Trajectories of alcohol consumption among older Japanese followed from 1987-1999

This study examined the longitudinal changes in alcohol consumption among elderly Japanese, characterized the subtrajectories within the aggregate trend, and examined potential predictors of these trajectories. Data come from a nationally representative survey of 2,566 persons in Japan, ages 60 to 96, followed over five waves between 1987-1999. Hierarchical linear modeling and cluster analysis were used to uncover trajectories of alcohol use. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to examine the predictors of trajectory association at baseline. Alcohol use appears relatively stable between ages 60 and 70, but declines thereafter. Further, there are three subtrajectories: stable, declining, and curvilinear (in addition to abstainers). Predictors of these trajectories varied by trajectory. Alcohol use may continue to be an important part of life at older ages. However, older drinkers appear to follow four drinking trajectories. Demographic characteristics and stressors may be associated with these trajectories. Knowledge of these trajectories may aid in targeting of interventions.