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Lam says tightening global labor market good for American workers

Johnston says e-cigs may reverse two-decades of progress on smoking reduction

Mueller-Smith finds incarceration increases the likelihood of committing more, and more serious, crimes


Bob Willis awarded 2015 Jacob Mincer Award for Lifetime Contributions to the Field of Labor Economics

David Lam is new director of Institute for Social Research

Elizabeth Bruch wins Robert Merton Prize for paper in analytic sociology

Elizabeth Bruch wins ASA award for paper in mathematical sociology

Next Brown Bag

PSC Brown Bags will be back fall 2015

Michael R. Elliott's Select Publications

Journal Articles

Curry, Allison, Melissa Pfeiffer, Michael R. Elliott, and Dennis Durbin. Forthcoming. "Association between New Jersey's Graduated Driver Licensing decal provision and crash rates of young drivers with learners' permits." Injury Prevention. DOI. Abstract.

Winston, F., J. Mirman, A. Curry, M. Pfeiffer, Michael R. Elliott, and D. Durbin. 2015. "Engagement with the TeenDrivingPlan and diversity of teens' supervised practice driving: lessons for internet-based learner driver interventions." Injury Prevention, 21(1): 4-9. DOI. Abstract.

Paramsothy, P., Sioban D. Harlow, Michael R. Elliott, M. Yosef, Lynda Diane Lisabeth, G. Greendale, E. Gold, S. Crawford, and J.r. Randolph. 2015. "Influence of race/ethnicity, body mass index, and proximity of menopause on menstrual cycle patterns in the menopausal transition: the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation." Menopause-the Journal of the North American Menopause Society, 22(2): 159-165. PMCID: PMC4295005. DOI. Abstract.

Curry, A., Michael R. Elliott, M. Pfeiffer, K. Kim, and D. Durbin. 2015. "Long-Term Changes in Crash Rates After Introduction of a Graduated Driver Licensing Decal Provision." American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 48(2): 121-127. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., A.C. Conlon, Y. Li, N. Kaciroti, and J.G. Taylor. 2015. "Surrogacy marker paradox measures in meta-analytic settings." Biostatistics (Oxford, England), 16(2): 400-12. PMCID: PMC4366594. DOI. Abstract.

Curry, Allison E., Melissa R. Pfeiffer, Dennis R. Durbin, Michael R. Elliott, and Konny H. Kim. 2015. "Young driver licensing: Examination of population-level rates using New Jersey's state licensing database." Accident Analysis and Prevention, 76: 49-56. DOI. Abstract.

Mehta, Neil, James S. House, and Michael R. Elliott. 2015. "Dynamics of health behaviours and socioeconomic differences in mortality in the USA." Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 69(5): 416-422. PMCID: PMC4451600. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., and Brady Thomas West. 2015. ""Clustering by Interviewer": A Source of Variance That Is Unaccounted for in Single-Stage Health Surveys." American Journal of Epidemiology, 182(2): 118-126. DOI. Abstract.

Curry, A., M. Pfeiffer, D. Durbin, and Michael R. Elliott. 2015. "Young driver crash rates by licensing age, driving experience, and license phase." Accident Analysis & Prevention, 80: 243-250. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., and Roderick Little. 2015. "Discussion of "On Bayesian Estimation of Marginal Structural Models"." Biometrics, 71(2): 288-291. DOI.

Nishimura, Raphael, James Wagner, and Michael R. Elliott. Online Access 2015. "Alternative Indicators for the Risk of Non-response Bias: A Simulation Study." International Statistical Review, . DOI. Abstract.

Clarke, Philippa J., Jeffrey Morenoff, M. Debbink, E. Golberstein, Michael R. Elliott, and Paula M. Lantz. 2014. "Cumulative Exposure to Neighborhood Context: Consequences for Health Transitions over the Adult Life Course." Research on Aging, 36(1): 115-142. PMCID: PMC3900407. DOI. Abstract.

Huang, Xiaobi, Michael R. Elliott, and Sioban D. Harlow. 2014. "Modelling menstrual cycle length and variability at the approach of menopause by using hierarchical change point models." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C: Applied Statistics, 63(3): 445-466. PMCID: PMC3979630. DOI. Abstract.

Conlon, Anna S., Jeremy M. G. Taylor, and Michael R. Elliott. 2014. "Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification when surrogate and outcome measures are multivariate normal." Biostatistics, 15(2): 266-283. PMCID: PMC4023321. DOI. Abstract.

