Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Lam looks at population and development in next 15 years in UN commission keynote address

Mitchell et al. find harsh family environments may magnify disadvantage via impact on 'genetic architecture'

Frey says Arizona's political paradoxes explained in part by demography

Highlights

NIH announces new policy for resubmissions (4/17/14)

2014 PAA Annual Meeting, May 1-3, Boston

PSC newsletter spring 2014 issue now available

Raghunathan appointed director of Survey Research Center

Next Brown Bag


PSC Brown Bags will return in the fall

The dynamics of criminal behavior - Evidence from weather shocks

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Jacob, Brian, Lars Lefgren, and Enrico Moretti. 2007. "The dynamics of criminal behavior - Evidence from weather shocks." Journal of Human Resources, 42(3): 489-527.

While the persistence of criminal activity is well documented, this may be due to persistence in the unobserved determinants of crime. There are good reasons to believe, however, that there may actually be a negative relationship between crime rates in a particular area due to temporal displacement. We exploit the correlation between weather and crime to examine the short-run dynamics of crime. Using variation in lagged crime rates due to weather shocks, we find that the positive serial correlation is reversed. These findings suggest that the long-run impact of temporary crime-prevention efforts may be smaller than the short-run effects.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next