Archive for the 'Working Papers' Category

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New Working Papers from the NBER

Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
by Marcus Hagedorn, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
Abstract; PDF

Incentives, Selection, and Teacher Performance: Evidence from IMPACT
by Thomas Dee, James Wyckoff
Abstract; PDF

Measuring the Accuracy of Survey Responses using Administrative Register Data: Evidence from Denmark
by Claus Thustrup Kreiner, David Dreyer Lassen, Soren Leth-Petersen
Abstract; PDF

Strategic Parenting, Birth Order and School Performance
by V. Joseph Hotz, Juan Pantano
Abstract; PDF

Affirmative Action: One Size Does Not Fit All
by Kala Krishna, Alexander Tarasov
Abstract; PDF

The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Force and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
by Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song, Sarah Taubman
Abstract; PDF

The Missing Manual: Using National Student Clearinghouse Data to Track Postsecondary Outcomes
by Susan M. Dynarski, Steven W. Hemelt, Joshua M. Hyman
Abstract; PDF

Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market
by Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract; PDF

The Origins of Early Childhood Anthropometric Persistence
by Daniel L. Millimet, Rusty Tchernis
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Safety Net Programs on Food Insecurity
by Lucie Schmidt, Lara Shore-Sheppard, Tara Watson
Abstract; PDF

Income Mobility and Welfare

International Monetary Fund Working Paper
By: Tom Krebs, Pravin Krishna, and William Maloney

Abstract:

This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.

Free full text (PDF, 700KB)

New Working Papers from the NBER

Care or Cash? The Effect of Child Care Subsidies on Student Performance
by Sandra E. Black, Paul J. Devereux, Katrine V. Loken, Kjell G. Salvanes
Abstract; PDF

The Heterogeneity of the Cigarette Price Effect on Body Mass Index
by George Wehby, Charles J. Courtemanche
Abstract; PDF

Do Welfare Policies Matter for Labor Market Aggregates? Quantifying Safety Net Work Incentives since 2007
by Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract; PDF

Age-Based Heterogeneity and Pricing Regulation on the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange
by Keith M. Marzilli Ericson, Amanda Starc
Abstract; PDF

Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Inequality in China
by James J. Heckman, Junjian Yi
Abstract; PDF

Bankruptcy as Implicit Health Insurance
by Neale Mahoney
Abstract; PDF

Men, Women, and Machines: How Trade Impacts Gender Inequality
by Chinhui Juhn, Gergely Ujhelyi, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez
Abstract; PDF

When Walmart Comes to Town: Always Low Housing Prices? Always?
by Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope
Abstract; PDF

The Effects of “Girl-Friendly” Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso
by Harounan Kazianga, Dan Levy, Leigh L. Linden, Matt Sloan
Abstract; PDF

Does Decentralization Facilitate Access to Poverty-Related Services? Evidence from Benin
by Emilie Caldeira, Martial Foucault, Gregoire Rota-Graziosi #18118 (PE)
Abstract; PDF

Tall or Taller, Pretty or Prettier: Is Discrimination Absolute or Relative?
by Daniel S. Hamermesh
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective
by Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Marieke Schnabel
Abstract; PDF

Taxation and Redistribution of Residual Income Inequality
by Mikhail Golosov, Pricila Maziero, Guido Menzio
Abstract; PDF

Identification of Potential Games and Demand Models for Bundles
by Jeremy T. Fox, Natalia Lazzati
Abstract; PDF

Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences in the Return to Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980-2000
by Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis
Abstract; PDF

The Aftermath of Accelerating Algebra: Evidence from a District Policy Initiative
by Charles T. Clotfelter, Helen F. Ladd, Jacob L. Vigdor
Abstract; PDF

The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance
by Steven D. Levitt, John A. List, Susanne Neckermann, Sally Sadoff
Abstract; PDF

Unobserved Heterogeneity in Matching Games
by Jeremy T. Fox, Chenyu Yang
Abstract; PDF

Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
by Charles F. Manski
Abstract; PDF

Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health
by Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, David Simon
Abstract; PDF

When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules
by John B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov
Abstract; PDF

New Working Papers from the NBER

The Opt-In Revolution? Contraception and the Gender Gap in Wages
by Martha J. Bailey, Brad Hershbein, Amalia R. Miller
Abstract; PDF

Limited Life Expectancy, Human Capital and Health Investments: Evidence from Huntington Disease
by Emily Oster, Ira Shoulson, E. Ray Dorsey
Abstract; PDF

Education, Health and Mortality: Evidence from a Social Experiment
by Costas Meghir, Marten Palme, Emilia Simeonova
Abstract; PDF

Choice Probability Generating Functions
by Mogens Fosgerau, Daniel L. McFadden, Michel Bierlaire
Abstract; PDF

Measuring Total Household Spending in a Monthly Internet Survey: Evidence from the American Life Panel
by Michael D. Hurd, Susann Rohwedder
Abstract; PDF

Heterogeneity in Human Capital Investments: High School Curriculum, College Major, and Careers
by Joseph G. Altonji, Erica Blom, Costas Meghir
Abstract; PDF

