Archive for the 'Working Papers' Category

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Working Papers from NBER

The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana, Alcohol, and Hard Drug Use
by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings #20085
Abstract; PDF

The Long Term Impact of Cash Transfers to Poor Families
by Anna Aizer, Shari Eli, Joseph Ferrie, Adriana Lleras-Muney #20103
Abstract; PDF

Race, Ethnicity, and Discriminatory Zoning
by Allison Shertzer, Tate Twinam, Randall P. Walsh #20108
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Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk
by George M. Constantinides, Anisha Ghosh #20110
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The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply
by Laura Dague, Thomas DeLeire, Lindsey Leininger #20111
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Effects of Maternal Depression on Family Food Insecurity
by Kelly Noonan, Hope Corman, Nancy E. Reichman #20113
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Immigration, Search, and Redistribution: A Quantitative Assessment of Native Welfare
by Michele Battisti, Gabriel Felbermayr, Giovanni Peri, Panu Poutvaara #20131
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The Behavioralist as Nutritionist: Leveraging Behavioral Economics To Improve Child Food Choice and Consumption
by John A. List, Anya Savikhin Samek #20132
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Can Variation in Subgroups’ Average Treatment Effects Explain Treatment Effect Heterogeneity? Evidence from a Social Experiment
by Marianne P. Bitler, Jonah B. Gelbach, Hilary W. Hoynes #20142
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Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data
by Abhijit Banerjee, Xin Meng, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian #20050
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The Distributional Preferences of Americans
by Raymond Fisman, Pamela Jakiela, Shachar Kariv #20145
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How Did Distributional Preferences Change During the Great Recession?
by Raymond Fisman, Pamela Jakiela, Shachar Kariv #20146
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Impacts of the Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Provision on Health-Related Outcomes of Young Adults
by Silvia Barbaresco, Charles J. Courtemanche, Yanling Qi #20148
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Who do Unions Target? Unionization over the Life-Cycle of U.S. Businesses
by Emin M. Dinlersoz, Jeremy Greenwood, Henry R. Hyatt #20151
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A Revealed Preference Approach to the Elicitation of Political Attitudes: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Americanism in Pakistan
by Leonardo Bursztyn, Michael J. Callen, Bruno Ferman, Syed Ali Hasanain, Noam Yuchtman #20153
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When Does Education Matter? The Protective Effect of Education for Cohorts Graduating in Bad Times
by David M. Cutler, Wei Huang, Adriana Lleras-Muney #20156
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Public Health Insurance Expansions and Hospital Technology Adoption
by Seth M. Freedman, Haizhen Lin, Kosali I. Simon #20159
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Collusion at the Extensive Margin
by Martin Byford, Joshua Gans #20163
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Human Capital Effects of Anti-Poverty Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Housing Voucher Lottery
by Brian Jacob, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig #20164
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The Career Prospects of Overeducated Americans
by Brian Clark, Clement Joubert, Arnaud Maurel #20167
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To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda
by Greg Fischer, Dean Karlan, Margaret McConnell, Pia Raffler #20170
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Culture: Persistence and Evolution
by Francesco Giavazzi, Ivan Petkov, Fabio Schiantarelli #20174
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The Effect of Child Health Insurance Access on Schooling: Evidence from Public Insurance Expansions
by Sarah Cohodes, Samuel Kleiner, Michael F. Lovenheim, Daniel Grossman #20178
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Social Distance and Quality Ratings in Charity Choice
by Alexander L. Brown, Jonathan Meer, J. Forrest Williams #20182
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Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from the Financial Crisis
by Robert E. Hall #20183
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Working Papers from NBER

