Archive for the 'Retirement' Category

Page 2 of 6

Medical Spending and Morbidity Compression

Evidence for Significant Compression of Morbidity In the Elderly U.S. Population
D. Cutler, K. Ghosh, and M. Landrum | NBER
July 2013
Using what is becoming a go-to-resource for health economists, Cutler,, use data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to examine how health is changing by time period until death. On average, they find evidence for compression of morbidity, which would help contain health-care spending. But, they do not imply that decadents lived a disease-free period up until death.

Demographic Potential: revisiting an old technique/methodology

The potential demography: a tool for evaluating differences among countries in the European Union
Gian Carlo Blangiardo and Stefania M. L. Rimoldi
Genus: Journal of Population Sciences*
Spring 2013

*This journal has just become an open access journal:

Blast from the Past

Sunday’s Washington Post had an article on the divergent amounts spent on the elderly versus children. This was the theme of Sam Preston’s 1984 PAA Presidential address:

Feds spend $7 on elderly for every $1 on kids
Ezra Klein | Washington Post (WonkBlog)
February 15, 2013
The bulk of this article is based on a report from the Urban Institute.

Kids’ Share 2012: Report on Federal Expenditures on Children Through 2011
Julia Isaacs, | The Urban Institute

Children and the Elderly: Divergent Paths for America’s Dependents
Sam Preston | Demography
November 1984

Getting to the Root of Aging

Getting to the Root of Aging by Annette Baudisch and James W. Vaupel
from recent issue of Science

As people live longer, the question arises of how malleable aging is and whether it can be slowed or postponed. The classic evolutionary theories of aging (1—4) provide the theoretical framework that has guided aging research for 60 years. Are the theories consistent with recent evidence?

Population Aging Will Have Long-Term Implications for Economy; Major Policy Changes Needed

National Academy of Sciences news release: The aging of the U.S. population will have broad economic consequences for the country, particularly for federal programs that support the elderly, and its long-term effects on all generations will be mediated by how — and how quickly — the nation responds, says a new congressionally mandated report from the National Research Council. More information at

The Older Population in the US: Census 2010 & Projections

Census 2010 Brief: The Older Population, 2010
Executive Summary
Census 2010 News Brief

And some projections to 2050

THE NEXT FOUR DECADES: The Older Population in the United States: 2010 to 2050
Population Estimates and Projections | Census Bureau
May 2010

Demographic Methods

Here’s a nice article that compares the demographic future of China and the US. It would be nice reading in a demographic methods course:

Demography: China’s Achilles Heel
The Economist
April 21, 2012

Was Gompertz Right After All?

Death Gets in the Way of Old-Age Gains
Carl Bialik | Wall Street Journal
March 2, 2012
This study suggests that a previously detected slowdown in mortality growth after age 88 didn’t exist among Americans born between 1875 and 1895. This finding coupled with a lower-than-expected count of U.S. centenarians in the 2010 census, has some demographers re-examining their beliefs about how well people who survive to old ages stave off death.

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File
Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova | North American Actuarial Journal
Volume 15, Number 4

The Retirement Prospects of Divorced Women

By: Barbara Butrica & Karen E. Smith
Source: The Urban Institute


Older divorced women are more likely to be poor than other older women, and historical divorce and remarriage trends suggest that in the future a larger share of retired women will be divorced. This article uses the MINT model to project the retirement resources and well-being of divorced women. We find that Social Security benefits and retirement incomes are projected to increase for divorced women and that their poverty rates are projected to decline, due to women’s increasing lifetime earnings. However, not all divorced women will be equally well off; economic well-being in retirement varies by Social Security benefit type.

Full report (PDF)

Social Security State Quick Fact Sheets: 2011

By: AARP Research & Strategic Analysis (Surveys and Statistics)
Source: AARP

From the summary:

This set of fact sheets provides a one-page overview of quick facts on Social Security for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Information is provided about each state’s older population, average personal income, Social Security beneficiaries, Social Security benefits, Social Security’s role in lifting retirees out of poverty, and Social Security’s income percentages among older residents’ income.

State Fact Sheets (2011)
2005; 2008