Monthly Archive for July, 2009

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Census Bureau Reports World’s Older Population Projected to Triple by 2050

Census Bureau Reports World’s Older Population Projected to Triple by 2050

The world’s 65-and-older population is projected to triple by midcentury, from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In contrast, the population under 15 is expected to increase by only 6 percent during the same period, from 1.83 billion to 1.93 billion.

In the United States, the population 65 and older will more than double by 2050, rising from 39 million today to 89 million. While children are projected to still outnumber the older population worldwide in 2050, the under 15 population in the United States is expected to fall below the older population by that date, increasing from 62 million today to 85 million.

These figures come from the world population estimates and projections released today through the Census Bureau’s International Data Base. This latest update includes projections by age, including people 100 and older, for 227 countries and areas.

Less than 8 percent of the world’s population is 65 and older. By 2030, the world’s population 65 and older is expected to reach 12 percent, and by 2050, that share is expected to grow to 16 percent.

“This shift in the age structure of the world’s population poses challenges to society, families, businesses, health care providers and policymakers to meet the needs of aging individuals,” said Wan He, demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division.

From 2009 to 2050, the world’s 85 and older population is projected to increase more than fivefold, from 40 million to 219 million. Because women generally live longer than men, they account for slightly more than half of the older population and represent nearly two-thirds of the 85 and older population.

Europe likely will continue to be the oldest region in the world: by 2050, 29 percent of its total population is projected to be 65 and older. On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain the youngest region as a result of relatively higher fertility and, in some nations, the impact of HIV/AIDS. Only 5 percent of Africa’s population is projected to be 65 and older in 2050.

Countries experiencing relatively rapid declines in fertility combined with longer life spans will face increasingly older populations. These countries will see the highest growth rates in their older populations over the next 40 years.

There are four countries with 20 percent or more of their population 65 and older: Germany, Italy, Japan and Monaco. By 2030, 55 countries are expected to have at least one-in-five of their total population in this age category; by 2050, the number of countries could rise to more than 100.

Although China and India are the world’s most populous countries, their older populations do not represent large percentages of their total populations today. However, these countries do have the largest number of older people — 109 million and 62 million, respectively. Both countries are projected to undergo more rapid aging, and by 2050, will have about 350 million and 240 million people 65 and older, respectively.

The International Data Base offers a variety of demographic indicators for countries and areas of the world with populations of 5,000 or more. It provides information on population size and growth, age and sex composition, mortality, fertility and net migration.

American Time Use Survey

American Time Use Survey — 2008 Results
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor released 2008 results from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). This annual release of ATUS data focuses on the average amount of time per day in 2008 that individuals worked, did household activities, cared for household children, participated in educational activities, and engaged in leisure and sports activities. It also includes measures of the average time per day spent providing childcare–both as a primary (or main) activity and while doing other things–for the combined years 2004-08. Except for childcare, activities done simultaneously with primary activities were not collected. For a further description of ATUS data and methodology, see the Technical Note.

BLS also released ten 2008 ATUS microdata files for users who wish to do their own tabulations and analyses. In accordance with BLS and Census Bureau policies that protect survey respondents’ privacy, identifying information was removed from the microdata files and some responses have been edited. The 2008 microdata files are available on the BLS Web site at http://www.bls.gov/tus/data.htm.

Full news release
Table of Contents

Who Marries and When? Age at First Marriage in the United States: 2002

Who Marries and When? Age at First Marriage in the United States: 2002
By: Paula Goodwin, Brittany McGill, and Anjani Chandra
Source: NCHS Data Brief
Key findings:
Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth
+ Over 70% of men and women aged 25-44 have ever been married: 71% of men and 79% of women.
+ Non-Hispanic black men and women aged 25-44 have lower percentages who have ever been married than non-Hispanic white and Hispanic persons of the same age.
+ The probability that men will marry by age 40 is 81%; for women, it is 86%.
+A larger percentage of women than men aged 35-44 have married by age 35.
+ Smaller percentages of non-Hispanic black women aged 35-44 have married by age 35 than non-Hispanic white or Hispanic women of the same age range.
+ Smaller percentages of non-Hispanic black men aged 35-44 who are below the poverty line have been married by age 35 than non-Hispanic black men of the same age who are at least 200% above poverty.
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No Crystal Ball Needed: Teens Are Heading in the Wrong Direction

Changing Behavioral Risk for Pregnancy among High School Students in the United States, 1991-2007
By: John S. Santelli, Mark Orr, Laura D. Lindberg, and Daniela C. Diaz
Source: Guttmacher Institute

Between 2003 and 2007, the progress made in the 1990s and early 2000s in improving teen contraceptive use and reducing teen pregnancy and childbearing stalled, and may even have reversed among certain groups of teens, according to “Changing Behavior Risk for Pregnancy Among High School Students in the United States, 1991–2007,” by John S. Santelli et al. Between 1991 and 2003, teens’ condom use increased while their use of no contraceptive method declined, leading to a decreased risk of pregnancy and to declines in teen pregnancy and childbearing. These new findings paint a very different picture since 2003.

Using data from young women in grades 9–12 who participated in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, the authors estimated teens’ risk of becoming pregnant based on their sexual activity, the contraceptive method they used and the effectiveness of that method in preventing pregnancy. The authors found no change in teen sexual activity between 2003 and 2007, but did find a small decline in contraceptive use.

Press Release
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