Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Prescott says sex offender registries may increase recidivism by making offender re-assimilation impossible

Frey says rising numbers of younger minority voters mean Republicans must focus on fiscal not social issues

Work by Garces and Mickey-Pabello cited in NYT piece on lack of black physicians

Highlights

Elizabeth Bruch wins Robert Merton Prize for paper in analytic sociology

Elizabeth Bruch wins ASA award for paper in mathematical sociology

Spring 2015 PSC newletter available now

Formal demography workshop and conference at UC Berkeley, August 17-21

Next Brown Bag

PSC Brown Bags will be back fall 2015


Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time

Publication Abstract

Elliott, M.R., P.F. Waller, Trivellore Raghunathan, J.T. Shope, and R. J A. Little. 2000. "Persistence of Violation and Crash Behavior Over Time." Journal of Safety Research, 31:229-242.

This analysis examines the ability of previous offenses to predict future high-risk offenses, and similarly the ability of crashes to predict future highrisk crashes, using the complete driver history data (up to 9 years) for a set of young Michigan subjects. As expected, those with previous ticketed offenses or reported crashes are at greater risk for future offenses or crashes; with a previous-year serious offense doubling the odds of serious offenses during the subsequent year, and a previous-year at-fault crash increasing the odds of subsequent-year at-fault crashes by nearly 50%. There is modest evidence that serious offenses and at-fault crashes may better predict subsequent behavior in females and in more experienced drivers. This latter finding is also evidenced by the fact that records of these young drivers are less predictive of subsequent driving history than is true for records of all drivers in general found in other studies. This suggests that, in the early stages of driving, offenses and crashes are, at least in part, attributable to inexperience, and hence, characteristic of all beginning drivers. (C) 2000 National Safety Council and Elsevier Science Ltd.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next