On The Political Economy Of Educational Vouchers
by Dennis N. Epple, Richard Romano
Abstract; PDF

School Turnarounds: Evidence from the 2009 Stimulus
by Thomas Dee
Abstract; PDF

Trends in Occupational Segregation by Gender 1970-2009: Adjusting for the Impact of Changes in the Occupational Coding System
by Francine D. Blau, Peter Brummund, Albert Yung-Hsu Liu
Abstract; PDF

Saving Babies: The Contribution of Sheppard-Towner to the Decline in Infant Mortality in the 1920s
by Carolyn M. Moehling, Melissa A. Thomasson
Abstract; PDF

Demand for Smokeless Tobacco: Role of Magazine Advertising
by Dhaval M. Dave, Henry Saffer
Abstract; PDF

Comparing Real Wages
by Orley C. Ashenfelter
Abstract; PDF

Measuring Test Measurement Error: A General Approach
by Donald Boyd, Hamilton Lankford, Susanna Loeb, James Wyckoff
Abstract; PDF

A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration
by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Katherine Eriksson
Abstract; PDF

The Impact of Patient Cost-Sharing on the Poor: Evidence from Massachusetts
by Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Gruber, Robin McKnight
Abstract; PDF

Testing Motives for Charitable Giving: A Revealed-Preference Methodology with Experimental Evidence
by Rahul Deb, Robert S. Gazzale, Matthew J. Kotchen
Abstract; PDF

The Impact of Immigration on the Educational Attainment of Natives
by Jennifer Hunt
Abstract; PDF

Estimating the Economic Impacts of Living Wage Mandates Using Ex Ante Simulations, Longitudinal Estimates, and New Public and Administrative Data: Evidence for New York City
by David Neumark, Matthew Thompson, Francesco Brindisi, Leslie Koyle, Clayton Reck
Abstract; PDF

Weathering the Storm: Hurricanes and Birth Outcomes
by Janet Currie, Maya Rossin-Slater
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom
by Michael F. Lovenheim, C. Lockwood Reynolds
Abstract; PDF

New Working Papers from the NBER

Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
by Jon Faust, Abhishek Gupta
Abstract; PDF

Housing Booms and City Centers
by Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Kristina Tobio
Abstract; PDF

Estimating the Relationship between Alcohol Policies and Criminal Violence and Victimization
by Sara Markowitz, Erik Nesson, Eileen Poe-Yamagata, Curtis Florence, Partha Deb, Tracy Andrews, Sarah Beth L. Barnett
Abstract; PDF

Do High-Cost Hospitals Deliver Better Care? Evidence from Ambulance Referral Patterns
by Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., John A. Graves, Jonathan Gruber, Samuel Kleiner
Abstract; PDF

Is There “Too Much” Inequality in Health Spending Across Income Groups?
by Laurence Ales, Roozbeh Hosseini, Larry E. Jones
Abstract; PDF

School Governance, Teacher Incentives, and Pupil-Teacher Ratios: Experimental Evidence from Kenyan Primary Schools
by Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, Michael Kremer
Abstract; PDF

Price Subsidies, Diagnostic Tests, and Targeting of Malaria Treatment: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

by Jessica Cohen, Pascaline Dupas, Simone G. Schaner
Abstract; PDF

Costly Labor Adjustment: Effects of China’s Employment Regulations
by Russell Cooper, Guan Gong, Ping Yan
Abstract; PDF

Education, Cognition, Health Knowledge, and Health Behavior
by Naci H. Mocan, Duha Tore Altindag
Abstract; PDF

Who Suffers During Recessions?
by Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, Jessamyn Schaller
Abstract; PDF

On the Generalizability of Experimental Results in Economics
by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John A. List
Abstract; PDF

The Evolution of the Black-White Test Score Gap in Grades K-3: The Fragility of Results
by Timothy N. Bond, Kevin Lang
Abstract; PDF

Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate
by Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
Abstract; PDF

Why is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States so High and Why Does it Matter?
by Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine
Abstract; PDF

New Working Papers from the NBER

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: How Important Is Forward Looking Behavior?
by Aviva Aron-Dine, Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Mark R. Cullen
Abstract; PDF

What Does Human Capital Do? A Review of Goldin and Katz’s The Race between Education and Technology
by Daron Acemoglu, David Autor
Abstract; PDF

Does Federal Student Aid Raise Tuition? New Evidence on For-Profit Colleges
by Stephanie Riegg Cellini, Claudia Goldin
Abstract; PDF

Student Aid Simplification: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

by Susan Dynarski, Mark Wiederspan
Abstract; PDF

Vote Trading With and Without Party Leaders
by Alessandra Casella, Thomas Palfrey, Sebastien Turban
Abstract; PDF

Challenges in Banking the Rural Poor: Evidence from Kenya’s Western Province
by Pascaline Dupas, Sarah Green, Anthony Keats, Jonathan Robinson
Abstract; PDF

Boundedly Rational Dynamic Programming: Some Preliminary Results
by Xavier Gabaix
Abstract; PDF

