Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Stephenson assessing in-home HIV testing and counseling for male couples

Thompson says mass incarceration causes collapse of Detroit neighborhoods

Liberal-conservative gap by education level growing in U.S.

Highlights

Maggie Levenstein named director of ISR's Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research

Arline Geronimus receives 2016 Harold R. Johnson Diversity Service Award

PSC spring 2016 newsletter: Kristin Seefeldt, Brady West, newly funded projects, ISR Runs for Bob, and more

AAUP reports on faculty compensation by category, affiliation, and academic rank

Next Brown Bag

PSC Brown Bags
will resume fall 2016

Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime

Publication Abstract

McMillon, David, Carl Simon, and Jeffrey Morenoff. 2014. "Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime." PLOS ONE, 9(4): e88923.

The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters—patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars—we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0088923 (Full Text)

PMCID: PMC3973672. (Pub Med Central)

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next