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Extreme events impacts of water quality in the Great Lakes: Prediction and Management of nutrient loading in a changing climate

a PSC Research Project

Investigators:   Allison L. Steiner, Derek J. Posselt, Michael R. Moore, Donald Scavia, Dmitry Beletsky, Maria Carmen de Mello Lemos, Daniel G. Brown

Statement of Work for the proposal titled ?Extreme events impacts of water quality in the Great Lakes: Prediction and Management of nutrient loading in a changing climate?
Submitted to Carnegie Institute of Washington from the University of Michigan

The following work will be conducted under this project:
AOSS: Co-Investigators Steiner and Posselt will provide climate information on a spectrum of scales from sub-1km to 1000s of km using a combination of model simulations and investigate the role of hydrologic feedbacks on the formation of precipitation in the Great Lakes region. Two graduate students will be supported on the project to conduct climate model simulation and analysis. Steiner will act as the PI for the University of Michigan subcontract.
Graham Institute: Co-I Scavia will serve as coordinator for the hydrologic and ecological response modeling group, ensuring integration within those efforts and effective communication and integration with the climate, human dynamics, and broader impacts groups. One postdoctoral fellow will be supported and advised by Scavia and will focus on SWAT modeling and interface with the climate and water quality groups, and refinements and uncertainty propagation in the water quality and ecological models. Scavia will manage subcontracts to Grace College, University of Toledo, Heidelberg University, and LimnoTech.
SNRE: Co-Investigators Moore, Brown, and Lemos will study spatial patterns of agricultural production and human settlement in response to climate variability and the use of climate information by organizations within different water governance systems. They will project adaptive responses under future climate simulations and ascertain how water governance systems build capacity to respond to future climate change. Two graduate students and two postdoctoral fellows will be supported on the project to conduct research on spatial adaptations, land cover change, and water governance and to interface with the climate and water quality groups.
SNRE-CILER: Co-Investigator Beletsky will direct the lake-wide hydrodynamic modeling activities. He will use a lake-scale 3D hydrodynamic model to calculate circulation and thermal structure in Lake Erie, particle transport models to determine water residence time and flushing, and test models with observation data. Beletsky will coordinate with climate modeling team (converting atmospheric model output to hydrodynamic model input, including spatial interpolation), hydrological team (obtaining tributary flow data and preparing them for model runs), and ecosystem modeling team (providing open boundary conditions for the fine resolution limited area ecological model). A research analyst/programmer will assist Beletsky with preparation of meteorological data, hydrodynamic model runs and analysis of model results.

Funding Period: 01/01/2012 to 09/30/2016

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