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COSSA makes 10 suggestions to next Administration for supporting and using social science research

Thompson says US prison population is 'staggeringly high' at about 1.5 million, despite 2% drop for 2015

Levy et al. find Michigan's Medicaid expansion boosted state's economy while increasing number of insured

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2017 PAA Annual Meeting, April 27-29, Chicago

NIH funding opportunity: Etiology of Health Disparities and Health Advantages among Immigrant Populations (R01 and R21), open Jan 2017

Russell Sage 2017 Summer Institute in Computational Social Science, June 18-July 1. Application deadline Feb 17.

Russell Sage 2-week workshop on social science genomics, June 11-23, 2017, Santa Barbara

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Mon, Jan 23, 2017 at noon:
Decline of cash assistance and child well-being, Luke Shaefer

Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Hurd, Michael, and Kathleen McGarry. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 94-004. 12 1993.

In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and they do aggregate. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, smokers give lower probabilities of living to 75 than nonsmokers. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision making under uncertainty.

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