Archive for the 'Population Dynamics - Urbanization, Migration' Category

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Demography 101: Do not ignore age structure

In a campaign speech, Romney announced that the unemployment rate was really 11 percent. He was driven to come up with that number since the unemployment rate fell below 8 percent with the October jobs report. But, he made an error. He ignored the changing age structure, e.g., the leading edge of the baby boomers, who have retired.

This is a good example for a quantitative reasoning class. A fuller explanation of the issue follows in the post by Mulligan.

Fact-Check: An 11 Percent Unemployment Rate?
Catherine Rampell | Economix Blog, The New York Times
October 5, 2012

The Baby Boom and Economic Recovery
Casey Mulligan | Economix Blog, The New York Times
October 10, 2012

The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties

by Seth Motel and Eileen Patten
Source: Pew Research Center, Hispanic Center

From Overview:

Among the 50.7 million Hispanics in the United States, nearly two-thirds (65%), or 33 million, self-identify as being of Mexican origin, according to tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. No other Hispanic subgroup rivals the size of the Mexican-origin population. Puerto Ricans, the nation’s second largest Hispanic origin group, make up just 9% of the total Hispanic population in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Overall, the 10 largest Hispanic origin groups—Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Guatemalans, Colombians, Hondurans, Ecuadorians and Peruvians—make up 92% of the U.S. Hispanic population. Six Hispanic origin groups have populations greater than 1 million.

Complete Report (PDF)

The Rise of Asian Americans

Source: Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends

From overview:

Asian Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States. They are more satisfied than the general public with their lives, finances and the direction of the country, and they place more value than other Americans do on marriage, parenthood, hard work and career success, according to a comprehensive new nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center.

A century ago, most Asian Americans were low-skilled, low-wage laborers crowded into ethnic enclaves and targets of official discrimination. Today they are the most likely of any major racial or ethnic group in America to live in mixed neighborhoods and to marry across racial lines.

Report by chapter and other materials (HTML)
Compete Report (PDF)
Topline Questionnaire (PDF)

Census Bureau Estimates, 2011

The Census Bureau released estimates of places in late June.


Note that these estimates use a different algorithm than the state/county population estimates released earlier this year. Estimates for places are based on housing unit methodology. The estimates for states and counties are based on vital statistics (births, deaths) and an estimate of migration.

This makes a difference if one is comparing Detroit or Cleveland, which are both sub-county population estimates as compared to Baltimore, which is a county equivalent.

The results for Michigan show Detroit losing 3% of its population and remaining just above 700,000. All other places within Wayne County have very similar rates – with most of the difference due to the variations in the distribution of the GQ and household populations across these communities.

On the other hand, the Population Estimates for places produced by the Southeastern Michigan Census Council (SEMCOG) show quite a bit of variation within counties. Hamtramck grew by 2.1%, while Detroit and Highland Park declined by 4% and 6.6% respectively.

And, big picture-wise, Texas is home to 8 of the 15 most rapidly growing cities. [Press Release]

NSF Funding Solicitation Changes

NSF 12-105
Dear Colleague Letter

Proposal Solicitation and Evaluation Changes for the Geography and Spatial Sciences (GSS) Program
July 5, 2012

Effective immediately, GSS will conduct one annual competition for new research proposals submitted to the program. The next deadline for submission of these proposals is September 13, 2012. Starting in 2013, the proposal-submission deadline will be the first Thursday in September.

[Full statement]

Migration and sustainable development

Source: United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development


As discussions for Rio+20 progress, migration has been recognized for its increasing importance and relevance to the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as for its influence on all regions of the world. This issues brief serves as a contribution to the discussions: it provides an overview of migration in the context of sustainable development, reviews related international commitments and their achievements since the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and sketches a way forward for future discussions.

Full text (PDF)

The Older Population in the US: Census 2010 & Projections

Census 2010 Brief: The Older Population, 2010
Executive Summary
Census 2010 News Brief

And some projections to 2050

THE NEXT FOUR DECADES: The Older Population in the United States: 2010 to 2050
Population Estimates and Projections | Census Bureau
May 2010

Demographic Methods

Here’s a nice article that compares the demographic future of China and the US. It would be nice reading in a demographic methods course:

Demography: China’s Achilles Heel
The Economist
April 21, 2012

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero – and Perhaps Less

Mexican Immigration to U.S. Slowed Significantly, Report Says
Julia Preston | New York Times
April 23, 2012
The Pew Hispanic Center [see below for full report] said that not only did immigration come to a near halt after years of growth but also the number of Mexicans leaving rose sharply.

Tide Turns on Border Crossing
Miriam Jordan | Wall Street Journal
April 23, 2012

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero – and Perhaps Less
Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera | Pew Hispanic Center
April 23, 2012
[Executive Summary] | [Full Report]

The Asian Population: 2010

2010 Census Shows Asians are Fastest-Growing Race Group
By: Elizabeth M. Hoeffel, Sonya Rastogi, Myoung Ouk Kim, and Hasan Shahid
Source: United States Census Bureau

From press release:

The U.S. Census Bureau today released a 2010 Census brief, The Asian Population: 2010 [PDF], that shows the Asian population grew faster than any other race group over the last decade. The population that identified as Asian, either alone or in combination with one or more other races, grew by 45.6 percent from 2000 to 2010, while those who identified as Asian alone grew by 43.3 percent. Both populations grew at a faster rate than the total U.S. population, which increased by 9.7 percent from 2000 to 2010.

Out of the total U.S. population, 14.7 million people, or 4.8 percent, were Asian alone. In addition, 2.6 million people, or another 0.9 percent, reported Asian in combination with one or more other races. Together, these two groups totaled 17.3 million people. Thus, 5.6 percent of all people in the United States identified as Asian, either alone or in combination with one or more other races.

2010 Census Brief (PDF)