Archive for the 'Working Papers' Category

Working Papers From the NBER

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach
by Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song, Amir Yaron #20303
Abstract; PDF

The Persistence and Heterogeneity of Health among Older Americans
by Florian Heiss, Steven F. Venti, David A. Wise #20306
Abstract; PDF

The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach
by Guido Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda, Henry E. Siu #20307
Abstract; PDF

Expanding the School Breakfast Program: Impacts on Children’s Consumption, Nutrition and Health
by Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Mary Zaki #20308
Abstract; PDF

When Incentives Matter Too Much: Explaining Significant Responses to Irrelevant Information
by Thomas Ahn, Jacob L. Vigdor #20321
Abstract; PDF

Finite Population Causal Standard Errors
by Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge #20325
Abstract; PDF

Should Student Employment Be Subsidized? Conditional Counterfactuals and the Outcomes of Work-Study Participation
by Judith Scott-Clayton, Veronica Minaya #20329
Abstract; PDF

Non-Adherence In Health Care: A Positive and Normative Analysis
by Mark Egan, Tomas J. Philipson #20330
Abstract; PDF

Medical Marijuana Laws and Teen Marijuana Use
by D. Mark Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, Daniel I. Rees #20332
Abstract; PDF

Broken or Fixed Effects?
by Charles E. Gibbons, Juan Carlos Suarez Serrato, Michael B. Urbancic #20342
Abstract; PDF

How Does Family Health Care Use Respond to Economic Shocks? Realized and Anticipated Effects
by Alan C. Monheit, Irina Grafova, Rizie Kumar #20348
Abstract; PDF

Urban Vibrancy and Corporate Growth
by Casey Dougal, Christopher A. Parsons, Sheridan Titman #20350
Abstract; PDF

The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones
by Solomon M. Hsiang, Amir S. Jina #20352
Abstract; PDF

Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit
by Joanne W. Hsu, David A. Matsa, Brian T. Melzer #20353
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall
by Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, Stephen J. Redding, Daniel M. Sturm, Nikolaus Wolf #20354
Abstract; PDF

Affirmative Action Bans and Black Admission Outcomes: Selection-Corrected Estimates from UC Law Schools
by Danny Yagan #20361
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers From the NBER

Learning Millennial-Style
by Bruce I. Carlin, Li Jiang, Stephen A. Spiller #20268
Abstract; PDF

Educational Assortative Mating and Household Income Inequality
by Lasse Eika, Magne Mogstad, Basit Zafar #20271
Abstract; PDF

Fertility Decline and Missing Women
by Seema Jayachandran #20272
Abstract; PDF

Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation
by Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Lawrence F. Katz #20273
Abstract; PDF

Tractable and Consistent Random Graph Models
by Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Matthew O. Jackson #20276
Abstract; PDF

Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation
by Brian Beach, Joseph Ferrie, Martin Saavedra, Werner Troesken #20279
Abstract; PDF

The Prison Boom and the Lack of Black Progress after Smith and Welch
by Derek Neal, Armin Rick #20283
Abstract; PDF

Improving Educational Outcomes in Developing Countries: Lessons from Rigorous Evaluations
by Richard Murnane, Alejandro J. Ganimian #20284
Abstract; PDF

What Policies Increase Prosocial Behavior? An Experiment with Referees at the Journal of Public Economics
by Raj Chetty, Emmanuel Saez, Laszlo Sandor #20290
Abstract; PDF

Unhappy Cities
by Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Oren Ziv #20291
Abstract; PDF

Inducing Leaders to Take Risky Decisions: Dismissal, Tenure, and Term Limits
by Philippe Aghion, Matthew Jackson #20301
Abstract; PDF

Marital Disruption and Health Insurance
by H. Elizabeth Peters, Kosali Simon, Jamie Rubenstein Taber #20233
Abstract; PDF

Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity
by Stephen J. Redding, Matthew A. Turner #20235
Abstract; PDF

Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving
by Benjamin Hansen #20243
Abstract; PDF

Life Cycle Earnings, Education Premiums and Internal Rates of Return
by Manudeep Bhuller, Magne Mogstad, Kjell G. Salvanes #20250
Abstract; PDF

Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce Cheng Wong #20251
Abstract; PDF

Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine #20195
Abstract; PDF

Heterogeneity in the Value of Life
by Joseph E. Aldy, Seamus J. Smyth #20206
Abstract; PDF

Parenting with Style: Altruism and Paternalism in Intergenerational Preference Transmission
by Matthias Doepke, Fabrizio Zilibotti #20214
Abstract; PDF

Flaking Out: Student Absences and Snow Days as Disruptions of Instructional Time
by Joshua Goodman #20221
Abstract; PDF

“Sticker Shock” in Individual Insurance under Health Reform
by Mark Pauly, Scott Harrington, Adam Leive #20223
Abstract; PDF

Intrahousehold Inequality
by Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Costas Meghir #20191
Abstract; PDF

Impact of Premium Subsidies on the Take-up of Health Insurance: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
by Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20196
Abstract; PDF

Women’s Income and Marriage Markets in the United States: Evidence from the Civil War Pension
by Laura Salisbury #20201
Abstract; PDF

Access to Health Insurance and the Use of Inpatient Medical Care: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Mandate
by Yaa Akosa Antwi, Asako S. Moriya, Kosali Simon #20202
Abstract; PDF

QSEP Research Reports

Population Consequences of Male Selection at Birth When The Sex Probabilities Can Be Altered
by Frank T. Denton and Byron G. Spencer
We explore the implications of male preference stopping rules for a stable population, and more generally the aggregate implications of higher male/female birth ratios. We begin by specifying nine alternative family stopping rules, derive their probability functions, and simulate the long-run effects on population growth rates and age and sex ratios. We then move away from the idea of explicit stopping rules and simulate the population effects of 81 alternative combinations of birth sex ratios and fertility rates under (implicit) preference for male children. The results show how male preference and fertility choices at the individual family level can affect the overall characteristics of a population.
Download PDF

Changes in Wage Distributions of Wage Earners in Canada: 2000-2005
by Kao-Lee Liaw and Lei Xu
This research attempts to figure out whether the wage distributions of Canadian wage earners have been moving towards or away from the flowing three ideals in the early part of the 21th century. First, there be a pattern of wage increase that is shared by a large majority of wage earners. Second, the historical gender inequality in wage be reduced. Third, there be a decrease in wage inequality for both males and females. We use the long-form records of the 2001 and 2006 population censuses to carry out our investigation. A nice feature of these records is that the values of income variables are not top-coded so that the true averages will not be understated and good insights into the situations of those with extremely high incomes can be obtained. We are disappointed by finding that the Canadian economy mostly drifted away from our three ideals, with the main exception being that for female wage earners the improvement in wage was fortunately shared by a large majority. We believe that an important reason for our disappointing finding is the progressive entrenchment of market fundamentalism in Canada. Incidentally, we have discovered that Statistics Canada did a good job in designing the 2006 census questionnaire so that the annoying choppiness that occurred to the 2000 wage distributions vanished in the 2005 wage distributions.
Download PDF

Working Papers from NBER

The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana, Alcohol, and Hard Drug Use
by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings #20085
Abstract; PDF

The Long Term Impact of Cash Transfers to Poor Families
by Anna Aizer, Shari Eli, Joseph Ferrie, Adriana Lleras-Muney #20103
Abstract; PDF

Race, Ethnicity, and Discriminatory Zoning
by Allison Shertzer, Tate Twinam, Randall P. Walsh #20108
Abstract; PDF

Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk
by George M. Constantinides, Anisha Ghosh #20110
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply
by Laura Dague, Thomas DeLeire, Lindsey Leininger #20111
Abstract; PDF

Effects of Maternal Depression on Family Food Insecurity
by Kelly Noonan, Hope Corman, Nancy E. Reichman #20113
Abstract; PDF

Immigration, Search, and Redistribution: A Quantitative Assessment of Native Welfare
by Michele Battisti, Gabriel Felbermayr, Giovanni Peri, Panu Poutvaara #20131
Abstract; PDF

The Behavioralist as Nutritionist: Leveraging Behavioral Economics To Improve Child Food Choice and Consumption
by John A. List, Anya Savikhin Samek #20132
Abstract; PDF

