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What’s the Matter with Polling?

What is the Matter with Polling?
Cliff Zukin | New York Times
June 20, 2015

This article focuses on political polling – and predictions from political polls, but much of the content is relevant to other sorts of telephone-based opinion surveys, many of which are used by social scientists: Survey of Consumers, Pew, Gallup, etc.

The article focuses on (a) the move from landline to cellphones; (b) the growing non-response rate; (c) costs; (d) and sample metrics, e.g., representativeness.

The decline in landline phones makes telephone surveys more expensive since cell phones cannot be reached through automatic dialers. The landline phone vs cellphone distribution comes from the National Health Interview Survey. Here’s a recent summary of the data. The article summarizes this as “About 10 years ago. . . . about 6 percent of the public used only cellphones. The N.H.I.S. estimate for the first half of 2014 found that this had grown to 43 percent, with another 17 percent “mostly” using cellphones. In other words, a landline-only sample conducted for the 2014 elections would miss about three-fifths of the American public, almost three times as many as it would have missed in 2008.”

The other issue for polling is the growing non-response rate.

When I first started doing telephone surveys in New Jersey in the late 1970s, we considered an 80 percent response rate acceptable, and even then we worried if the 20 percent we missed were different in attitudes and behaviors than the 80 percent we got. Enter answering machines and other technologies. By 1997, Pew’s response rate was 36 percent, and the decline has accelerated. By 2014 the response rate had fallen to 8 percent.

Non-response makes surveys more expensive – more numbers to call to find a respondent and many of them dialed by hand if it is a cellphone universe. And, most important, is the representativeness of the sample that the survey ends up with. So far, surveys based on probability samples seem to still be representative, at least based on comparing sample characteristics to gold-standard benchmarks like the American Community Survey (ACS). Participation in the ACS is mandatory, although for the last several years, Republicans in the House have tried to remove this requirement. Canada did away with its mandatory requirements with its census, with disastrous results. The following is a compilation of posts related to the mandatory response requirement in the US and Canada: [Older Posts]

Not any more: NY vs FL

cartoon

The above cartoon is from the Florida Sun Sentinal back in early 2014 as New York just held on to its ranking as the third largest state. With the release of the most recent population estimates, Florida has now edged out New York.

Florida Passes New York to Become the Nation’s Third Most Populous State, Census Bureau Reports
December 23, 2014

We’ve updated our Apportionment Calculator. See which states are projected to lose/gain seats in 2020 based on the 2014 results.

And, no. North Dakota is not gaining a seat, even as it is the fastest growing state.

Changes to NIH Biosketch

NIH is rolling out a new biosketch format. See details.