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Workshops on EndNote, NIH reporting, and publication altmetrics, Jan 26 through Feb 7, ISR

2017 PAA Annual Meeting, April 27-29, Chicago

NIH funding opportunity: Etiology of Health Disparities and Health Advantages among Immigrant Populations (R01 and R21), open Jan 2017

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Mon, Jan 23, 2017 at noon:
Decline of cash assistance and child well-being, Luke Shaefer

Target Fertility, Contraception, and Aggregate Rates: Toward a Formal Synthesis

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Lee, R.D. "Target Fertility, Contraception, and Aggregate Rates: Toward a Formal Synthesis." Demography, 14, no. 4 (November 1977): 455-79.

This paper develops a stock adjustment model relating total expected births to conventional aggregate fertility rates for married women over 25. Each year, cohorts bear about 20 percent of their additional expected births. Aggregate U.S. rates have been consistent with expectations as expressed in surveys between 1955 and 1975; indeed, total expected births may be inferred from aggregate fertility behavior. A peculiar empirical finding is that the additional expected fertility of nonterminators has not changed since 1955, despite the dramatic decline in total expected and actual fertility. The model leads to a dynamic expression for the duration pattern of current and cumulative fertility and for the proportion of couples who have terminated childbearing. The model is also used to analyze the effects of changing contraceptive failure rates on fertility patterns. For example, a decline in "timing" failure rates increases duration-specific fertility five years later.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/2060590

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