Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

The Economist cites Inglehart in piece on strength of populists

Ela and Budnick find higher unintended pregnancy risk among non-heterosexual women

Patrick, Schulenberg et al. find trends in frequent binge drinking among teens vary by race, sex, SES

More News

Highlights

Bailey, Eisenberg , and Fomby promoted at PSC

Former PSC trainee Eric Chyn wins PAA's Dorothy S. Thomas Award for best paper

Celebrating departing PSC trainees

Bloome finds children raised outside stable 2-parent families more likely to become low-income adults, regardless of parents' income

More Highlights

David Lam photo

Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability and Births

Publication Abstract

Lam, David, Jeffrey A. Miron, and Ann Riley. "Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability and Births." PSC Research Report No. 92-244. 7 1992.

This paper uses a model of seasonal fluctuation in fecundability and births to analyze the plausibility of several proposed explanations of birth seasonality. We begin with a model of fecundability at the individual level that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the role of coital frequency, sperm concentration, and fetal loss. The individual level model is expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in total births at the population level, explicitly accounting for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. Simulation of the model suggest that fluctuations in the components of fecundability in response to extreme heat could plausibly generate changes in conception rates similar in magnitude to observed patterns. Little independent evidence exists, however, to confirm the effects of extreme heat on the components of fecundability.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next