Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Edin and Shaefer's book a call to action for Americans to deal with poverty

Weir says pain may underlie rise in suicide and substance-related deaths among white middle-aged Americans

Weitzman says China's one-child policy has had devastating effects on first-born daughters


MCubed opens for new round of seed funding, November 4-18

PSC News, fall 2015 now available

Barbara Anderson appointed chair of Census Scientific Advisory Committee

John Knodel honored by Thailand's Chulalongkorn University

Next Brown Bag

Monday, Dec 7 at noon, 6050 ISR-Thompson
Daniel Eisenberg, "Healthy Minds Network: Mental Health among College-Age Populations"

David Lam photo

Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births

Publication Abstract

Lam, David, Jeffrey A. Miron, and Ann Riley. 1994. "Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births." Demography, 31(2): 321-46.

This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequen cy, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptibl e population. We illustrate the use of the model by analyzing proposed explanations of birth seasonality that rely on extreme summer heat.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next