Archive for the 'Population Dynamics – Urbanization, Migration' Category

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Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Population Expected to Reach Historic High by 2060

The Pew Research Center FactTank examines the new Census Bureau population projections and finds “the nation’s foreign-born population is projected to reach 78 million by 2060, making up 18.8% of the total U.S. population…with the bureau projecting that the previous record high of 14.8% in 1890 will be passed as soon as 2025.”

Pew Research Center article
2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables

Urban Models and Urban Center

Peter Gordon examines the way central business districts and sub-centers are defined by economists:

Following Milton Friedman’s suggestion that economic models be judged not by the plausibility of their assumptions, but by their ability to predict, Queen Elizabeth asked some of LSE’s finest why they did not see the Great Recession coming. Ouch!

U.S. Population Projections

A new U.S. Census Bureau Report analyzing U.S. population projections: Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014-2060.

From the introduction:

Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the overall rate of net international migration. By 2030, one in five Americans is projected to be 65 and over; by 2044, more than half of all Americans are projected to belong to a minority group (any group other than non-Hispanic White alone); and by 2060, nearly one in five of the nation’s total population is projected to be foreign born.

H/T: Data Detectives

Population Trends in U.S. Cities

A new U.S. Census Current Population Report (PDF) examines the ways populations in U.S. cities changed between 2010 and 2013.

From the introduction:

Nearly two-thirds of Americans live in incorporated places, commonly referred to as cities. As the majority of the nation’s population lives in cities, patterns of population change among cities and the social and economic conditions affecting them often represent national trends. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 censuses and 2013 population estimates, this report examines the population in cities and highlights how city populations changed between 2000 and 2010, and between 2010 and 2013. The report discusses the distribution of the population in cities by region, state, and city population size. It also highlights the fastest growing cities, city population densities, annexation, and new incorporations between 2010 and 2013.

The New York State Data Center Affiliates wrote this report up in a March 4 post for their Data Detectives blog.

Another take on gentrification

Gentrification in America Report
Mike Maciag | Governing
February 2015
This resource is city-specific and provides both counts and maps of gentrified census tracts for the 50 largest cities. To be eligible for gentrification a census tract’s median household income and median home value were both in the bottom 40th percentile of all tracts within a metro area at the beginning of the decade. The gentrified tracts recorded increases in the top third percentile for both measures when compared to all others in a metro area.

Methodology

And more broadly, this resource has a special issue on gentrification:

The G-Word: A Special Series on Gentrification
The titles in this series are:
Do Cities Need Kids?
The Neighborhood Has Gentrified, But Where’s the Grocery Store?
Just Green Enough
Gentrification’s Not So Black and White After All
The Downsides of a Neighborhood ‘Turnaround
Some Cities Are Spurring the End of Sprawl
Keeping Cities from Becoming “Child-Free Zones”
From Vacant to Vibrant: Cincinnati’s Urban Transformation
Can Cities Change the Face of Biking?

Segregation in 20th Century America

Emily Badger of Wonkblog discusses a new study by Trevon Logan and John Parman which examines the rise of segregation in the United States from 1880 to 1940 using the Census records gathered by counters walking door-to-door, “They show patterns of fine-grained racial segregation that are impossible to see in public Census data today where privacy concerns override precision.”

Read the full Wonkblog article.
Logan and Parman’s paper, “The National Rise in Residential Segregation”.

Comparing 4 World Cities

Ricky Burdett of LSE Cities compares the economic, political and environmental shifts in London, Delhi, Tokyo, and Bogota in an article for the Guardian.

Hispanic Segregation

Ana Swanson at WonkBlog discusses a map by William H. Frey showing the areas of the countries where Hispanics are segregated.

Millennials are projected to outnumber Baby Boomers

Richard Fry of Pew Research Center examines new released Census Bureau population projections. The generation born between 1981 and 1997 continues to grow while the Baby Boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) is shrinking and they are expected to outnumber the Boomers this year. The comments on the article provide an interesting discussion of the boundaries of generations.

Read the full analysis.

City Limits and City Growth

Kirk Goldsberry from the FiveThirtyEight blog responses to an op-ed in the Washington Post about the changing demographics of U.S. cities.

The Washington Post argues that the growth of cities results in a loss of African-Americans. FiveThirtyEight argues that spatial growth and demographic growth are different and the way city limits are defined complicates the definition of a city’s population.

Read the Washington Post op-ed here. And the FiveThirtyEight piece here.