Monday, Nov 3
Melvin Stephens, Estimating Program Benefits
Sanna, L.J., and Norbert Schwarz. 2007. "Metacognitive experiences and hindsight bias: It's not just the thought (content) that counts!" Social Cognition, 25(1): 185-202.
Theories of hindsight bias have emphasized the role of declarative information. However, accumulating evidence suggests that the production and reduction of hindsight bias involves an intricate interplay of declarative information and metacognitive experiences. These experiences are informative in their own right and may qualify or even reverse the implications of thought content. We summarize and integrate the available findings in terms of a new model of hindsight bias that includes the interplay between: (a) declarative information, (b) metacognitive experiences, (c) their informational value, and (d) the naive theories used to interpret experiences.