Archive for the 'Population Dynamics - Urbanization, Migration' Category

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Demographic Potential: revisiting an old technique/methodology

The potential demography: a tool for evaluating differences among countries in the European Union
Gian Carlo Blangiardo and Stefania M. L. Rimoldi
Genus: Journal of Population Sciences*
Spring 2013

*This journal has just become an open access journal:

Big Data Reveals Job Change

Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880-2000
Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch, Stephen J. Redding | NBER Working Paper 18715
January 2013

In this study, economists Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch, and Stephen J. Redding analyze the verbs used to describe jobs in the U.S. Dictionary of Occupational Titles during a 120 year time period. They do this by geographic area, correlating their findings with the spread of telephone service and transportation networks. They discover “a systematic reallocation of employment over time towards interactive occupations, which involve tasks described by verbs that appear in thesaurus categories concerned with thought, communication and inter-social activity.”

Tip from @TrendCop via Twitter

Using Wild Data to Estimate International Migration

A previous post described several studies based on non-survey data, which inform demographic events. The following is another very creative example:

You are where you e-mail: using e-mail data to estimate international migration rates
Emilio Zagheni and Ingmar Weber | Max Planck Institute & Yahoo! Research
Proceedings of the 3rd Annual ACM Web Science Conference [Pages 348-351]
June 22-24, 2012

Demography 101: Do not ignore age structure

In a campaign speech, Romney announced that the unemployment rate was really 11 percent. He was driven to come up with that number since the unemployment rate fell below 8 percent with the October jobs report. But, he made an error. He ignored the changing age structure, e.g., the leading edge of the baby boomers, who have retired.

This is a good example for a quantitative reasoning class. A fuller explanation of the issue follows in the post by Mulligan.

Fact-Check: An 11 Percent Unemployment Rate?
Catherine Rampell | Economix Blog, The New York Times
October 5, 2012

The Baby Boom and Economic Recovery
Casey Mulligan | Economix Blog, The New York Times
October 10, 2012

The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties

by Seth Motel and Eileen Patten
Source: Pew Research Center, Hispanic Center

From Overview:

Among the 50.7 million Hispanics in the United States, nearly two-thirds (65%), or 33 million, self-identify as being of Mexican origin, according to tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. No other Hispanic subgroup rivals the size of the Mexican-origin population. Puerto Ricans, the nation’s second largest Hispanic origin group, make up just 9% of the total Hispanic population in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Overall, the 10 largest Hispanic origin groups—Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Guatemalans, Colombians, Hondurans, Ecuadorians and Peruvians—make up 92% of the U.S. Hispanic population. Six Hispanic origin groups have populations greater than 1 million.

Complete Report (PDF)

The Rise of Asian Americans

Source: Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends

From overview:

Asian Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States. They are more satisfied than the general public with their lives, finances and the direction of the country, and they place more value than other Americans do on marriage, parenthood, hard work and career success, according to a comprehensive new nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center.

A century ago, most Asian Americans were low-skilled, low-wage laborers crowded into ethnic enclaves and targets of official discrimination. Today they are the most likely of any major racial or ethnic group in America to live in mixed neighborhoods and to marry across racial lines.

Report by chapter and other materials (HTML)
Compete Report (PDF)
Topline Questionnaire (PDF)

Census Bureau Estimates, 2011

The Census Bureau released estimates of places in late June.


Note that these estimates use a different algorithm than the state/county population estimates released earlier this year. Estimates for places are based on housing unit methodology. The estimates for states and counties are based on vital statistics (births, deaths) and an estimate of migration.

This makes a difference if one is comparing Detroit or Cleveland, which are both sub-county population estimates as compared to Baltimore, which is a county equivalent.

The results for Michigan show Detroit losing 3% of its population and remaining just above 700,000. All other places within Wayne County have very similar rates – with most of the difference due to the variations in the distribution of the GQ and household populations across these communities.

On the other hand, the Population Estimates for places produced by the Southeastern Michigan Census Council (SEMCOG) show quite a bit of variation within counties. Hamtramck grew by 2.1%, while Detroit and Highland Park declined by 4% and 6.6% respectively.

And, big picture-wise, Texas is home to 8 of the 15 most rapidly growing cities. [Press Release]

NSF Funding Solicitation Changes

NSF 12-105
Dear Colleague Letter

Proposal Solicitation and Evaluation Changes for the Geography and Spatial Sciences (GSS) Program
July 5, 2012

Effective immediately, GSS will conduct one annual competition for new research proposals submitted to the program. The next deadline for submission of these proposals is September 13, 2012. Starting in 2013, the proposal-submission deadline will be the first Thursday in September.

[Full statement]

Migration and sustainable development

Source: United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development


As discussions for Rio+20 progress, migration has been recognized for its increasing importance and relevance to the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as for its influence on all regions of the world. This issues brief serves as a contribution to the discussions: it provides an overview of migration in the context of sustainable development, reviews related international commitments and their achievements since the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and sketches a way forward for future discussions.

Full text (PDF)

The Older Population in the US: Census 2010 & Projections

Census 2010 Brief: The Older Population, 2010
Executive Summary
Census 2010 News Brief

And some projections to 2050

THE NEXT FOUR DECADES: The Older Population in the United States: 2010 to 2050
Population Estimates and Projections | Census Bureau
May 2010