Curry, Alison E., Melissa R. Pfeiffer, Rachel K. Myers, Dennis R. Durbin, and Michael R. Elliott. 2014. "Statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes." Accident Analysis & Prevention, 65: 28-35. PMCID: PMC3925061. DOI. Abstract.

Gao, Xin, Gregory K. Brown, and Michael R. Elliott. 2014. "Joint modeling compliance and outcome for causal analysis in longitudinal studies." Statistics in Medicine, 33(20): 3453-65. PMCID: PMC3788835. DOI. Abstract.

Dong, Q., Michael R. Elliott, and Trivellore Raghunathan. 2014. "Combining information from multiple complex surveys." Survey Methodology, 40(2): 347-354. Abstract.

Mirman, J., A. Curry, F. Winston, W. Wang, Michael R. Elliott, M. Schultheis, M. Thiel, and D. Durbin. 2014. "Effect of the Teen Driving Plan on the Driving Performance of Teenagers Before Licensure A Randomized Clinical Trial." Jama Pediatrics, 168(8): 764-771. DOI. Abstract.

West, Brady Thomas, and Michael R. Elliott. 2014. "Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for comparing interviewer variance components in two groups of survey interviewers." Survey Methodology, 40(2): 163-188. Abstract.

Dong, Q., Michael R. Elliott, and Trivellore Raghunathan. 2014. "A nonparametric method to generate synthetic populations to adjust for complex sampling design features." Survey Methodology, 40(1): 29-46. Abstract.

Flannagan, C., Michael R. Elliott, N. Mann, and J. Rupp. 2014. "Sampling Serious Injuries in Traffic Crashes at the State Level." Transportation Research Record, (2432): 118-123. DOI. Abstract.

Belanger, K., S. Buka, D. Cherry, D. Dudley, Michael R. Elliott, D. Hale, I. Hertz-Picciotto, J. Illuzzi, N. Paneth, J. Robbins, E. Triche, and M. Bracken. 2013. "Implementing Provider-based Sampling for the National Children's Study: Opportunities and Challenges." Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 27(1): 20-26. DOI. Abstract.

Burgard, Sarah, Michael R. Elliott, Kara Zivin, and James S. House. 2013. "Working Conditions and Depressive Symptoms: A Prospective Study of US Adults." Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 55(9): 1007-14. PMCID: PMC3951142. DOI. Abstract.

Do, D., L. Wang, and Michael R. Elliott. 2013. "Investigating the relationship between neighborhood poverty and mortality risk: A marginal structural modeling approach." Social Science & Medicine, 91: 58-66. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., Yun Li, and Jeremy M.G. Taylor. 2013. "Accommodating missingness when assessing surrogacy via principal stratification." Clinical Trials, 10(3): 363-377. PMCID: PMC4096330. DOI. Abstract.

Kerver, J., Michael R. Elliott, G. Norman, R. Sokol, D. Keating, G. Copeland, C. Johnson, K. Cislo, K. Alcser, S. Kruger-Ndiaye, B. Pennell, S. Mehta, C.M. Joseph, and N. Paneth. 2013. "Pregnancy Recruitment for Population Research: the National Children's Study Vanguard Experience in Wayne County, Michigan." Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 27(3): 303-311. PMCID: PMC3673293. DOI. Abstract.

Paramsothy, P., Sioban D. Harlow, Michael R. Elliott, L. Lisabeth, S. Crawford, and J.F. Randolph. 2013. "Classifying menopause stage by menstrual calendars and annual interviews: need for improved questionnaires." Menopause, 20(7): 727-35. PMCID: PMC3686995. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., Anna Conlon, and Yun Li. 2013. "Discussion on “Surrogate Measures and Consistent Surrogates”." Biometrics, 69(3): 569-572. DOI.

Zhang, Nanhua, Harolyn W. Baker, Margaret Tufts, Randall E. Raymond, Hamisu Salihu, and Michael R. Elliott. 2013. "Early childhood lead exposure and academic achievement." American Journal of Public Health, 103(3): e72-e77. PMCID: PMC3673523. DOI. Abstract.

Huang, X., Sioban D. Harlow, and Michael R. Elliott. 2012. "Distinguishing 6 Population Subgroups by Timing and Characteristics of the Menopausal Transition." American Journal of Epidemiology, 175(1): 74-83. PMCID: PMC3276254. DOI. Abstract.

