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Sastry's 10-year study of New Orleans Katrina evacuees shows demographic differences between returning and nonreturning

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Deirdre Bloome wins ASA award for work on racial inequality and intergenerational transmission

Bob Willis awarded 2015 Jacob Mincer Award for Lifetime Contributions to the Field of Labor Economics

David Lam is new director of Institute for Social Research

Elizabeth Bruch wins Robert Merton Prize for paper in analytic sociology

Next Brown Bag

Monday, Oct 12
Joe Grengs, Policy & Planning for Social Equity in Transportation

Inappropriate Confidence and Retirement Planning: Four Studies with a National Sample

Publication Abstract

Parker, A., W. de Bruin, J. Yoong, and Robert Willis. 2012. "Inappropriate Confidence and Retirement Planning: Four Studies with a National Sample." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(4): 382-389.

Financial decisions about investing and saving for retirement are increasingly complex, requiring financial knowledge and confidence in that knowledge. Few studies have examined whether direct assessments of individuals' confidence are related to the outcomes of their financial decisions. Here, we analyzed data from a national sample recruited through RAND's American Life Panel (ALP), an internet panel of U.S. adults aged 18 to 88. We examined the relationship of confidence with self-reported and actual financial decisions, using four different tasks, each performed by overlapping samples of ALP participants. The four tasks were designed by different researchers for different purposes, using different methods to assess confidence. Yet, measures of confidence were correlated across tasks, and results were consistent across methodologies. Confidence and knowledge showed only modest positive correlations. However, even after controlling for actual knowledge, individuals with greater confidence were more likely to report financial planning for retirement and to successfully minimize fees on a hypothetical investment task. Implications for the role of confidence (even if it is unjustified) in investment behavior is discussed.

DOI:10.1002/bdm.745 (Full Text)

PMCID: PMC3462465. (Pub Med Central)

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