Population Redistribution and the Ethnic Balance in Transcaucasia

Among the important long-term changes of Transcaucasia that give evidence of social relations among ethnic groups even during the period of Soviet control of the region was the reduction in the ethnic heterogeneity of the region and of the constituent republics (now countries). The authors examine evidence of these trends, both in terms of the outmigration of Russians and others from the region and in terms of the cross-migration of the major Transcaucasian nationalities before the massive flows of refugees began in the late 1980s. Three main factors led to this long-term reduction in ethnic heterogeneity in the Transcaucasus: high fertility rates of the indigenous populations, especially of the Armenians and Azerbaijanis; emigration from Transcaucasia by members of non-Transcaucasian nationalities, primarily by Russians; and migration by members of Transcaucasian nationalities from neighboring Transcaucasian republics to their own republics. While these migration trends were probably driven in part by conditions in the overall labor market of the Soviet Union, they seem also to have been strongly affected by the social climate, local policies, and interethnic attitudes. In short, a trend toward indigenization was clear long before the upsurge of violence in the region. However, especially beginning in 1988 the pace of indigenization within Transcaucasia increased dramatically in connection with a communal conflict that resulted in major refugee flows.

Dataset(s): Census: Soviet Union, 1926, 1959, 1970, 1979, and 1989.