Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Eisenberg says many colleges now train campus personnel to spot and refer troubled college students

Owen-Smith says universities must demonstrate value of higher education

Armstrong says USC's removal of questions from a required Title IX training module may reflect student-administration relations

Highlights

PRB training program in policy communication for pre-docs. Application deadline, 2.28.2016

Call for proposals: PSID small grants for research on life course impacts on later life wellbeing

PSC News, fall 2015 now available

Barbara Anderson appointed chair of Census Scientific Advisory Committee

Next Brown Bag

Monday, Feb 1 at noon, 6050 ISR-Thompson
Sarah Miller

European Sub-Replacement Fertility: Trapped or Recovering?

Publication Abstract

Download PDF versionLesthaeghe, Ron J., and Iñaki Permanyer. 2014. "European Sub-Replacement Fertility: Trapped or Recovering?" PSC Research Report No. 14-822. June 2014.

After at least two decades of sub-replacement fertility in virtually all European countries, some theories expect a reversal of the decline whereas others see a "low fertility trap." In this article we take a longitudinal, life-cycle view of fertility rather than operate with the classic period TFR, and document how two clusters of countries and regions of respectively higher versus lower fertility have come into existence. We refute the statistical basis of fertility rising with improving human development (HDI) or any other such general composite index. Instead we show that the bottlenecks are much more specific and are due to particular mixes of factors in the various countries. We predict the continuation of structural below replacement fertility for the second decade of the 21st Century in Europe. German-speaking countries could escape from the low fertility trap if they adjust their child-care and school organization, but for southern and formerly Communist countries (FCCs), that escape will be more difficult given the existence of multiple disadvantages.

Countries of focus: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next