Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Bailey and Danziger's War on Poverty book reviewed in NYT

Bloomberg cites MTF data in story on CDC's anti-smoking ads for e-cigarettes

Bound says notion that foreign college students are displacing U.S. students "isn't right"

Highlights

U-M ranked #1 in Sociology of Population by USN&WR's "Best Graduate Schools"

PAA 2015 Annual Meeting: Preliminary program and list of UM participants

ISR addition wins LEED Gold Certification

PSC Fall 2014 Newsletter now available

Next Brown Bag

Mon, April 6
Jinkook Lee, Wellbeing of the Elderly in East Asia

A Comparison of Subjective Expectations Elicitation Methods in the Health and Retirement Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the Survey of Economic Expectations

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Download PDF versionDominitz, Jeff. "A Comparison of Subjective Expectations Elicitation Methods in the Health and Retirement Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the Survey of Economic Expectations." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 96-043. July 1996.

This paper examines subjective expectations data collected by three different (United States) national surveys which utilize varying methods of subjective probability elicitation. The results of the analysis contribute to the accumulating body of evidence that researchers who wish to obtain direct reports of an individual's expectations can and should elicit subjective probabilities rather than adopt more traditional survey methods for eliciting expectations. Using the Health and Retirement Study wave 2 survey data to build on previous findings validating the wave 1 expectations data, I find that reported expectations are stable over time, despite what appears to be a substantial change in the question format. Analysis of subjective probability data collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Economic Expectations reveals that data quality may be further enhanced by revising the questions asked of survey respondents.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study: U.S., 1992 (first wave) and 1994 (second wave). Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID): U.S., 1994. Survey of Economic Expectations: U.S., 1994.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next