ISR's Traugott and others speculate on why election projections may have gone awry

ISR's Traugott and others speculate on why election projections may have gone awry

an In The Media Reference

"How did pollsters get Trump, Clinton election so wrong?" - USA Today. 11/9/2016.

Hidden/sheepish voters, unexpected voters, flawed polling methods, too few polls, underestimates of partisan turnouts, unanticipated impact of late-breaking news - what were the reasons that, of the 61 national polls tracking a two-party presidential race, only 6 projected the Republican would win? Mike Traugott says a post-election study should assess this issue: "To the extent we think that the election showed a cleavage between white Americans and minority Americans, I think some of the problem probably lies there," he said.

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Michael Traugott

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