An Empirical Model of Wage Dispersion with Sorting
by Jesper Bagger, Rasmus Lentz #20031
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Retirement, Early Retirement and Disability: Explaining Labor Force Participation after 55 in France
by Luc Behaghel, Didier Blanchet, Muriel Roger #20030
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Health Status, Disability and Retirement Incentives in Belgium
by Alain Jousten, Mathieu Lefebvre, Sergio Perelman #20035
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Health Care in a Multipayer System: The Effects of Health Care Service Demand among Adults under 65 on Utilization and Outcomes in Medicare
by Sherry A. Glied #20045
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Place-Based Policies
by David Neumark, Helen Simpson #20049
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How Do Providers Respond to Public Health Insurance Expansions? Evidence from Adult Medicaid Dental Benefits
by Thomas C. Buchmueller, Sarah Miller, Marko Vujicic #20053
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Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models
by Marco Del Negro, Marc P. Giannoni, Frank Schorfheide #20055
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Promise Scholarship Programs as Place-Making Policy: Evidence from School Enrollment and Housing Prices
by Michael LeGower, Randall Walsh #20056
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Co-residence, Life-Cycle Savings and Inter-generational Support in Urban China
by Mark R. Rosenzweig, Junsen Zhang #20057
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Bequests and Heterogeneity in Retirement Wealth
by Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang #20058
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Economic Well-being and Anti-Semitic, Xenophobic, and Racist Attitudes in Germany
by Naci H. Mocan, Christian Raschke #20059
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Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market
by Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Abigail Wozniak #20065
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Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink
by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson #20064
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Job Displacement and the Duration of Joblessness: The Role of Spatial Mismatch
by Fredrik Andersson, John C. Haltiwanger, Mark J. Kutzbach, Henry O. Pollakowski, Daniel H. Weinberg #20066
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On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides
by Nicolas Ajzenman, Sebastian Galiani, Enrique Seira #20067
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Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment
by Abigail K. Wozniak #20095
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Is Smoking Inferior? Evidence from Variation in the Earned Income Tax Credit
by Donald S. Kenkel, Maximilian D. Schmeiser, Carly J. Urban #20097
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Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics
by Charles F. Manski #20098
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Working Papers from NBER

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows
by Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, Margaret C. Levenstein, Christopher Re, Matthew D. Shapiro #20010
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Why Stars Matter
by Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, Alexander Oettl #20012
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Preferences, Selection, and Value Added: A Structural Approach
by Saziye Pelin Akyol, Kala Krishna #20013
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The Impact of Emerging Climate Risks on Urban Real Estate Price Dynamics
by Devin Bunten, Matthew E. Kahn #20018
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The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic
by Casey B. Mulligan #20020
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How Much Favorable Selection Is Left in Medicare Advantage?
by Joseph P. Newhouse, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu, Thomas G. McGuire #20021
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Behavioral and Descriptive Forms of Choice Models
by Ariel Pakes #20022
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Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Networks
by Vasco Carvalho, Nico Voigtlaender #20025
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Which Peers Matter? The Relative Impacts of Collaborators, Colleagues, and Competitors
by George J. Borjas, Kirk B. Doran #20026
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Working Papers from the NBER

