Monday, Nov 3
Melvin Stephens, Estimating Program Benefits
Lam, David. 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History." PSC Research Report No. 11-743. August 2011.
World population will reach 7 billion in 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. World population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of non-renewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell over most of the period, and there were significant declines in poverty in much of the developing world. The paper considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.