Karb, Rebecca A., Michael R. Elliott, Jennifer B. Dowd, and Jeffrey Morenoff. 2012. "Neighborhood-level stressors, social support, and diurnal patterns of cortisol: The Chicago Community Adult Health Study." Social Science & Medicine, 75(6): 1038-1047. PMCID: PMC3556931. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., L. Jacobsohn, F. Winston, and K. Ginsburg. 2012. "Determining Subgroups of Teens for Targeted Driving Injury Prevention Strategies: A Latent Class Analysis Approach." Traffic Injury Prevention, 13(3): 258-264. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., M. Sammel, and Jessica Faul. 2012. "Associations between variability of risk factors and health outcomes in longitudinal studies." Statistics in Medicine, 31(23): 2745-2756. PMCID: PMC3470883. DOI. Abstract.

Hunte, H., G. Mentz, James S. House, A. Schulz, David R. Williams, Michael R. Elliott, Jeffrey Morenoff, and D. White-Perkins. 2012. "Variations in hypertension-related outcomes among Blacks, Whites and Hispanics in two large urban areas and in the United States." Ethnicity & Disease, 22(4): 391-7. PMCID: PMC3579519. Abstract.

Nechuta, S., L. Mudd, Michael R. Elliott, James M. Lepkowski, and N. Paneth. 2012. "Attitudes of pregnant women towards collection of biological specimens during pregnancy and at birth." Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 26(3): 272-5. DOI. Abstract.

Li, Yun, Jeremy Taylor, Michael R. Elliott, and Daniel J. Sargent. 2011. "Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials." Biometrics, 12(3): 478-492. PMCID: PMC3114655. DOI. Abstract.

Cain, K., Sioban D. Harlow, R. J. A. Little, B. Nan, M. Yosef, J. Taffe, and Michael R. Elliott. 2011. "Bias Due to Left Truncation and Left Censoring in Longitudinal Studies of Developmental and Disease Processes." American Journal of Epidemiology, 173(9): 1078-1084. PMCID: PMC3121224. DOI. Abstract.

Zonfrillo, M., Michael R. Elliott, C. Flannagan, and D. Durbin. 2011. "Association Between Weight and Risk of Crash-Related Injuries for Children in Child Restraints." Pediatrics, 128(6): 1148-1152. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R. 2011. "A Simple Method to Generate Equal-Sized Homogenous Strata or Clusters for Population-Based Sampling." Annals of Epidemiology, 21(4): 290-296. PMCID: PMC3073640. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., Trivellore Raghunathan, and Y. Li. 2010. "Bayesian inference for causal mediation effects using principal stratification with dichotomous mediators and outcomes." Biostatistics, 11(2): 353-372. PMCID: PMC2830580. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., A. Resler, C.A. Flannagan, and J.D. Rupp. 2010. "Appropriate analysis of CIREN data: Using NASS-CDS to reduce bias in estimation of injury risk factors in passenger vehicle crashes." Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(2): 530-539. DOI. Abstract.

Chen, Q.X., Michael R. Elliott, and R.J. Little. 2010. "Bayesian penalized spline model-based inference for finite population proportion in unequal probability sampling." Survey Methodology, 36(1): 23-34. Abstract. Public Access.

Chen, Q.X., D.H. Garabrant, E. Hedgeman, R.J. Little, Michael R. Elliott, B. Gillespie, B. Hong, S.Y. Lee, James M. Lepkowski, A. Franzblau, P. Adriaens, A.H. Demond, and D.G. Patterson. 2010. "Estimation of Background Serum 2,3,7,8-TCDD Concentrations By Using Quantile Regression in the UMDES and NHANES Populations." Epidemiology, 21: S51-S57. DOI. Abstract.

Li, Y., J.M. Taylor, and Michael R. Elliott. 2010. "A Bayesian Approach to Surrogacy Assessment Using Principal Stratification in Clinical Trials." Biometrics, 66(2): 523-531. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R. 2010. "Matched Cohort Analysis in Traffic Injury Epidemiology: Including Adults when Estimating Exposure Risks for Children." Injury Prevention, 16: 367-371. DOI. Abstract.

Ghosh, D., Michael R. Elliott, and J.M. Taylor. 2010. "Links between Analysis of Surrogate Endpoints and Endogenity." Statistics in Medicine, 29(26): 2869–2879. PMCID: PMC2997195. DOI. Abstract.

Kallan, M.J., K.B. Arbogast, Michael R. Elliott, and D.R. Durbin. 2009. "Non-fatal and fatal crash injury risk for children in minivans compared with children in sport utility vehicles." Injury Prevention, 15(1): 8-12. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R. 2009. "Model Averaging Methods for Weight Trimming in Generalized Linear Regression Models." Journal of Official Statistics, 25(1): 1-20. PMCID: PMC3530169. Abstract.