Equalizing Superstars: The Internet and the Democratization of Education
by Daron Acemoglu, David Laibson, John A. List #19851
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Institutions, Human Capital and Development
by Daron Acemoglu, Francisco A. Gallego, James A. Robinson #19933
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Heterogeneous Paths Through College: Detailed Patterns and Relationships with Graduation and Earnings
by Rodney Andrews, Jing Li, Michael F. Lovenheim #19935
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Breastfeeding and Child Disability: A Comparison of Siblings from the United States
by George L. Wehby #19940
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Effects of Prescription Drug Insurance on Hospitalization and Mortality: Evidence from Medicare Part D
by Robert Kaestner, Cuiping Long, G. Caleb Alexander #19948
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The Sad Truth About Happiness Scales
by Timothy N. Bond, Kevin Lang #19950
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Negative Tests and the Efficiency of Medical Care: What Determines Heterogeneity in Imaging Behavior?
by Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha, Christopher Kabrhel, Ali Raja, Arjun Venkatesh #19956
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Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples
by Guido W. Imbens #19959
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Empowering Women: The Effect of Schooling on Young Women’s Knowledge and Use of Contraception
by Mabel Andalon, Jenny Williams, Michael Grossman #19961
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Aspirations and Inequality
by Garance Genicot, Debraj Ray #19976
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Does grief transfer across generations? In-utero deaths and child outcomes
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Kjell G. Salvanes #19979
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Instrumental Variables: An Econometrician’s Perspective
by Guido W. Imbens #19983
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Education, Health and Wages
by James J. Heckman, John Eric Humphries, Gregory Veramendi, Sergio Urzua #19971
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Who Benefits when the Government Pays More? Pass-Through in the Medicare Advantage Program
by Mark Duggan, Amanda Starc, Boris Vabson #19989
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Risk Adjustment of Health Plan Payments to Correct Inefficient Plan Choice from Adverse Selection
by Jacob Glazer, Thomas G. McGuire, Julie Shi #19998
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Option Value of Work, Health Status, and Retirement Decisions in Japan: Evidence from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR)
by Satoshi Shimizutani, Takashi Oshio, Mayu Fujii #20001
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Does Classroom Time Matter? A Randomized Field Experiment of Hybrid and Traditional Lecture Formats in Economics
by Theodore J. Joyce, Sean Crockett, David A. Jaeger, Onur Altindag, Stephen D. O’Connell #20006
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Working Papers from the NBER

Voting to Tell Others
by Stefano DellaVigna, John A. List, Ulrike Malmendier, Gautam Rao
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Can You Leave High School Behind?
by Sandra E. Black, Jane Arnold Lincove, Jenna Cullinane, Rachel Veron
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Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez
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Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility
by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner
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Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth – Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?
by Isaac Ehrlich, Yong Yin
Abstract; PDF

How Johnson Fought the War on Poverty: The Economics and Politics of Funding at the Office of Economic Opportunity
by Martha J. Bailey, Nicolas J. Duquette
Abstract; PDF

The (Surprising) Efficacy of Academic and Behavioral Intervention with Disadvantaged Youth: Results from a Randomized Experiment in Chicago
by Philip J. Cook, Kenneth Dodge, George Farkas, Roland G. Fryer, Jr, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Susan Mayer, Harold Pollack, Laurence Steinberg
Abstract; PDF

Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing
by Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
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Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure
by Liana Fox, Irwin Garfinkel, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, Christopher Wimer
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Working Papers from the NBER

Could a Website Really Have Doomed the Health Exchanges? Multiple Equilibria, Initial Conditions and the Construction of the Fine
by Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters #19835
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Short-run Effects of Job Loss on Health Conditions, Health Insurance, and Health Care Utilization
by Jessamyn Schaller, Ann Huff Stevens #19884
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A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy #19885
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Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development?
by Matthias Doepke, Michele Tertilt #19888
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Health, Financial Incentives, and Early Retirement: Micro-Simulation Evidence for Germany
by Hendrik Juerges, Lars Thiel, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Johannes Rausch, Morten Schuth, Axel Boersch-Supan #19889
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Scale and Skill in Active Management
by Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, Lucian A. Taylor #19891
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Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce C. Wong #19869
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Tobacco Control Campaign in Uruguay: Impact on Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy
by Jeffrey E. Harris, Ana Ines Balsa, Patricia Triunfo #19878
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The Economics of Online Postsecondary Education: MOOCs, Nonselective Education, and Highly Selective Education
by Caroline M. Hoxby #19816
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Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality
by Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov, Cezar Santos #19829
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Working Papers from the NBER

