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Axinn says data show incidents of sexual assault start at 'very young age'

Miech on 'generational forgetting' about drug-use dangers

Impacts of H-1B visas: Lower prices and higher production - or lower wages and higher profits?

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Call for papers: Conference on computational social science, April 2017, U-M

Sioban Harlow honored with 2017 Sarah Goddard Power Award for commitment to women's health

Post-doc fellowship in computational social science for summer or fall 2017, U-Penn

ICPSR Summer Program scholarships to support training in statistics, quantitative methods, research design, and data analysis

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Next Brown Bag

Mon, Feb 13, 2017, noon:
Daniel Almirall, "Getting SMART about adaptive interventions"

Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time

Publication Abstract

Elliott, M.R., P.F. Waller, Trivellore Raghunathan, J.T. Shope, and R. J A. Little. 2000. "Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time." Journal of Safety Research, 31:229-242.

This analysis examines the ability of previous offenses to predict future high-risk offenses, and similarly the ability of crashes to predict future highrisk crashes, using the complete driver history data (up to 9 years) for a set of young Michigan subjects. As expected, those with previous ticketed offenses or reported crashes are at greater risk for future offenses or crashes; with a previous-year serious offense doubling the odds of serious offenses during the subsequent year, and a previous-year at-fault crash increasing the odds of subsequent-year at-fault crashes by nearly 50%. There is modest evidence that serious offenses and at-fault crashes may better predict subsequent behavior in females and in more experienced drivers. This latter finding is also evidenced by the fact that records of these young drivers are less predictive of subsequent driving history than is true for records of all drivers in general found in other studies. This suggests that, in the early stages of driving, offenses and crashes are, at least in part, attributable to inexperience, and hence, characteristic of all beginning drivers. (C) 2000 National Safety Council and Elsevier Science Ltd.

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