Monday, Nov 3
Melvin Stephens, Estimating Program Benefits
Anderson, Barbara A., and Johan A. van Zyl. 2004. "Considerations and Recommendations in Undertaking Population Projections for South Africa Intended to Assess the Impact and Consequences of HIV/AIDS." PSC Research Report No. 04-561. August 2004.
This paper discusses the use of population projections for South Africa in estimating the future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. The issues raised here apply to projections generally and to projections of the impact of HIV/AIDS in other countries. This paper focuses on preliminary analysis of assumptions underlying factors that influence the results of a population projection -- especially assessment of the robustness of the projections to violations of these assumptions. This preliminary sensitivity analysis should allow final projections to be carried out under a manageable number of combinations of assumptions. The authors make 11 specific recommendations for future projections intended to assess the impact of HIV / AIDS.