Gauging the Reliabiity of Desired Family Size in the People's Republic of China

Ascertaining the ideal or desired family size in the People's Republic of China poses special challenges, given the existence of a strong government policy and the experience from past political campaigns that the expression of disagreement with official policy may have adverse repercussions. Despite these cautions a large number of surveys in the People's Republic of China have inquired about family size preference. This study attempts to gauge the reliability of responses to such surveys by comparing the results of two surveys conducted in Shanghai: China's In- Depth Fertility Survey, conducted by China's State Statistical Bureau and the municipality of Shanghai during April 1985 and the Shanghai Survey of Desired Family Size, organized and conducted by co-author Xian Liu between 1983 and 1984. The first survey was conducted face-to-face, the second using methods that allowed the respondent to answer anonymously. Results showed that in the In- Depth Fertility Survey only a trivial percentage of women with two or fewer children expressed a desire for three or more children; and two thirds of those with three or more children expressed a preference for two or fewer children. By contrast, in the Shanghai Survey of Desired Family Size, more than a third of the women who currently had two children expressed a desire for three or more and 95 percent of those with three or more children reported that they desired three or more. On the basis of the evidence presented there is good reason to presume that women in Shanghai underreport their desired family size in the usual face-to-face interview. By noting Shanghai's level of economic development and its ranking on desired family size in Table 1, it is fair to assume that there is general underreporting on this measure throughout China.