ISR's Traugott and others speculate on why election projections may have gone awry

an In The Media Reference

"How did pollsters get Trump, Clinton election so wrong?" - USA Today. 11/9/2016.

Hidden/sheepish voters, unexpected voters, flawed polling methods, too few polls, underestimates of partisan turnouts, unanticipated impact of late-breaking news - what were the reasons that, of the 61 national polls tracking a two-party presidential race, only 6 projected the Republican would win? Mike Traugott says a post-election study should assess this issue: "To the extent we think that the election showed a cleavage between white Americans and minority Americans, I think some of the problem probably lies there," he said.

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Michael Traugott


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