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Kimball's failed replication of Reinhart-Rogoff finding cited in argument for tempered public response to social science research results

Edin and Shaefer's book on destitute families in America reviewed in NYT

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Deirdre Bloome wins ASA award for work on racial inequality and intergenerational transmission

Bob Willis awarded 2015 Jacob Mincer Award for Lifetime Contributions to the Field of Labor Economics

David Lam is new director of Institute for Social Research

Elizabeth Bruch wins Robert Merton Prize for paper in analytic sociology

Next Brown Bag

Monday, Oct 12
Joe Grengs, Policy & Planning for Social Equity in Transportation

Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time

Publication Abstract

Elliott, M.R., P.F. Waller, Trivellore Raghunathan, J.T. Shope, and R. J A. Little. 2000. "Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time." Journal of Safety Research, 31:229-242.

This analysis examines the ability of previous offenses to predict future high-risk offenses, and similarly the ability of crashes to predict future highrisk crashes, using the complete driver history data (up to 9 years) for a set of young Michigan subjects. As expected, those with previous ticketed offenses or reported crashes are at greater risk for future offenses or crashes; with a previous-year serious offense doubling the odds of serious offenses during the subsequent year, and a previous-year at-fault crash increasing the odds of subsequent-year at-fault crashes by nearly 50%. There is modest evidence that serious offenses and at-fault crashes may better predict subsequent behavior in females and in more experienced drivers. This latter finding is also evidenced by the fact that records of these young drivers are less predictive of subsequent driving history than is true for records of all drivers in general found in other studies. This suggests that, in the early stages of driving, offenses and crashes are, at least in part, attributable to inexperience, and hence, characteristic of all beginning drivers. (C) 2000 National Safety Council and Elsevier Science Ltd.

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