Baby Boomers, Cohabitation, and Marriage

Jennifer Murff, writing for the Family Studies blog, discusses the trend of the Baby Boom generation choosing cohabitation over marriage.

My mom’s story is not unique—far from it. Baby Boomers are cohabiting at a high and increasing rate. In 2000, when the oldest Baby Boomers were in their early fifties, there were 1.2 million cohabiting Americans over age 50; in 2013, by comparison, there were 3.3 million. For older Americans who are divorced and want to find love for a second (or a third) time—marriage is not in the cards, it seems. Unlike Millennials, many of whom cohabit to test the waters with a partner before making a long-term commitment, Boomers may cohabit rather than marry for more complicated reasons.

2014 Income and Poverty Estimates for School Districts, Counties, and States

The Census Bureau released the 2014 estimates from it Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program last week.

From Data Detectives:

Tables provide statistics on the number of people in poverty, the number of children younger than age 5 in poverty (for states only), the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty, the number younger than age 18 in poverty, and median household income. At the school district level, estimates are available for the total population, the number of children ages 5 to 17 and the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty.

Current reproductive trends via pregnancy rates

The drop in birth rates from 2007 through 2013 has been well documented. However, it is also important to examine total rates of pregnancy and other pregnancy outcomes (abortion and fetal loss) to provide a comprehensive picture of current reproductive trends. This NCHS Health E-Stat uses data from 2010 to update a previous NCHS report on pregnancy rates. Data on pregnancy outcomes by age and race and Hispanic origin are presented.

2010 Pregnancy Rates Among U.S. Women
Sally C. Curtin, Joyce Abma [NCHS] and Kathryn Kost [Guttmacher Institute]
December 2015
html | pdf

Graph of Race x Age specific pregnancy rates over time

Demographer vs Demographer

Monday’s Supreme Court case centered on data. The case, Evenwell v Abbot, argues that representation in Texas legislative districts ought to be based on voters rather than the total population. Currently, most states use total population for re-districting purposes and this comes from the decennial census. The decennial census does not have a citizenship question. But, the replacement for the Census long-form, the American Community Survey (ACS) does.

The former directors of the Census Bureau filed an amicus brief against the idea of using the eligible voter population (e.g., citizens 18+ years of age). A group of applied demographers also filed an amicus brief, noting that this was quite possible using the ACS. Note that Sonia Sotomayor does not think the ACS is adequate, but that is because she misunderstands the data:

tweet

As is typical with cases involving data and social science research, there are lots of supplementary links:

The Washington Post [10 or so opinions from the Opinion | In Theory section]
One Person One Vote’: A Primer
Washington Post | Opinion : In Theory
October 2015
[10 or so opinions and comments]

Argument preview: How to measure “one person, one vote”
Lyle Dunston | ScotusBlog
December 1, 2015

The Threat to Representation for Children and Non-Citizens: An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott on Redistricting
Andrew Beveridge | Social Explorer
December 2, 2015

Supreme Court is skeptical of challenge to Texas district lines
Maria Recio | Sacramento Bee
December 8, 2015
This is the source of the Sotomayor quote

. . . Dueling Affirmative Action Empiricism” [this is actually from Fisher vs Texas, but is included here as evidence of the Supreme Court using social science research.

Urban and Suburban Charter Schools

Susan Dynarski examines the research on charter schools for The Upshot:

Social scientists, like medical researchers, can confirm only whether, on average, a given treatment is beneficial for a given population. Not all charter schools are outstanding: In the suburbs, for example, the evidence is that they do no better than traditional public schools. But they have been shown to improve the education of disadvantaged children at scale, in multiple cities, over many years.

Podcast by FiveThirtyEight

The FiveThirtyEight blog has a podcast called What’s the Point: “A show about our data age. Each week, Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews on how data is changing our lives.”

The most recent episode is about polling and religion in America.

Drop in Divorce Rate Continues

Philip Cohen updates his paper, Recession and Divorce, in the Family Inequality blog:

When I analyzed divorce and the recession in this paper, I only had data from 2008 to 2011. Using a model based on the predictors of marriage in 2008, I thought there had been a drop in divorces associated with the recession in 2009, followed by a rebound back to the “expected level” by 2011. So, the recession reduced divorces, perhaps temporarily.

That was looking iffy when the 2013 data showed a big drop in the divorce rate, as I reported last year. With new data now out from the 2014 American Community Survey, that story is seeming less and less adequate.

See also: Update: Adjusted divorce risk, 2008-2014.

Mortality of Middle Aged White Men

Philip Cohen, writing for the Family Inequality blog, has some concerns about the Case and Deaton paper showing that the mortality rate for middle-aged white men is rising: “My concern is that changes in the age and sex composition of the population studied could account for a non-trivial amount of the trends they report.”

Surveying U.S. Latinos

The Pew Research Center released a report detailing the unique challenges of surveying Latinos in the United States.

As the U.S. Hispanic population grows, reaching nearly 57 million in 2015 and making up 18% of the nation’s population, it is becoming increasingly important to represent Hispanics in surveys of the U.S. population and to understand their opinions and behavior. But surveying Hispanics is complicated for many reasons – language barriers, sampling issues and cultural differences – that are the subject of a growing field of inquiry. This report explores some the unique challenges currently facing survey researchers in reaching Hispanics and offers considerations on how to meet those challenges based on the research literature and our experiences in fielding the Pew Research Center’s National Survey of Latinos.

Download the full report (PDF)

Life Expectancy of U.S. Children

Josh Barro of The Upshot examines the rising life expectancy in the United States:

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, life expectancy at birth in the United States was 78.8 years in 2013 — 76.4 years for men, 81.2 years for women. But I have good news. Those statistics don’t mean what you probably think they mean.

In fact, an American child born in 2013 will most likely live six or more years longer than those averages: boys into their early 80s, girls into their late 80s.