Archive for the 'Working Papers' Category

Working Papers from NBER

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows
by Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, Margaret C. Levenstein, Christopher Re, Matthew D. Shapiro #20010
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Why Stars Matter
by Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, Alexander Oettl #20012
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Preferences, Selection, and Value Added: A Structural Approach
by Saziye Pelin Akyol, Kala Krishna #20013
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The Impact of Emerging Climate Risks on Urban Real Estate Price Dynamics
by Devin Bunten, Matthew E. Kahn #20018
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The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic
by Casey B. Mulligan #20020
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How Much Favorable Selection Is Left in Medicare Advantage?
by Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu, Thomas G. McGuire #20021
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Behavioral and Descriptive Forms of Choice Models
by Ariel Pakes #20022
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Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Networks
by Vasco Carvalho, Nico Voigtlaender #20025
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Which Peers Matter? The Relative Impacts of Collaborators, Colleagues, and Competitors
by George J. Borjas, Kirk B. Doran #20026
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Working Papers from the NBER

Equalizing Superstars: The Internet and the Democratization of Education
by Daron Acemoglu, David Laibson, John A. List #19851
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Institutions, Human Capital and Development
by Daron Acemoglu, Francisco A. Gallego, James A. Robinson #19933
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Heterogeneous Paths Through College: Detailed Patterns and Relationships with Graduation and Earnings
by Rodney Andrews, Jing Li, Michael F. Lovenheim #19935
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Breastfeeding and Child Disability: A Comparison of Siblings from the United States
by George L. Wehby #19940
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Effects of Prescription Drug Insurance on Hospitalization and Mortality: Evidence from Medicare Part D
by Robert Kaestner, Cuiping Long, G. Caleb Alexander #19948
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The Sad Truth About Happiness Scales
by Timothy N. Bond, Kevin Lang #19950
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Negative Tests and the Efficiency of Medical Care: What Determines Heterogeneity in Imaging Behavior?
by Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha, Christopher Kabrhel, Ali Raja, Arjun Venkatesh #19956
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Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples
by Guido W. Imbens #19959
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Empowering Women: The Effect of Schooling on Young Women’s Knowledge and Use of Contraception
by Mabel Andalon, Jenny Williams, Michael Grossman #19961
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Aspirations and Inequality
by Garance Genicot, Debraj Ray #19976
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Does grief transfer across generations? In-utero deaths and child outcomes
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Kjell G. Salvanes #19979
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Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician’s Perspective
by Guido W. Imbens #19983
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Education, Health and Wages
by James J. Heckman, John Eric Humphries, Gregory Veramendi, Sergio Urzua #19971
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Who Benefits when the Government Pays More? Pass-Through in the Medicare Advantage Program
by Mark Duggan, Amanda Starc, Boris Vabson #19989
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Risk Adjustment of Health Plan Payments to Correct Inefficient Plan Choice from Adverse Selection
by Jacob Glazer, Thomas G. McGuire, Julie Shi #19998
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Option Value of Work, Health Status, and Retirement Decisions in Japan: Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)
by Satoshi Shimizutani, Takashi Oshio, Mayu Fujii #20001
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Does Classroom Time Matter? A Randomized Field Experiment of Hybrid and Traditional Lecture Formats in Economics
by Theodore J. Joyce, Sean Crockett, David A. Jaeger, Onur Altindag, Stephen D. O’Connell #20006
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Working Papers from the NBER

Voting to Tell Others
by Stefano DellaVigna, John A. List, Ulrike Malmendier, Gautam Rao
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Can You Leave High School Behind?
by Sandra E. Black, Jane Arnold Lincove, Jenna Cullinane, Rachel Veron
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Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez
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Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner
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Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth – Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?
by Isaac Ehrlich, Yong Yin
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How Johnson Fought the War on Poverty: The Economics and Politics of Funding at the Office of Economic Opportunity
by Martha J. Bailey, Nicolas J. Duquette
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The (Surprising) Efficacy of Academic and Behavioral Intervention with Disadvantaged Youth: Results from a Randomized Experiment in Chicago
by Philip J. Cook, Kenneth Dodge, George Farkas, Roland G. Fryer, Jr, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Susan Mayer, Harold Pollack, Laurence Steinberg
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Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
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Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure
by Liana Fox, Irwin Garfinkel, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, Christopher Wimer
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Working Papers from the NBER

