The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958-1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence

After a hiatus of more than ten years, the government of the Soviet Union has released data on mortality for the 1980s. Most significant is the new life table for 1984-85, which shows that mortality of Soviet females improved below age 45 and deteriorated above age 45 since the last age-specific mortality data were published in the early 1970s, while mortality of males improved below age 25 and deteriorated above age 25. At the same time, the official mortality rates for persons above age 60 in 1958-59, 1968-71, and 1984-85 are implausibly low, as shown by comparisons with rates at younger ages in the Soviet Union and with the rates over the life span for Sweden and Hungary. As a result, even though the reported increases in mortality for both sexes above age 60 may be mostly due to improving data quality, the official mortality rates above age 60 in 1984-85 probably understate the actual rates. Adjustment of the official data for error shows that whereas the reported e0 for males fell 1.5 years between 1958-59 and 1984-85, the actual value probably fell only one-half a year; and whereas the reported e0 for females rose by one year, the actual value probably increased about two years. For both sexes, the change in the shape of the life table -- improvement at younger ages and deterioration at older ages -- is more striking than changes in e0. But perhaps more important is the lack of substantial improvement in mortality conditions for either sex over a period of almost thirty years.