Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Axinn says data show incidents of sexual assault start at 'very young age'

Miech on 'generational forgetting' about drug-use dangers

Impacts of H-1B visas: Lower prices and higher production - or lower wages and higher profits?

More News

Highlights

Call for papers: Conference on computational social science, April 2017, U-M

Sioban Harlow honored with 2017 Sarah Goddard Power Award for commitment to women's health

Post-doc fellowship in computational social science for summer or fall 2017, U-Penn

ICPSR Summer Program scholarships to support training in statistics, quantitative methods, research design, and data analysis

More Highlights

Next Brown Bag

Mon, Feb 13, 2017, noon:
Daniel Almirall, "Getting SMART about adaptive interventions"

The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Elsby, Michael, Ryan Michaels, and Gary Solon. 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1(1): 84-110.

A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in each postwar recession. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates, especially for job losers (layoffs), as well as procyclical outflow rates. (JEL E24, E32)

DOI:10.1257/mac.1.1.84 (Full Text)

Country of focus: United States of America.

Also Issued As:
Elsby, Michael, Ryan Michaels, and Gary Solon. 2007. "The ins and outs of cyclical unemployment." NBER Working Paper No. 12853Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Abstract.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next