Nechuta, Sarah, Lanay M. Mudd, Lynette Biery, Michael R. Elliott, James M. Lepkowski, and Nigel Paneth. 2009. "Attitudes of pregnant women towards participation in perinatal epidemiological research." Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 23(5): 424-430. DOI. Abstract.

Gallop, Robert, Dylan S. Small, Julia Y. Lin, Michael R. Elliott, Marshall Joffe, and Thomas R. Ten Have. 2009. "Mediation analysis with principal stratification." Statistics in Medicine, 28(7): 1108-1130. PMCID: PMC2669107. DOI. Abstract.

Branas, C.C., Michael R. Elliott, T.S. Richmond, D.P. Culhane, and D.J. Wiebe. 2009. "Alcohol Consumption, Alcohol Outlets, and the Risk of Being Assaulted With a Gun." Alcoholism-Clinical and Experimental Research, 33(5): 906-915. PMCID: PMC2831052. DOI. Abstract.

Garcia-Espana, J.F., K.R. Ginsburg, D.R. Durbin, Michael R. Elliott, and F.K. Winston. 2009. "Primary Access to Vehicles Increases Risky Teen Driving Behaviors and Crashes: National Perspective." Pediatrics, 124(4): 1069-1075. DOI. Abstract.

Lin, J.Y., T.R. Ten Have, and Michael R. Elliott. 2009. "Nested Markov Compliance Class Model in the Presence of Time-Varying Noncompliance." Biometrics, 65(2): 505-513. PMCID: PMC2700859. DOI. Abstract.

Wiebe, D.J., R.T. Krafty, C.S. Koper, M.L. Nance, Michael R. Elliott, and C.C. Branas. 2009. "Homicide and geographic access to gun dealers in the United States." Bmc Public Health, 9. PMCID: PMC2714509. DOI. Abstract.

Downes, K.J., J.P. Metlay, L.M. Bell, K.L. McGowan, Michael R. Elliott, and S.S. Shah. 2008. "Polymicrobial bloodstream infections among children and adolescents with central venous catheters evaluated in ambulatory care." Clinical Infectious Diseases, 46(3): 387-394. DOI. Abstract.

Shah, S.S., K.J. Downes, Michael R. Elliott, L.M. Bell, K.L. McGowan, and J.P. Metlay. 2008. "How long does it take to "Rule Out" bacteremia in children with central venous catheters?" Pediatrics, 121(1): 135-141. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., K.R. Ginsburg, and F.K. Winston. 2008. "Unlicensed Teenaged Drivers: Who Are They, and How Do They Behave When They Are Behind the Wheel?" Pediatrics, 122(5): E994-E1000. DOI. Abstract.

Ginsburg, K.R., F.K. Winston, T.M. Senserrick, F. Garcia-Espana, S. Kinsman, A. Quistberg, J.G. Ross, and Michael R. Elliott. 2008. "National young-driver survey: Teen perspective and experience with factors that affect driving safety." Pediatrics, 121(5): E1391-E1403. DOI. Abstract.

Lin, J.Y., T.R. Ten Have, and Michael R. Elliott. 2008. "Longitudinal nested compliance class model in the presence of time-varying noncompliance." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(482): 462-473. PMCID: PMC2700859. DOI. Abstract.

Mudd, L.M., X. Pham, S. Nechuta, Michael R. Elliott, James M. Lepkowski, N. Paneth, and C. Michigan Alliance Natl. 2008. "Prenatal care and delivery room staff attitudes toward research and the National Children's Study." Maternal and Child Health Journal, 12(6): 684-691. DOI. Abstract.

Winston, F.K., M.J. Kallan, T.M. Senserrick, and Michael R. Elliott. 2008. "Risk factors for death among older child and teenaged motor vehicle passengers." Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine, 162(3): 253-260. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R. 2008. "Model Averaging Methods for Weight Trimming." Journal of Official Statistics, 24(4): 517-540. PMCID: PMC2783643. Abstract. Public Access.

Elliott, Michael R., and N. Stettler. 2007. "Using a Mixture Model for Multiple Imputation in the Presence of Outliers: The Child Obesity Project." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C: Applied Statistics, 56: 63-78. DOI.

Winston, F. K., M. J. Kallan, Michael R. Elliott, D. Xie, and D. R. Durbin. 2007. "Effect of Booster Seat Laws on Appropriate Restraint Use by 4-7 year old Children in Crashes." Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, 161: 270-275.

Smith, R., F. K. Winston, M. J. Kallan, Michael R. Elliott, and D. R. Durbin. 2007. "Seat belt use among 13-15 year olds in primary and secondary enforcement law states." Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39(3): 524-529. DOI.