Urban Population and Amenities
by David Albouy, Bryan Stuart #19919
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Driving to Opportunity: Local Rents, Wages, Commuting Costs and Sub-Metropolitan Quality of Life
by David Albouy, Bert Lue #19922
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The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility
by James J. Heckman, Stefano Mosso #19925
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Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data
by Charles Courtemanche, Joshua C. Pinkston, Jay Stewart #19928
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Retirement Security in an Aging Society
by James M. Poterba #19930
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The Labor Market Effects of Reducing Undocumented Immigrants
by Andri Chassamboulli, Giovanni Peri #19932
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The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
by Robert J. Gordon #19895
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The Role of Health in Retirement
by Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier #19902
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Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance
by Jeffrey Clemens #19904
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Collaborating With People Like Me: Ethnic co-authorship within the US
by Richard B. Freeman, Wei Huang #19905
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New Working Papers from the NBER

Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
by Marcus Hagedorn, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
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Incentives, Selection, and Teacher Performance: Evidence from IMPACT
by Thomas Dee, James Wyckoff
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Measuring the Accuracy of Survey Responses using Administrative Register Data: Evidence from Denmark
by Claus Thustrup Kreiner, David Dreyer Lassen, Soren Leth-Petersen
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Strategic Parenting, Birth Order and School Performance
by V. Joseph Hotz, Juan Pantano
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Affirmative Action: One Size Does Not Fit All
by Kala Krishna, Alexander Tarasov
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The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Force and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
by Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song, Sarah Taubman
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The Missing Manual: Using National Student Clearinghouse Data to Track Postsecondary Outcomes
by Susan M. Dynarski, Steven W. Hemelt, Joshua M. Hyman
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Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market
by Casey B. Mulligan
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The Origins of Early Childhood Anthropometric Persistence
by Daniel L. Millimet, Rusty Tchernis
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The Effect of Safety Net Programs on Food Insecurity
by Lucie Schmidt, Lara Shore-Sheppard, Tara Watson
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Income Mobility and Welfare

International Monetary Fund Working Paper
By: Tom Krebs, Pravin Krishna, and William Maloney

Abstract:

This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.

Free full text (PDF, 700KB)

New Working Papers from the NBER

Care or Cash? The Effect of Child Care Subsidies on Student Performance
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Katrine V. Loken, Kjell G. Salvanes
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The Heterogeneity of the Cigarette Price Effect on Body Mass Index
by George Wehby, Charles J. Courtemanche
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Do Welfare Policies Matter for Labor Market Aggregates? Quantifying Safety Net Work Incentives since 2007
by Casey B. Mulligan
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Age-Based Heterogeneity and Pricing Regulation on the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange
by Keith M. Marzilli Ericson, Amanda Starc
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Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Inequality in China
by James J. Heckman, Junjian Yi
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Bankruptcy as Implicit Health Insurance
by Neale Mahoney
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Men, Women, and Machines: How Trade Impacts Gender Inequality
by Chinhui Juhn, Gergely Ujhelyi, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez
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When Walmart Comes to Town: Always Low Housing Prices? Always?
by Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope
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The Effects of “Girl-Friendly” Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso
by Harounan Kazianga, Dan Levy, Leigh L. Linden, Matt Sloan
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Does Decentralization Facilitate Access to Poverty-Related Services? Evidence from Benin
by Emilie Caldeira, Martial Foucault, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi #18118 (PE)
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Tall or Taller, Pretty or Prettier: Is Discrimination Absolute or Relative?
by Daniel S. Hamermesh
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The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective
by Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Marieke Schnabel
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Taxation and Redistribution of Residual Income Inequality
by Mikhail Golosov, Pricila Maziero, Guido Menzio
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Identification of Potential Games and Demand Models for Bundles
by Jeremy T. Fox, Natalia Lazzati
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Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences in the Return to Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980-2000
by Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis
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The Aftermath of Accelerating Algebra: Evidence from a District Policy Initiative
by Charles T. Clotfelter, Helen F. Ladd, Jacob L. Vigdor
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The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance
by Steven D. Levitt, John A. List, Susanne Neckermann, Sally Sadoff
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Unobserved Heterogeneity in Matching Games
by Jeremy T. Fox, Chenyu Yang
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Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
by Charles F. Manski
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Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health
by Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, David Simon
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When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules
by John B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov
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