Land-cover change and vulnerability to flooding near Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province, China

Inhabitants near Poyang Lake, in the Central Yangtze River Basin, China, are vulnerable to loss of life and livelihood because of the interactions of flooding and land-use policies and decisions. We analyzed implications of land-cover patterns for vulnerability to flooding in the Poyang Lake Region. Land-cover and change were mapped using multi-temporal Landsot TM/ETM+ images at high and low water levels from 1987, 1993, 1999, and 2004. Vulnerability to flooding was analyzed based on the distribution of land covers relative to elevation and the levee quality. Results showed that patterns of Farmland, Urban, and Wetland covers varied by elevation, by the relative likelihood of flooding within polders, and over time; the general trend, with some notable exceptions, was toward less vulnerability of farmland and urban areas to flooding. Factors of markets, laws and regulations have likely influenced changes in land-cover patterns and, therefore, in vulnerability.