Mon, Oct 3 at noon:
Longevity, Education, & Income, Hoyt Bleakley
Anderson, Barbara A., and Johan A. van Zyl. 2004. "Considerations and Recommendations in Undertaking Population Projections for South Africa Intended to Assess the Impact and Consequences of HIV/AIDS." PSC Research Report No. 04-561. August 2004.
This paper discusses the use of population projections for South Africa in estimating the future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. The issues raised here apply to projections generally and to projections of the impact of HIV/AIDS in other countries. This paper focuses on preliminary analysis of assumptions underlying factors that influence the results of a population projection -- especially assessment of the robustness of the projections to violations of these assumptions. This preliminary sensitivity analysis should allow final projections to be carried out under a manageable number of combinations of assumptions. The authors make 11 specific recommendations for future projections intended to assess the impact of HIV / AIDS.