Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Cheng finds marriage may not be best career option for women

Lam discusses youth population dynamics and economics in sub-Saharan Africa

Work by Bailey and Dynarski cited in NYT piece on income inequality

Highlights

Jeff Morenoff makes Reuters' Highly Cited Researchers list for 2014

Susan Murphy named Distinguished University Professor

Sarah Burgard and former PSC trainee Jennifer Ailshire win ASA award for paper

James Jackson to be appointed to NSF's National Science Board

Next Brown Bag


PSC Brown Bags will return in the fall

Inappropriate Confidence and Retirement Planning: Four Studies with a National Sample

Publication Abstract

Parker, A., W. de Bruin, J. Yoong, and Robert Willis. 2012. "Inappropriate Confidence and Retirement Planning: Four Studies with a National Sample." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(4): 382-389.

Financial decisions about investing and saving for retirement are increasingly complex, requiring financial knowledge and confidence in that knowledge. Few studies have examined whether direct assessments of individuals' confidence are related to the outcomes of their financial decisions. Here, we analyzed data from a national sample recruited through RAND's American Life Panel (ALP), an internet panel of U.S. adults aged 18 to 88. We examined the relationship of confidence with self-reported and actual financial decisions, using four different tasks, each performed by overlapping samples of ALP participants. The four tasks were designed by different researchers for different purposes, using different methods to assess confidence. Yet, measures of confidence were correlated across tasks, and results were consistent across methodologies. Confidence and knowledge showed only modest positive correlations. However, even after controlling for actual knowledge, individuals with greater confidence were more likely to report financial planning for retirement and to successfully minimize fees on a hypothetical investment task. Implications for the role of confidence (even if it is unjustified) in investment behavior is discussed.

DOI:10.1002/bdm.745 (Full Text)

PMCID: PMC3462465. (Pub Med Central)

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next