Decomposition of Future Population Growth

From the UNFPA website:

The main objective of the decomposition tool is to provide evidence and analysis that countries can use to develop policies and programmes aimed to find a balance between demographic change and social, economic and environmental goals.

This program calculates the contributions of different demographic factors (wanted and un-wanted fertility, mortality, migration, and age structure) to population growth. It is based on the medium variant population projection of the United Nations from 2010 to 2050 for all countries and main regions.

Select a country or region from the window below to view the results of the decomposition tool. Move mouse over the figures to explore the interactive data content. Then read and download a report summarizing the results, methods, and policy implications.

Learn more and use the tool on the website.

Working Papers from the NBER

Could a Website Really Have Doomed the Health Exchanges? Multiple Equilibria, Initial Conditions and the Construction of the Fine
by Florian Scheuer, Kent Smetters #19835
Abstract; PDF

Short-run Effects of Job Loss on Health Conditions, Health Insurance, and Health Care Utilization
by Jessamyn Schaller, Ann Huff Stevens #19884
Abstract; PDF

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
by Zhiguo He, Arvind Krishnamurthy #19885
Abstract; PDF

Does Female Empowerment Promote Economic Development?
by Matthias Doepke, Michele Tertilt #19888
Abstract; PDF

Health, Financial Incentives, and Early Retirement: Micro-Simulation Evidence for Germany
by Hendrik Juerges, Lars Thiel, Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Johannes Rausch, Morten Schuth, Axel Boersch-Supan #19889
Abstract; PDF

Scale and Skill in Active Management
by Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, Lucian A. Taylor #19891
Abstract; PDF

Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation
by Raquel Fernandez, Joyce C. Wong #19869
Abstract; PDF

Tobacco Control Campaign in Uruguay: Impact on Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy
by Jeffrey E. Harris, Ana Ines Balsa, Patricia Triunfo #19878
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Online Postsecondary Education: MOOCs, Nonselective Education, and Highly Selective Education
by Caroline M. Hoxby #19816
Abstract; PDF

Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality
by Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov, Cezar Santos #19829
Abstract; PDF

NIH adds substantial set of genetic, health information to online database

Researchers will now have access to genetic data linked to medical information on a diverse group of more than 78,000 people, enabling investigations into many diseases and conditions. The data, from one of the nation’s largest and most diverse genomics projects — Genetic Epidemiology Research on Aging (GERA) — have just been made available to qualified researchers through the database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP), an online genetics database of the National Institutes of Health.

Details can found here.

Working Papers from the NBER

Urban Population and Amenities
by David Albouy, Bryan Stuart #19919
Abstract; PDF

Driving to Opportunity: Local Rents, Wages, Commuting Costs and Sub-Metropolitan Quality of Life
by David Albouy, Bert Lue #19922
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility
by James J. Heckman, Stefano Mosso #19925
Abstract; PDF

Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data
by Charles Courtemanche, Joshua C. Pinkston, Jay Stewart #19928
Abstract; PDF

Retirement Security in an Aging Society
by James M. Poterba #19930
Abstract; PDF

The Labor Market Effects of Reducing Undocumented Immigrants
by Andri Chassamboulli, Giovanni Peri #19932
Abstract; PDF

The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
by Robert J. Gordon #19895
Abstract; PDF

The Role of Health in Retirement
by Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier #19902
Abstract; PDF

Regulatory Redistribution in the Market for Health Insurance
by Jeffrey Clemens #19904
Abstract; PDF

Collaborating With People Like Me: Ethnic co-authorship within the US
by Richard B. Freeman, Wei Huang #19905
Abstract; PDF

Men of Color and Community Colleges

By: Katherine Mangan
Source: Chronicle of Higher Education

Minority Male Students Face Challenge to Achieve at Community Colleges

Although black and Latino male students enter community colleges with higher aspirations than those of their white peers, white men are six times as likely to graduate in three years with a certificate or degree, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Center for Community College Student Engagement at the University of Texas here.

