Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Yang comments on importance of migrant remittances to future of recipient families

Frey says America's black population is changing with recent immigration

Bailey and Danziger's War on Poverty book reviewed in NY Review of Books

Highlights

Hicken wins 2015 UROP Outstanding Research Mentor Award

U-M ranked #1 in Sociology of Population by USN&WR's "Best Graduate Schools"

PAA 2015 Annual Meeting: Preliminary program and list of UM participants

ISR addition wins LEED Gold Certification

Next Brown Bag

Mon, May 18
Lois Verbrugge, Disability Experience & Measurement

European Sub-Replacement Fertility: Trapped or Recovering?

Publication Abstract

Download PDF versionLesthaeghe, Ron J., and Iñaki Permanyer. 2014. "European Sub-Replacement Fertility: Trapped or Recovering?" PSC Research Report No. 14-822. June 2014.

After at least two decades of sub-replacement fertility in virtually all European countries, some theories expect a reversal of the decline whereas others see a "low fertility trap." In this article we take a longitudinal, life-cycle view of fertility rather than operate with the classic period TFR, and document how two clusters of countries and regions of respectively higher versus lower fertility have come into existence. We refute the statistical basis of fertility rising with improving human development (HDI) or any other such general composite index. Instead we show that the bottlenecks are much more specific and are due to particular mixes of factors in the various countries. We predict the continuation of structural below replacement fertility for the second decade of the 21st Century in Europe. German-speaking countries could escape from the low fertility trap if they adjust their child-care and school organization, but for southern and formerly Communist countries (FCCs), that escape will be more difficult given the existence of multiple disadvantages.

Countries of focus: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next