennial-Style
by Bruce I. Carlin, Li Jiang, Stephen A. Spiller #20268
Abstract; PDF

Educational Assortative Mating and Household Income Inequality
by Lasse Eika, Magne Mogstad, Basit Zafar #20271
Abstract; PDF

Fertility Decline and Missing Women
by Seema Jayachandran #20272
Abstract; PDF

Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation
by Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Lawrence F. Katz #20273
Abstract; PDF

Tractable and Consistent Random Graph Models
by Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Matthew O. Jackson #20276
Abstract; PDF

Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation
by Brian Beach, Joseph Ferrie, Martin Saavedra, Werner Troesken #20279
Abstract; PDF

The Prison Boom and the Lack of Black Progress after Smith and Welch
by Derek Neal, Armin Rick #20283
Abstract; PDF

Improving Educational Outcomes in Developing Countries: Lessons from Rigorous Evaluations
by Richard Murnane, Alejandro J. Ganimian #20284
Abstract; PDF

What Policies Increase Prosocial Behavior? An Experiment with Referees at the Journal of Public Economics
by Raj Chetty, Emmanuel Saez, Laszlo Sandor #20290
Abstract; PDF

Unhappy Cities
by Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Oren Ziv #20291
Abstract; PDF

Inducing Leaders to Take Risky Decisions: Dismissal, Tenure, and Term Limits
by Philippe Aghion, Matthew Jackson #20301
Abstract; PDF

Marital Disruption and Health Insurance
by H. Elizabeth Peters, Kosali Simon, Jamie Rubenstein Taber #20233
Abstract; PDF

Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity
by Stephen J. Redding, Matthew A. Turner #20235
Abstract; PDF

Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving
by Benjamin Hansen #20243
Abstract; PDF

Life Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums and Internal Rates of Return
by Manudeep Bhuller, Magne Mogstad, Kjell G. Salvanes #20250
Abstract; PDF

Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce Cheng Wong #20251
Abstract; PDF

Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine #20195
Abstract; PDF

Heterogeneity in the Value of Life
by Joseph E. Aldy, Seamus J. Smyth #20206
Abstract; PDF

Parenting with Style: Altruism and Paternalism in Intergenerational Preference Transmission
by Matthias Doepke, Fabrizio Zilibotti #20214
Abstract; PDF

Flaking Out: Student Absences and Snow Days as Disruptions of Instructional Time
by Joshua Goodman #20221
Abstract; PDF

“Sticker Shock” in Individual Insurance under Health Reform
by Mark Pauly, Scott Harrington, Adam Leive #20223
Abstract; PDF

Intrahousehold Inequality
by Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Costas Meghir #20191
Abstract; PDF

Impact of Premium Subsidies on the Take-up of Health Insurance: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
by Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20196
Abstract; PDF

Women’s Income and Marriage Markets in the United States: Evidence from the Civil War Pension
by Laura Salisbury #20201
Abstract; PDF

Access to Health Insurance and the Use of Inpatient Medical Care: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Mandate
by Yaa Akosa Antwi, Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20202
Abstract; PDF

How Has the Class of 2008 Fared?

From the Chronicle of Higher Education:

The Class of 2008 graduated from college in the early months of the Great Recession. New government data show that, four years later, 69 percent of its members were working and not enrolled in a postsecondary program, while 10.7 percent were both employed and enrolled. Nearly 6 percent were enrolled but not working, while 6.7 percent were unemployed and 7.9 percent were out of the work force.

Read the full story.
National Center for Education Statistics report, “Baccalaureate and Beyond: A First Look at the Employment Experiences and Lives of College Graduates, 4 Years On”

Fundamentalisms and Women’s Rights

Eldis has put together some resources on Christian and Islamic fundamentalism and women’s rights.

From the website:

This guide features a handful of excellent resources on this difficult and broad issue including: practical guidance on fundamentalisms for human rights activists; regional studies into Christian and Islamic fundamentalist discourses around sexual and reproductive health and rights; recommendations on broadening understanding and developing more nuanced approaches to tackling fundamentalisms; an overview of women’s rights in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Find links to these resources here.

Declining Teen Births in U.S.

Via Population Reference Bureau
By Heidi Worley

From the article:

(June 2014) Births to U.S. teenage girls ages 15 to 17 have decreased by 63 percent over the past 20 years (from 39 per 1,000 teens in 1991 to 14 per 1,000 teens in 2012), according to the latest statistics released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). With an 8 percent decline between 2011 and 2012, the birth rate for teens ages 15 to 17 is at its lowest level ever recorded in the United States.

Full text of article

Vital Signs: Births to Teens Aged 15-17 Years — United States, 1991-2012, from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
Births: Final Data for 2012, National Vital Statistics Report 62(9) (PDF)