Full text of the article

Aspirations to Achievement: Report from the Center for Community College Student Engagement (PDF)

Treasure Trove: US Congressional District Shapefiles, 1789-2012

Why should NSF fund political science? Here’s a great reason:

United States Congressional District Shapefiles
Jeffrey B. Lewis, Brandon DeVine, and Lincoln Pritcher with Kenneth C. Martis

This site provides digital boundary definitions for every U.S. Congressional District in use between 1789 and 2012. These were produced as part of NSF grant SBE-SES-0241647 between 2009 and 2013.

The current release of these data is experimental. We have had done a good deal of work to validate all of the shapes. However, it is quite likely that some irregularities remain. Please email jblewis@ucla.edu with questions or suggestions for improvement. We hope to have a ticketing system for bugs and a versioning system up soon. The district definitions currently available should be considered an initial-release version.

BLS: Budget cut casualties

The FY2014 budget for BLS has cut two important data programs: The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the International Price Program. The latter is a principal economic indicator.

2014 Budget Enacted for Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS Information Press Release | Bureau of Labor Statistics
February 25, 2014

The following document describes the U.S. Import and Export Price indexes, which clarifies what other government agencies and the business community are losing.

Get to Know a Principal Economic Indicator: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics | www.copafs.org

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
This is the data/information link for the February 14, 2014 release
Data tables for the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
Downloadable tables | html version | Archival releases

Blexting: it’s not what you think

Blexting is short for “blight texting.” It is an app that a Detroit-based start-up (Loveland Technologies) created, which is being used to map all Detroit structures to fight blight. Here’s a bit of the coverage of the software and the amazing progress the blexters have made in mapping Detroit blight:

map

Watch: Battling Blight with “Blexting”
Hell Yeah Detroit | Your Online Guide to Being a Better Detroiter
January 26, 2014

Loveland’s passion: Battle blight
Amy Haimerl | Crain’s Detroit
February 19, 2014
Map tech – aka ‘blexting’ – charts growth

Battling Blight: Detroit Maps Entire City To Find Bad Buildings
Quinn Klinefelter | National Public Radio
February 18, 2014

A Picture of Detroit Ruin, Street by Forlorn Street
Monica Davey | New York Times
February 17, 2014

Nerd alert: administrative data, paradata, and BYOD

Bob Groves is no longer the Census Bureau director, but the Census Bureau’s plans for the 2020 Census have many of the elements that he wrote about in the Census Bureau’s Director’s blog and presented at professional meetings. He has had a lasting impact at the Census Bureau.

In an historic move, Census Bureau tries electronic outreach
D’Vera Cohn | Pew Research Center
February 18, 2014
Read the post to find out what BYOD means.

A recent memorandum from the White House, encourages the use of administrative data by federal agencies for statistical purposes. This may prove useful to some of the 2020 efforts.

Guidance for Providing and Using Administrative Data for Statistical Purposes
White House | Office of Management and Budget
February 14, 2014

Finally, the reference to “updated guidance” in the Pew piece sounds quite a bit like paradata used in responsive survey design of the NSFG. The Census enumerates all households so it isn’t a survey, but paradata can guide the data collection process – when to enumerate (weekend or not, evening or not) and when to get data from other sources.

Use of Paradata in a Responsive Design Framework to Manage a Field Data Collection
J. Wagner, et.al. | Journal of Official Statistics

Responsive Survey Design, Demographic Data Collection, and Models of Demographic Behavior
W. Axinn, C. Link, and R. Groves | Demography

Inequality: States & Cities

Here are two reports on inequality – one for states, including historical data and one for the 50 largest cities. The state-based analysis uses state-level tax data whereas the city-based analysis uses the American Community Survey. The city-based study is referenced in a story in the New York Times.

The Increasingly Unequal States of America: Income Inequality by state, 1917 to 2011
Estelle Sommeiller and Mark Price | Economic Analysis and Research Network
February 19, 2013

All Cities Are Not Created Unequal
Alan Berube | Brookings
February 20, 2014
Appendix: Income Inequality in America’s 50 Largest Cities, 2007-2012

Study Finds Greater Income Inequality in Nation’s Thriving Cities
Annie Lowrey | New York Times
February 20, 2014