Can Variation in Subgroups’ Average Treatment Effects Explain Treatment Effect Heterogeneity? Evidence from a Social Experiment
by Marianne P. Bitler, Jonah B. Gelbach, Hilary W. Hoynes #20142
Abstract; PDF

Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data
by Abhijit Banerjee, Xin Meng, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian #20050
Abstract; PDF

The Distributional Preferences of Americans
by Raymond Fisman, Pamela Jakiela, Shachar Kariv #20145
Abstract; PDF

How Did Distributional Preferences Change During the Great Recession?
by Raymond Fisman, Pamela Jakiela, Shachar Kariv #20146
Abstract; PDF

Impacts of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Provision on Health-Related Outcomes of Young Adults
by Silvia Barbaresco, Charles J. Courtemanche, Yanling Qi #20148
Abstract; PDF

Who do Unions Target? Unionization over the Life-Cycle of U.S. Businesses
by Emin M. Dinlersoz, Jeremy Greenwood, Henry R. Hyatt #20151
Abstract; PDF

A Revealed Preference Approach to the Elicitation of Political Attitudes: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Americanism in Pakistan
by Leonardo Bursztyn, Michael J. Callen, Bruno Ferman, Syed Ali Hasanain, Noam Yuchtman #20153
Abstract; PDF

When Does Education Matter? The Protective Effect of Education for Cohorts Graduating in Bad Times
by David M. Cutler, Wei Huang, Adriana Lleras-Muney #20156
Abstract; PDF

Public Health Insurance Expansions and Hospital Technology Adoption
by Seth M. Freedman, Haizhen Lin, Kosali I. Simon #20159
Abstract; PDF

Collusion at the Extensive Margin
by Martin Byford, Joshua Gans #20163
Abstract; PDF

Human Capital Effects of Anti-Poverty Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Housing Voucher Lottery
by Brian Jacob, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig #20164
Abstract; PDF

The Career Prospects of Overeducated Americans
by Brian Clark, Clement Joubert, Arnaud Maurel #20167
Abstract; PDF

To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda
by Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Margaret McConnell, Pia Raffler #20170
Abstract; PDF

Culture: Persistence and Evolution
by Francesco Giavazzi, Ivan Petkov, Fabio Schiantarelli #20174
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Child Health Insurance Access on Schooling: Evidence from Public Insurance Expansions
by Sarah Cohodes, Samuel Kleiner, Michael F. Lovenheim, Daniel Grossman #20178
Abstract; PDF

Social Distance and Quality Ratings in Charity Choice
by Alexander L. Brown, Jonathan Meer, J. Forrest Williams #20182
Abstract; PDF

Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis
by Robert E. Hall #20183
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from NBER

An Empirical Model of Wage Dispersion with Sorting
by Jesper Bagger, Rasmus Lentz #20031
Abstract; PDF

Retirement, Early Retirement and Disability: Explaining Labor Force Participation after 55 in France
by Luc Behaghel, Didier Blanchet, Muriel Roger #20030
Abstract; PDF

Health Status, Disability and Retirement Incentives in Belgium
by Alain Jousten, Mathieu Lefebvre, Sergio Perelman #20035
Abstract; PDF

Health Care in a Multipayer System: The Effects of Health Care Service Demand among Adults under 65 on Utilization and Outcomes in Medicare
by Sherry A. Glied #20045
Abstract; PDF

Place-Based Policies
by David Neumark, Helen Simpson #20049
Abstract; PDF

How Do Providers Respond to Public Health Insurance Expansions? Evidence from Adult Medicaid Dental Benefits
by Thomas C. Buchmueller, Sarah Miller, Marko Vujicic #20053
Abstract; PDF

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models
by Marco Del Negro, Marc P. Giannoni, Frank Schorfheide #20055
Abstract; PDF

Promise Scholarship Programs as Place-Making Policy: Evidence from School Enrollment and Housing Prices
by Michael LeGower, Randall Walsh #20056
Abstract; PDF

Co-residence, Life-Cycle Savings and Inter-generational Support in Urban China
by Mark R. Rosenzweig, Junsen Zhang #20057
Abstract; PDF