Toward an Understanding of Why People Discriminate: Evidence from a Series of Natural Field Experiments

by Uri Gneezy, John List, Michael K. Price
Abstract; PDF

Do College-Prep Programs Improve Long-Term Outcomes?
by C. Kirabo Jackson
Abstract; PDF

Stimulating Demand for AIDS Prevention: Lessons from the RESPECT Trial

by Damien de Walque, William H. Dow, Carol Medlin, Rose Nathan
Abstract; PDF

A Fair and Impartial Jury? The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes
by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson
Abstract; PDF

Approximating High-Dimensional Dynamic Models: Sieve Value Function Iteration
by Peter Arcidiacono, Patrick Bayer, Federico A. Bugni, Jonathan James
Abstract; PDF

Should Aid Reward Performance? Evidence from a Field Experiment on Health and Education in Indonesia
by Benjamin A. Olken, Junko Onishi, Susan Wong
Abstract; PDF

Does Universal Coverage Improve Health? The Massachusetts Experience
by Charles J. Courtemanche, Daniela Zapata
Abstract; PDF

New Discussion Papers from the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Positional Concerns through the Life Cycle: Evidence from Subjective Well-Being Data and Survey Experiments
Alpaslan Akay, Peter Martinsson
Abstract; PDF

Fading Hope in the US
Jo Ritzen, Klaus F. Zimmermann
Abstract; PDF

Characterizing the Instrumental Variable Identifying Assumption as Sample Selection Conditions
Christian Belzil, Jörgen Hansen
Abstract; PDF

Gender Gaps in PISA Test Scores: The Impact of Social Norms and the Mother’s Transmission of Role Attitudes
Ainara González de San Román, Sara de la Rica
Abstract; PDF

Misreported Schooling, Multiple Measures and Returns to Educational Qualifications
Erich Battistin, Michele De Nadai, Barbara Sianesi
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from Bowling Green State University

Unmarried Boomers Confront Old Age: A National Portrait
By: I-Fen Lin and Susan L. Brown
PDF

The Party’s Over: The Influence of SES on the Association between Alcohol Use and Young Adult Well-Being
By: Patrick M. Seffrin, Peggy C. Giodano, Wendy D. Manning, and Monica A. Longmore
PDF

Unintended Fertility and the Stability of Coresidential Relationships
Karen Benjamin Guzzo and Sarah R. Hayford
PDF

The Myth of the Middle-Class Single Mother: Decomposing Demographic Change in Nonmarital Fertility, 1988-2008
Karen Benjamin Guzzo and Sarah R. Hayford
PDF

New Discussion Papers from the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences
Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

The “Out of Africa” Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development
Quamrul Ashraf, Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

Inequality, Human Capital Formation and the Process of Development
Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

Cultural Diversity, Geographical Isolation, and the Origin of the Wealth of Nations
Quamrul Ashraf, Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

Long Term Impacts of Compensatory Preschool on Health and Behavior: Evidence from Head Start
Pedro Carneiro, Rita Ginja
Abstract; PDF

The Effect of Ethnic Identity on the Employment of Immigrants
(revised version forthcoming in: Review of Economics of the Household)
Nick Drydakis
Abstract; PDF

Child Care Subsidies, Maternal Well-Being, and Child-Parent Interactions: Evidence from Three Nationally Representative Datasets
Chris M. Herbst, Erdal Tekin
Abstract; PDF

International Comparisons in Health Economics: Evidence from Aging Studies
James Banks, James P. Smith
Abstract; PDF

Is There Such Thing as Middle Class Values? Class Differences, Values and Political Orientations in Latin America
Luis Felipe López-Calva, Jamele Rigolini, Florencia Torche
Abstract; PDF

Does Additional Spending Help Urban Schools? An Evaluation Using Boundary Discontinuities
Steve Gibbons, Sandra McNally, Martina Viarengo
Abstract; PDF

The Complexity of Immigrant Generations: Implications for Assessing the Socioeconomic Integration of Hispanics and Asians
Brian Duncan, Stephen Trejo
Abstract; PDF

Less Myth, More Measurement: Decomposing Excess Returns from the 1989 Minimum Wage Hike
Carl Lin
Abstract; PDF

Working Papers from the California Center for Population Research

Causal Effect Heterogeneity
By: Jennie Brand and Juli Simon Thomas
PDF

Subsidized Housing and the Concentration of Poverty, 1977-2008: A Comparison between Eight US Cities
By: Yana Andreeva Kucheva
PDF

Mexican Migration and Union Formation in Sending Communities: A Research Note
By: Kate Choi
PDF

The “Difference Between Heaven and Earth”: Urban-Rural Disparities in Health and Well-being in China
By: Donald J. Treiman
PDF

Fertility Patterns in the Context of Mexican Migration to the United States: Childbearing Before and After Migration
By: Kate Choi
PDF

Cohort Effects or Period Effects?: Fertility Decline in South Korea in the 20th Century
By: Dongoh Kye
PDF

International Migration and the Distribution of Schooling in the Next Generation
By: Kate Choi and Robert D. Mare
PDF

Pathways to Educational Homogamy in Marital and Cohabiting Union
By: Christine R. Schwartz
PDF
Published As: Demography, Volume 47, Number 3, August 2010, pp. 735-753