Recent Fertility Declines in Hong Kong

A decline of 27% in the birth rate of Hong Kong between 1961 and 1966 has attracted considerable attention. An analysis indicates that the large decline between 1961 and 1965 (19%) was largely due to a change in the age-sex-marital status distribution. However, the decline of 10% between 1965 and 1966 was not due to such causes to any substantial extent. There appears to be a plausible relation between the decline for 1965-66 and a preceding increase in the activities and IUD insertion programme of the Hong Kong Family Planning Programme. The changing age pattern of the fertility decline in the period 1965-66 is plausibly related to the age pattern for IUD acceptances. The present small proportion of women in the prime childbearing years will shortly disappear. Therefore, the age-specific birth rates will have to decline substantially in the coming years if there is to be any continuing decrease in the crude birth rate.