Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Bloomberg cites MTF data in story on CDC's anti-smoking ads for e-cigarettes

Bound says notion that foreign students are displacing U.S. students "isn't right"

Prescott says online option for access to court system can help equalize justice

Highlights

U-M ranked #1 in Sociology of Population by USN&WR's "Best Graduate Schools"

PAA 2015 Annual Meeting: Preliminary program and list of UM participants

ISR addition wins LEED Gold Certification

PSC Fall 2014 Newsletter now available

Next Brown Bag

Mon, March 23
Lundberg, State Care of the Elderly & Labor Supply of Adult Children

Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking

Publication Abstract

Download PDF versionLillard, Lee A., and Robert Willis. 2000. "Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking." PSC Research Report No. 00-455. October 2000.

Proposed reforms of Social Security that expand household choice and private sector trends away from defined benefit pension plans toward defined contribution plans offer new financial planning options. Although these options have many potential benefits for households, critics argue that many people will fail to make choices that exploit them, and, consequently, that expanded choice will increase the risks of poverty for some populations. Subjective probabilities are key in models of optimal financial planning, yet little is known about the capacity of individuals to use probabalistic thinking in this area. In the research reported here, we used a battery of subjective probability questions administered to more than 20,000 people in the Health and Retirement Study to investigate how probabalistic thinking affects portfolio choices and net worth. Our objectives are to develop a measure of competence in probabilistic thinking and to link this measure to risk aversion and financial outcomes.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next