Fertility Transition: An Update

Fertility in the developing world declined by almost one-third between the period 1965-1970 and the period 1980-1985. This decline represents close to one-half the difference between the fertility rate in 1965-1970 and replacement-level fertility, accord ing to calculations based on United Nations data. In the 14 developing countries with the largest populations in 1985, fertility declined by 62% of the difference between the starting and replacement levels. There are large disparities in fertility leve ls between regions; the only region approaching replacement level is East Asia, with a total fertility rate of about 2.3. In 22 of 26 countries, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data show that average total fertility rates up to four years prior to the survey are significantly lower than those for the period 4-7 years prior to the survey. The DHS data provide the first evidence of significant fertility declines in Sub-Saharan Africa -- particularly in Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe -- and evidence of continuing declines in most of Latin America, North Africa, and Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand. As fertility has decreased, declines have also occurred in the number of years between a woman's first birth and her last birth and in the number of years the average woman spends caring for small children.