Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Seefeldt says 'consumption smoothing' behavior makes long-term recovery more difficult for economically vulnerable

Seefeldt criticizes Kansas legislation restricting daily cash withdrawals from public assistance funds

Prescott says sex offender registries may increase recidivism by making offender re-assimilation impossible

Highlights

Elizabeth Bruch wins Robert Merton Prize for paper in analytic sociology

Elizabeth Bruch wins ASA award for paper in mathematical sociology

Spring 2015 PSC newletter available now

Formal demography workshop and conference at UC Berkeley, August 17-21

Next Brown Bag

PSC Brown Bags will be back fall 2015


Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime

Publication Abstract

McMillon, David, Carl Simon, and Jeffrey Morenoff. 2014. "Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime." PLOS ONE, 9(4): e88923.

The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters—patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars—we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0088923 (Full Text)

PMCID: PMC3973672. (Pub Med Central)

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next