Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Murphy says mobile sensor data will allow adaptive interventions for maximizing healthy outcomes

Frey comments on why sunbelt metro area economies are still struggling

Krause says having religious friends leads to gratitude, which is associated with better health

Highlights

PSC Fall 2014 Newsletter now available

Martha Bailey and Nicolas Duquette win Cole Prize for article on War on Poverty

Michigan's graduate sociology program tied for 4th with Stanford in USN&WR rankings

Jeff Morenoff makes Reuters' Highly Cited Researchers list for 2014

Next Brown Bag

Monday, Oct 20
No brown bag this week

Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839-2009

Publication Abstract

Olmstead, Alan L., and Paul W. Rhode. 2011. "Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839-2009." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(2): 480-485.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that temperatures in the major grain-growing areas of North America will rise by 3-4 degrees C by 2100. Such abrupt changes will create major challenges, significantly altering the area suitable for wheat. The historical record offers insight into the capability of agriculture to adapt to climatic challenges. Using a new county-level dataset on wheat production and climate norms, we show that during the 19th and 20th centuries North American grain farmers pushed wheat production into environments once considered too arid, too variable, and too harsh to cultivate. As summary measures, the median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 degrees C lower. This shift, which occurred mostly before 1929, required new biological technologies. The Green Revolution associated with the pioneering work of Norman Borlaug represented an important advance in this longer process of biological innovation. However, well before the Green Revolution, generations of North American farmers overcame significant climatic challenges.

DOI:10.1073/pnas.1008279108 (Full Text)

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next