Mon, Sept 19 at noon:
Paradox of Unintended Pregnancy, Jennifer Barber
Murphy, Susan A. 2003. "Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 65(2): 331-366.
A dynamic treatment regime is a list of decision rules, one per time interval, for how the level of treatment will be tailored through time to an individual's changing status. The goal of this paper is to use experimental or observational data to estimate decision regimes that result in a maximal mean response. To explicate our objective and to state the assumptions, we use the potential outcomes model. The method proposed makes smooth parametric assumptions only on quantities that are directly relevant to the goal of estimating the optimal rules. We illustrate the methodology proposed via a small simulation.