Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Axinn says data show incidents of sexual assault start at 'very young age'

Miech on 'generational forgetting' about drug-use dangers

Impacts of H-1B visas: Lower prices and higher production - or lower wages and higher profits?

More News

Highlights

Call for papers: Conference on computational social science, April 2017, U-M

Sioban Harlow honored with 2017 Sarah Goddard Power Award for commitment to women's health

Post-doc fellowship in computational social science for summer or fall 2017, U-Penn

ICPSR Summer Program scholarships to support training in statistics, quantitative methods, research design, and data analysis

More Highlights

Next Brown Bag

Mon, Feb 13, 2017, noon:
Daniel Almirall, "Getting SMART about adaptive interventions"

David Lam photo

Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability and Births

Publication Abstract

Lam, David, Jeffrey A. Miron, and Ann Riley. "Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability and Births." PSC Research Report No. 92-244. 7 1992.

This paper uses a model of seasonal fluctuation in fecundability and births to analyze the plausibility of several proposed explanations of birth seasonality. We begin with a model of fecundability at the individual level that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the role of coital frequency, sperm concentration, and fetal loss. The individual level model is expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in total births at the population level, explicitly accounting for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. Simulation of the model suggest that fluctuations in the components of fecundability in response to extreme heat could plausibly generate changes in conception rates similar in magnitude to observed patterns. Little independent evidence exists, however, to confirm the effects of extreme heat on the components of fecundability.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next