A Comparison of Subjective Expectations Elicitation Methods in the Health and Retirement Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the Survey of Economic Expectations

This paper examines subjective expectations data collected by three different (United States) national surveys which utilize varying methods of subjective probability elicitation. The results of the analysis contribute to the accumulating body of evidence that researchers who wish to obtain direct reports of an individual's expectations can and should elicit subjective probabilities rather than adopt more traditional survey methods for eliciting expectations. Using the Health and Retirement Study wave 2 survey data to build on previous findings validating the wave 1 expectations data, I find that reported expectations are stable over time, despite what appears to be a substantial change in the question format. Analysis of subjective probability data collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Economic Expectations reveals that data quality may be further enhanced by revising the questions asked of survey respondents.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study: U.S., 1992 (first wave) and 1994 (second wave). Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID): U.S., 1994. Survey of Economic Expectations: U.S., 1994.