The World Bank has released a new working paper by Neil Fantom and Umar Serajuddin reviewing the World Bank’s classification of countries by income.
The World Bank has used an income classification to group countries for analytical purposes for many years. Since the present income classification was first introduced 25 years ago there has been significant change in the global economic landscape. As real incomes have risen, the number of countries in the low income group has fallen to 31, while the number of high income countries has risen to 80. As countries have transitioned to middle income status, more people are living below the World Bank’s international extreme poverty line in middle income countries than in low income countries. These changes in the world economy, along with a rapid increase in the user base of World Bank data, suggest that a review of the income classification is needed. A key consideration is the views of users, and this paper finds opinions to be mixed: some critics argue the thresholds are dated and set too low; others find merit in continuing to have a fixed benchmark to assess progress over time. On balance, there is still value in the current approach, based on gross national income per capita, to classifying countries into different groups. However, the paper proposes adjustments to the methodology that is used to keep the value of the thresholds for each income group constant over time. Several proposals for changing the current thresholds are also presented, which it is hoped will inform further discussion and any decision to adopt a new approach.
Read a summary of the findings.
Download the PDF.
Scott Stanley, writing for Family Studies, contrasts his own work with a study by Sarah Mernitz and Claire Kamp Dush which finds that people experience emotional gains when they move in together regardless of marital status. Stanley’s analysis finds that, for a variety of reasons, this isn’t necessarily true.
Jay Ulfelder, writing for FiveThirtyEight, argues that the widely held belief that economic inequality causes political upheaval is a difficult thing to prove:
Just because a belief is widely held, however, does not make it true. In fact, it’s still hard to establish with confidence whether and how economic inequality shapes political turmoil around the world. That’s largely because of the difficulty in measuring inequality; on this subject, the historical record is full of holes. Social scientists are busy building better data sets, but the ones we have now aren’t sufficient to make strong causal claims at the global level.
Philip Cohen’s response to the piece is on his blog, Family Inequality.
Andrew Flowers of FiveThirtyEight examines a recent study by Lipsey, Farran and Hofer of Tennessee’s voluntary pre-K program, which finds that kids from low income families who went to pre-K tend to fare worse academically than those who did not. Flowers also looks at a new NBER working paper which disputes this result.
Full text of the papers:
A Randomized Control Trial of a Statewide Voluntary Prekindergarten Program on Children’s Skills and Behaviors through Third Grade
Early Childhood Education
The big news from the National Vital Statistics Report, Births: Final Data for 2014, was that the general fertility rate increased in 2014 for the first year since 2007.
Anna Sutherland, writing for Family Studies, highlights some other findings: The U.S. Fertility Rate May (Finally) Be Recovering from the Recession.
Nathan Yau of Flowing Data created a beautiful visualization of how Americans spend an average day.
More specifically, I tabulated transition probabilities for one activity to the other, such as from work to traveling, for every minute of the day. That provided 1,440 transition matrices, which let me model a day as a time-varying Markov chain.
Jennifer Murff, writing for the Family Studies blog, discusses the trend of the Baby Boom generation choosing cohabitation over marriage.
My mom’s story is not unique—far from it. Baby Boomers are cohabiting at a high and increasing rate. In 2000, when the oldest Baby Boomers were in their early fifties, there were 1.2 million cohabiting Americans over age 50; in 2013, by comparison, there were 3.3 million. For older Americans who are divorced and want to find love for a second (or a third) time—marriage is not in the cards, it seems. Unlike Millennials, many of whom cohabit to test the waters with a partner before making a long-term commitment, Boomers may cohabit rather than marry for more complicated reasons.
The Census Bureau released the 2014 estimates from it Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program last week.
From Data Detectives:
Tables provide statistics on the number of people in poverty, the number of children younger than age 5 in poverty (for states only), the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty, the number younger than age 18 in poverty, and median household income. At the school district level, estimates are available for the total population, the number of children ages 5 to 17 and the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty.
The drop in birth rates from 2007 through 2013 has been well documented. However, it is also important to examine total rates of pregnancy and other pregnancy outcomes (abortion and fetal loss) to provide a comprehensive picture of current reproductive trends. This NCHS Health E-Stat uses data from 2010 to update a previous NCHS report on pregnancy rates. Data on pregnancy outcomes by age and race and Hispanic origin are presented.
2010 Pregnancy Rates Among U.S. Women
Sally C. Curtin, Joyce Abma [NCHS] and Kathryn Kost [Guttmacher Institute]
html | pdf
Monday’s Supreme Court case centered on data. The case, Evenwell v Abbot, argues that representation in Texas legislative districts ought to be based on voters rather than the total population. Currently, most states use total population for re-districting purposes and this comes from the decennial census. The decennial census does not have a citizenship question. But, the replacement for the Census long-form, the American Community Survey (ACS) does.
The former directors of the Census Bureau filed an amicus brief against the idea of using the eligible voter population (e.g., citizens 18+ years of age). A group of applied demographers also filed an amicus brief, noting that this was quite possible using the ACS. Note that Sonia Sotomayor does not think the ACS is adequate, but that is because she misunderstands the data:
As is typical with cases involving data and social science research, there are lots of supplementary links:
The Washington Post [10 or so opinions from the Opinion | In Theory section]
‘One Person One Vote’: A Primer
Washington Post | Opinion : In Theory
[10 or so opinions and comments]
Argument preview: How to measure “one person, one vote”
Lyle Dunston | ScotusBlog
December 1, 2015
The Threat to Representation for Children and Non-Citizens: An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott on Redistricting
Andrew Beveridge | Social Explorer
December 2, 2015
Supreme Court is skeptical of challenge to Texas district lines
Maria Recio | Sacramento Bee
December 8, 2015
This is the source of the Sotomayor quote
“. . . Dueling Affirmative Action Empiricism” [this is actually from Fisher vs Texas, but is included here as evidence of the Supreme Court using social science research.