Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Inglehart says shaky job market for millennials has contributed to their disaffection

Stephenson says homophobia among gay men raises risk of intimate partner violence

Frey says having more immigrants with higher birth rates fills need in the US

More News

Highlights

Savolainen wins Outstanding Contribution Award for study of how employment affects recidivism among past criminal offenders

Giving Blueday at ISR focuses on investing in the next generation of social scientists

Pfeffer and Schoeni cover the economic and social dimensions of wealth inequality in this special issue

PRB Policy Communication Training Program for PhD students in demography, reproductive health, population health

More Highlights

Next Brown Bag

Mon, Jan 23, 2017 at noon:
H. Luke Shaefer

Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Download PDF versionHonig, Marjorie. "Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 96-036. July 1996.

Reliable forecasts of future retirement patterns are of obvious importance in formulating public policy. The predictive value of workers' expectations regarding retirement depends, however, on whether expectations are reliable indicators of future retirement, conditional on the information available at the time that expectations are formed. Using workers' responses in the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey about the chances of working after age 62, this paper provides some tentative answers to two important questions regarding retirement expectations: Does there appear to be a high random component to expectations regarding future retirement and, if not, does the same behavioral model that generates retirement realizations seem to generate retirement expectations as well? Findings on changes in reported expectations between Waves 1 and 2 of the HRS suggest that expectations may well provide useful information about future retirement.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study: U.S., 1992 (first wave) and 1994 (second wave).

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next