Elliott, Michael R. 2007. "Bayesian Weight Trimming for Generalized Linear Regression Models." Survey Methodology, 33(1): 25-34.

Bingham, C. R., J. T. Shope, and Michael R. Elliott. 2007. "Social and Behavioral Characteristics of Young Adult Drink/Drivers Adjusted for Level of Alcohol Use." Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 31(4): 655-664. DOI.

Elliott, Michael R. 2007. "Identifying Latent Clusters of Variability in Longitudinal Data." Biostatistics, 8: 756-771. DOI.

Donovan, J.M., Michael R. Elliott, and D.F. Heitjan. 2007. "Predicting event. times in clinical trials when randomization is masked and blocked." Clinical Trials, 4(5): 481-490. Abstract.

Lin, J.Y., T.R. Ten Have, H.R. Bogner, and Michael R. Elliott. 2007. "Baseline patient characteristics and mortality associated with longitudinal intervention compliance." Statistics in Medicine, 26(28): 5100-5115. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., J.T. Shope, Trivellore Raghunathan, and P.F. Waller. 2006. "Gender Differences Among Young Drivers in the Association between High-Risk Driving and Substance Use/Environmental Influences." Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 67(2): 252-260. PMCID: PMC1538974. Abstract.

Chen, I.G., D.R. Durbin, Michael R. Elliott, T. Senserrick, and F.K. Winston. 2006. "Child passenger injury risk in motor vehicle crashes: A comparison of nighttime and daytime driving by teenage and adult drivers." Journal of Safety Research, 37(3), 299-306. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., M.M. Joffe, and Z. Chen. 2006. "A potential outcomes approach to developmental toxicity analyses." Biometrics, 62(2), 352-360. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., M.J. Kallan, D.R. Durbin, and F.K. Winston. 2006. "Effectiveness of child safety seats vs seat belts in reducing risk for death in children in passenger vehicle crashes." Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, 160(6), 617-621. Abstract.

Rosenthal, I., P.R. Kleindorfer, and Michael R. Elliott. 2006. "Predicting and confirming the effectiveness of systems for managing low-probability chemical process risks." Process Safety Progress, 25(2),135-155. DOI. Abstract.

Donovan, J.M., Michael R. Elliott, and D.F. Heitjan. 2006. "Predicting event times in clinical trials when treatment arm is masked." Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 16(3): 343-356. DOI. Abstract.

Donoghue, A. J., V. Nadkarni, Michael R. Elliott, and D. B. Durbin. 2006. "Effect of Hospital Characteristics on Outcomes from Pediatric Cardiac Resuscitation: A Report from the National Registry of CPR." Pediatrics, 118: 995-1001. DOI. Abstract.

Winston, F. K., I. G. Chen, R. Smith, and Michael R. Elliott. 2006. "Parent Driver Characteristics Associated with Sub-Optimal Restraint of Child Passengers." Traffic Injury Prevention, 7: 373-380. DOI. Abstract.

Elliott, Michael R., Trivellore Raghunathan, and J.T. Shope. 2002. "The Effect of Duration and Delay of Licensure on Risk of Crash: a Bayesian Analysis of Repeated Time-to-Event Measures." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97:420-431. Abstract.

Palaniappan, L., M.N. Anthony, C. Mahesh, Michael R. Elliott, A. Killeen, D. Giacherio, and M. Rubenfire. 2002. "Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Ethnic Minority Women Aged <= 30 Years." American Journal of Cardiology, 89:524-529. Abstract.

Shope, J.T., L.J. Molnar, Michael R. Elliott, and P.F. Waller. 2001. "Graduated Driver Licensing in Michigan - Early Impact on Motor Vehicle Crashes Among 16-Year-Old Drivers." JAMA-Journal of the American Medical Association, 286:1593-1598. Abstract.

Shope, J.T., Michael R. Elliott, Trivellore Raghunathan, and P.F. Waller. 2001. "Long-Term Follow-up of a High School Alcohol Misuse Prevention Program's Effect on Students' Subsequent Driving." Alcoholism-Clinical and Experimental Research, 25(3): 403-10. Abstract.


Elliott, Michael R., Yun Li, and Jeremy M. G. Taylor. 2013. "Missing Data in Principal Surrogacy Settings." In Topics in Applied Statistics (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics) edited by Hu, M., Liu, Y., Lin, J.. DOI. Abstract.

PSC Reports

Do, D. Phuong, Lu Wang, and Michael R. Elliott. 2012. "Investigating the Relationship between Neighborhood Poverty and Mortality Risk: A Marginal Structural Modeling Approach." PSC Research Report No. 12-763. June 2012. Abstract. PDF.