Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Frey's Scenario F simulation mentioned in account of the Democratic Party's tribulations

U-M Poverty Solutions funds nine projects

Dynarski says NY's Excelsior Scholarship Program could crowd out low-income and minority students

More News

Highlights

Workshops on EndNote, NIH reporting, and publication altmetrics, Jan 26 through Feb 7, ISR

2017 PAA Annual Meeting, April 27-29, Chicago

NIH funding opportunity: Etiology of Health Disparities and Health Advantages among Immigrant Populations (R01 and R21), open Jan 2017

Russell Sage 2017 Summer Institute in Computational Social Science, June 18-July 1. Application deadline Feb 17.

More Highlights

Next Brown Bag

Mon, Jan 23, 2017 at noon:
Decline of cash assistance and child well-being, Luke Shaefer

Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Download PDF versionHonig, Marjorie. "Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 96-036. 7 1996.

Reliable forecasts of future retirement patterns are of obvious importance in formulating public policy. The predictive value of workers' expectations regarding retirement depends, however, on whether expectations are reliable indicators of future retirement, conditional on the information available at the time that expectations are formed. Using workers' responses in the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey about the chances of working after age 62, this paper provides some tentative answers to two important questions regarding retirement expectations: Does there appear to be a high random component to expectations regarding future retirement and, if not, does the same behavioral model that generates retirement realizations seem to generate retirement expectations as well? Findings on changes in reported expectations between Waves 1 and 2 of the HRS suggest that expectations may well provide useful information about future retirement.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study: U.S., 1992 (first wave) and 1994 (second wave).

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next