Could a Website Really Have Doomed the Health Exchanges? Multiple Equilibria, Initial Conditions and the Construction of the Fine
by Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters #19835
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Short-run Effects of Job Loss on Health Conditions, Health Insurance, and Health Care Utilization
by Jessamyn Schaller, Ann Huff Stevens #19884
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A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy #19885
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Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development?
by Matthias Doepke, Michele Tertilt #19888
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Health, Financial Incentives, and Early Retirement: Micro-Simulation Evidence for Germany
by Hendrik Juerges, Lars Thiel, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Johannes Rausch, Morten Schuth, Axel Boersch-Supan #19889
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Scale and Skill in Active Management
by Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, Lucian A. Taylor #19891
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Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce C. Wong #19869
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Tobacco Control Campaign in Uruguay: Impact on Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy
by Jeffrey E. Harris, Ana Ines Balsa, Patricia Triunfo #19878
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The Economics of Online Postsecondary Education: MOOCs, Nonselective Education, and Highly Selective Education
by Caroline M. Hoxby #19816
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Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality
by Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov, Cezar Santos #19829
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Working Papers from the NBER

Urban Population and Amenities
by David Albouy, Bryan Stuart #19919
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Driving to Opportunity: Local Rents, Wages, Commuting Costs and Sub-Metropolitan Quality of Life
by David Albouy, Bert Lue #19922
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The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility
by James J. Heckman, Stefano Mosso #19925
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Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data
by Charles Courtemanche, Joshua C. Pinkston, Jay Stewart #19928
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Retirement Security in an Aging Society
by James M. Poterba #19930
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The Labor Market Effects of Reducing Undocumented Immigrants
by Andri Chassamboulli, Giovanni Peri #19932
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The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
by Robert J. Gordon #19895
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The Role of Health in Retirement
by Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier #19902
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Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance
by Jeffrey Clemens #19904
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Collaborating With People Like Me: Ethnic co-authorship within the US
by Richard B. Freeman, Wei Huang #19905
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New Working Papers from the NBER

Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
by Marcus Hagedorn, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
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Incentives, Selection, and Teacher Performance: Evidence from IMPACT
by Thomas Dee, James Wyckoff
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Measuring the Accuracy of Survey Responses using Administrative Register Data: Evidence from Denmark
by Claus Thustrup Kreiner, David Dreyer Lassen, Soren Leth-Petersen
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Strategic Parenting, Birth Order and School Performance
by V. Joseph Hotz, Juan Pantano
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Affirmative Action: One Size Does Not Fit All
by Kala Krishna, Alexander Tarasov
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The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Force and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
by Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song, Sarah Taubman
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The Missing Manual: Using National Student Clearinghouse Data to Track Postsecondary Outcomes
by Susan M. Dynarski, Steven W. Hemelt, Joshua M. Hyman
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Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market
by Casey B. Mulligan
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The Origins of Early Childhood Anthropometric Persistence
by Daniel L. Millimet, Rusty Tchernis
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The Effect of Safety Net Programs on Food Insecurity
by Lucie Schmidt, Lara Shore-Sheppard, Tara Watson
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Income Mobility and Welfare

International Monetary Fund Working Paper
By: Tom Krebs, Pravin Krishna, and William Maloney

Abstract:

This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.

Free full text (PDF, 700KB)

New Working Papers from the NBER

Care or Cash? The Effect of Child Care Subsidies on Student Performance
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Katrine V. Loken, Kjell G. Salvanes
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The Heterogeneity of the Cigarette Price Effect on Body Mass Index
by George Wehby, Charles J. Courtemanche
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Do Welfare Policies Matter for Labor Market Aggregates? Quantifying Safety Net Work Incentives since 2007
by Casey B. Mulligan
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Age-Based Heterogeneity and Pricing Regulation on the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange
by Keith M. Marzilli Ericson, Amanda Starc
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Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Inequality in China
by James J. Heckman, Junjian Yi
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Bankruptcy as Implicit Health Insurance
by Neale Mahoney
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Men, Women, and Machines: How Trade Impacts Gender Inequality
by Chinhui Juhn, Gergely Ujhelyi, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez
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When Walmart Comes to Town: Always Low Housing Prices? Always?
by Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope
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The Effects of “Girl-Friendly” Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso
by Harounan Kazianga, Dan Levy, Leigh L. Linden, Matt Sloan
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Does Decentralization Facilitate Access to Poverty-Related Services? Evidence from Benin
by Emilie Caldeira, Martial Foucault, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi #18118 (PE)
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Tall or Taller, Pretty or Prettier: Is Discrimination Absolute or Relative?
by Daniel S. Hamermesh
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The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective
by Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Marieke Schnabel
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Taxation and Redistribution of Residual Income Inequality
by Mikhail Golosov, Pricila Maziero, Guido Menzio
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Identification of Potential Games and Demand Models for Bundles
by Jeremy T. Fox, Natalia Lazzati
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Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences in the Return to Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980-2000
by Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis
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The Aftermath of Accelerating Algebra: Evidence from a District Policy Initiative
by Charles T. Clotfelter, Helen F. Ladd, Jacob L. Vigdor
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The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance
by Steven D. Levitt, John A. List, Susanne Neckermann, Sally Sadoff
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Unobserved Heterogeneity in Matching Games
by Jeremy T. Fox, Chenyu Yang
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Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
by Charles F. Manski
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Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health
by Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, David Simon
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When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules
by John B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov
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New Working Papers from the NBER