Bequests and Heterogeneity in Retirement Wealth
by Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang #20058
Abstract; PDF

Economic Well-being and Anti-Semitic, Xenophobic, and Racist Attitudes in Germany
by Naci H. Mocan, Christian Raschke #20059
Abstract; PDF

Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market
by Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Abigail Wozniak #20065
Abstract; PDF

Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink
by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson #20064
Abstract; PDF

Job Displacement and the Duration of Joblessness: The Role of Spatial Mismatch
by Fredrik Andersson, John C. Haltiwanger, Mark J. Kutzbach, Henry O. Pollakowski, Daniel H. Weinberg #20066
Abstract; PDF

On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides
by Nicolas Ajzenman, Sebastian Galiani, Enrique Seira #20067
Abstract; PDF

Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment
by Abigail K. Wozniak #20095
Abstract; PDF

Is Smoking Inferior? Evidence from Variation in the Earned Income Tax Credit
by Donald S. Kenkel, Maximilian D. Schmeiser, Carly J. Urban #20097
Abstract; PDF

Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics
by Charles F. Manski #20098
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from NBER

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows
by Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, Margaret C. Levenstein, Christopher Re, Matthew D. Shapiro #20010
Abstract; PDF

Why Stars Matter
by Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, Alexander Oettl #20012
Abstract; PDF

Preferences, Selection, and Value Added: A Structural Approach
by Saziye Pelin Akyol, Kala Krishna #20013
Abstract; PDF

The Impact of Emerging Climate Risks on Urban Real Estate Price Dynamics
by Devin Bunten, Matthew E. Kahn #20018
Abstract; PDF

The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic
by Casey B. Mulligan #20020
Abstract; PDF

How Much Favorable Selection Is Left in Medicare Advantage?
by Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu, Thomas G. McGuire #20021
Abstract; PDF

Behavioral and Descriptive Forms of Choice Models
by Ariel Pakes #20022
Abstract; PDF

Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Networks
by Vasco Carvalho, Nico Voigtlaender #20025
Abstract; PDF

Which Peers Matter? The Relative Impacts of Collaborators, Colleagues, and Competitors
by George J. Borjas, Kirk B. Doran #20026
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from the NBER

Equalizing Superstars: The Internet and the Democratization of Education
by Daron Acemoglu, David Laibson, John A. List #19851
Abstract; PDF

Institutions, Human Capital and Development
by Daron Acemoglu, Francisco A. Gallego, James A. Robinson #19933
Abstract; PDF

Heterogeneous Paths Through College: Detailed Patterns and Relationships with Graduation and Earnings
by Rodney Andrews, Jing Li, Michael F. Lovenheim #19935
Abstract; PDF

Breastfeeding and Child Disability: A Comparison of Siblings from the United States
by George L. Wehby #19940
Abstract; PDF

Effects of Prescription Drug Insurance on Hospitalization and Mortality: Evidence from Medicare Part D
by Robert Kaestner, Cuiping Long, G. Caleb Alexander #19948
Abstract; PDF

The Sad Truth About Happiness Scales
by Timothy N. Bond, Kevin Lang #19950
Abstract; PDF

Negative Tests and the Efficiency of Medical Care: What Determines Heterogeneity in Imaging Behavior?
by Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha, Christopher Kabrhel, Ali Raja, Arjun Venkatesh #19956
Abstract; PDF

Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples
by Guido W. Imbens #19959
Abstract; PDF

Empowering Women: The Effect of Schooling on Young Women’s Knowledge and Use of Contraception
by Mabel Andalon, Jenny Williams, Michael Grossman #19961
Abstract; PDF

Aspirations and Inequality
by Garance Genicot, Debraj Ray #19976
Abstract; PDF

Does grief transfer across generations? In-utero deaths and child outcomes
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Kjell G. Salvanes #19979
Abstract; PDF

Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician’s Perspective
by Guido W. Imbens #19983
Abstract; PDF

Education, Health and Wages
by James J. Heckman, John Eric Humphries, Gregory Veramendi, Sergio Urzua #19971
Abstract; PDF

