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Back in September
Follow us The effects of racial disparities in health and aging on the future racial composition of the electorate
a PSC Small Grant Research Project
Investigator: Javier Rodriguez
Because minorities, especially Hispanics, are a very young population, their numerical growth – which mostly depends on births and immigration – did not translate into voters in the last decades. But this trend is about to change. To test this premise, the proposed project focuses on five observations: (1) individuals maximize their participation in politics approximately between the ages of 40 and 65 years, (2) this constitutes the period in which minority groups like US-born Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks show a higher mortality rate than non-Hispanic whites, (3) consequently, these minorities have predominantly been low-participation young adults while non-Hispanic whites have predominantly been high-participation middle-age adults, (4) however, higher fertility rates among minority groups and the improvement of life expectancy during the last decades generated an accumulation of young minority cohorts that are now entering the middle-age years, and (5) this aging-driven change in the racial composition of the potential American electorate is beginning to show in recent presidential elections; for example, Hispanic voters are increasingly casting their votes in favor of the Democratic party, from 8% in 2004 to 67% in 2008, and to 71% in 2012 (with an increasing Democratic-to-Republican advantage of 18, 36, and 44% respectively), also representing a growing share of the national voter turnout, from 6.0% in 2004 to 7.6% in 2008, and to 10.0% in 2012. Should these Democratic-reference and turnout trends continue among minority groups, the American two- party system may well go through significant changes in the near future. By using data from the US Census Bureau, the Multiple Causes of Death files, the National Vital Statistical Report series, the Voter News Service General Election Exit Polls, and the Current Population Survey (Voter Supplements), the proposed project outlines how racial disparities in health and aging are at the core of the underlying causal mechanism that may lead toward a historical change in the American political landscape.
| Funding: | PSC Initiatives Fund |
Funding Period: 03/01/2013 to 06/30/2014
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