News in the Noise: New Evidence on the Validity of Survey Data on Earnings

This paper reports evidence on the error properties of survey reports of labor market variables such as earnings and work hours. Our primary data source is the PSID Validation Study, a two-wave panel survey of a sample of workers employed by a large firm which also allowed us access to its very detailed records of its workers' earnings, etc.

We find that individuals' reports of earnings are fairly accurately reported, and the errors are negatively related to true earnings. The latter property reduces the bias due to measurement error when earnings are used as an independent variable, but (unlike the classical-error case) leads to some bias when earnings are the dependent variable. Measurement-error-induced biases when change in earnings is the variable of interest are larger, but not dramatically so. Earnings per hour were much less reliably reported than annual earnings.