Who Benefits when the Government Pays More? Pass-Through in the Medicare Advantage Program
by Mark Duggan, Amanda Starc, Boris Vabson #19989
Abstract; PDF

Risk Adjustment of Health Plan Payments to Correct Inefficient Plan Choice from Adverse Selection
by Jacob Glazer, Thomas G. McGuire, Julie Shi #19998
Abstract; PDF

Option Value of Work, Health Status, and Retirement Decisions in Japan: Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)
by Satoshi Shimizutani, Takashi Oshio, Mayu Fujii #20001
Abstract; PDF

Does Classroom Time Matter? A Randomized Field Experiment of Hybrid and Traditional Lecture Formats in Economics
by Theodore J. Joyce, Sean Crockett, David A. Jaeger, Onur Altindag, Stephen D. O’Connell #20006
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from the NBER

Voting to Tell Others
by Stefano DellaVigna, John A. List, Ulrike Malmendier, Gautam Rao
Abstract; PDF

Can You Leave High School Behind?
by Sandra E. Black, Jane Arnold Lincove, Jenna Cullinane, Rachel Veron
Abstract; PDF

Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez
Abstract; PDF

Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner
Abstract; PDF

Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth – Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?
by Isaac Ehrlich, Yong Yin
Abstract; PDF

How Johnson Fought the War on Poverty: The Economics and Politics of Funding at the Office of Economic Opportunity
by Martha J. Bailey, Nicolas J. Duquette
Abstract; PDF

The (Surprising) Efficacy of Academic and Behavioral Intervention with Disadvantaged Youth: Results from a Randomized Experiment in Chicago
by Philip J. Cook, Kenneth Dodge, George Farkas, Roland G. Fryer, Jr, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Susan Mayer, Harold Pollack, Laurence Steinberg
Abstract; PDF

Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
Abstract; PDF

Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure
by Liana Fox, Irwin Garfinkel, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, Christopher Wimer
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from the NBER

Could a Website Really Have Doomed the Health Exchanges? Multiple Equilibria, Initial Conditions and the Construction of the Fine
by Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters #19835
Abstract; PDF

Short-run Effects of Job Loss on Health Conditions, Health Insurance, and Health Care Utilization
by Jessamyn Schaller, Ann Huff Stevens #19884
Abstract; PDF

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy #19885
Abstract; PDF

Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development?
by Matthias Doepke, Michele Tertilt #19888
Abstract; PDF

Health, Financial Incentives, and Early Retirement: Micro-Simulation Evidence for Germany
by Hendrik Juerges, Lars Thiel, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Johannes Rausch, Morten Schuth, Axel Boersch-Supan #19889
Abstract; PDF

Scale and Skill in Active Management
by Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, Lucian A. Taylor #19891
Abstract; PDF

Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce C. Wong #19869
Abstract; PDF

Tobacco Control Campaign in Uruguay: Impact on Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy
by Jeffrey E. Harris, Ana Ines Balsa, Patricia Triunfo #19878
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Online Postsecondary Education: MOOCs, Nonselective Education, and Highly Selective Education
by Caroline M. Hoxby #19816
Abstract; PDF

Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality
by Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov, Cezar Santos #19829
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from the NBER

Urban Population and Amenities
by David Albouy, Bryan Stuart #19919
Abstract; PDF

Driving to Opportunity: Local Rents, Wages, Commuting Costs and Sub-Metropolitan Quality of Life
by David Albouy, Bert Lue #19922
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility
by James J. Heckman, Stefano Mosso #19925
Abstract; PDF

Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data
by Charles Courtemanche, Joshua C. Pinkston, Jay Stewart #19928
Abstract; PDF

Retirement Security in an Aging Society
by James M. Poterba #19930
Abstract; PDF

The Labor Market Effects of Reducing Undocumented Immigrants
by Andri Chassamboulli, Giovanni Peri #19932
Abstract; PDF

The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
by Robert J. Gordon #19895
Abstract; PDF

The Role of Health in Retirement
by Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier #19902
Abstract; PDF

Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance
by Jeffrey Clemens #19904
Abstract; PDF

Collaborating With People Like Me: Ethnic co-authorship within the US
by Richard B. Freeman, Wei Huang #19905
Abstract; PDF