The Opt-In Revolution? Contraception and the Gender Gap in Wages
by Martha J. Bailey, Brad Hershbein, Amalia R. Miller
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Limited Life Expectancy, Human Capital and Health Investments: Evidence from Huntington Disease
by Emily Oster, Ira Shoulson, E. Ray Dorsey
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Education, Health and Mortality: Evidence from a Social Experiment
by Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Emilia Simeonova
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Choice Probability Generating Functions
by Mogens Fosgerau, Daniel L. McFadden, Michel Bierlaire
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Measuring Total Household Spending in a Monthly Internet Survey: Evidence from the American Life Panel
by Michael D. Hurd, Susann Rohwedder
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Heterogeneity in Human Capital Investments: High School Curriculum, College Major, and Careers
by Joseph G. Altonji, Erica Blom, Costas Meghir
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On The Political Economy Of Educational Vouchers
by Dennis N. Epple, Richard Romano
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School Turnarounds: Evidence from the 2009 Stimulus
by Thomas Dee
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Trends in Occupational Segregation by Gender 1970-2009: Adjusting for the Impact of Changes in the Occupational Coding System
by Francine D. Blau, Peter Brummund, Albert Yung-Hsu Liu
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Saving Babies: The Contribution of Sheppard-Towner to the Decline in Infant Mortality in the 1920s
by Carolyn M. Moehling, Melissa A. Thomasson
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Demand for Smokeless Tobacco: Role of Magazine Advertising
by Dhaval M. Dave, Henry Saffer
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Comparing Real Wages
by Orley C. Ashenfelter
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Measuring Test Measurement Error: A General Approach
by Donald Boyd, Hamilton Lankford, Susanna Loeb, James Wyckoff
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A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration
by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Katherine Eriksson
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The Impact of Patient Cost-Sharing on the Poor: Evidence from Massachusetts
by Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Gruber, Robin McKnight
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Testing Motives for Charitable Giving: A Revealed-Preference Methodology with Experimental Evidence
by Rahul Deb, Robert S. Gazzale, Matthew J. Kotchen
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The Impact of Immigration on the Educational Attainment of Natives
by Jennifer Hunt
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Estimating the Economic Impacts of Living Wage Mandates Using Ex Ante Simulations, Longitudinal Estimates, and New Public and Administrative Data: Evidence for New York City
by David Neumark, Matthew Thompson, Francesco Brindisi, Leslie Koyle, Clayton Reck
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Weathering the Storm: Hurricanes and Birth Outcomes
by Janet Currie, Maya Rossin-Slater
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The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom
by Michael F. Lovenheim, C. Lockwood Reynolds
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New Working Papers from the NBER

Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
by Jon Faust, Abhishek Gupta
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Housing Booms and City Centers
by Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Kristina Tobio
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Estimating the Relationship between Alcohol Policies and Criminal Violence and Victimization
by Sara Markowitz, Erik Nesson, Eileen Poe-Yamagata, Curtis Florence, Partha Deb, Tracy Andrews, Sarah Beth L. Barnett
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Do High-Cost Hospitals Deliver Better Care? Evidence from Ambulance Referral Patterns
by Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., John A. Graves, Jonathan Gruber, Samuel Kleiner
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Is There “Too Much” Inequality in Health Spending Across Income Groups?
by Laurence Ales, Roozbeh Hosseini, Larry E. Jones
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School Governance, Teacher Incentives, and Pupil-Teacher Ratios: Experimental Evidence from Kenyan Primary Schools
by Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, Michael Kremer
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Price Subsidies, Diagnostic Tests, and Targeting of Malaria Treatment: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

by Jessica Cohen, Pascaline Dupas, Simone G. Schaner
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Costly Labor Adjustment: Effects of China’s Employment Regulations
by Russell Cooper, Guan Gong, Ping Yan
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Education, Cognition, Health Knowledge, and Health Behavior
by Naci H. Mocan, Duha Tore Altindag
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Who Suffers During Recessions?
by Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, Jessamyn Schaller
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On the Generalizability of Experimental Results in Economics
by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John A. List
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The Evolution of the Black-White Test Score Gap in Grades K-3: The Fragility of Results
by Timothy N. Bond, Kevin Lang
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Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate
by Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
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Why is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States so High and Why Does it Matter?
by Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
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