Monthly Archive for December, 2009

China’s Population to Peak at 1.4 Billion Around 2026

China’s Population to Peak at 1.4 Billion Around 2026. Census Bureau Projects India to Become Most Populous Country in 2025.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

From Press Release:

China’s population is projected to peak at slightly less than 1.4 billion in 2026, both earlier and at a lower level than previously projected. Meanwhile, India’s population is projected to surpass China’s population in 2025, according to new data being released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Census Bureau’s International Data Base includes projections by sex and age to 100-plus for 227 countries and other areas with populations of 5,000 or more and provides information on population size and growth, mortality, fertility and net migration.

These figures come from the population estimates and projections for 227 countries and areas released today through the Census Bureau’s International Data Base. This release includes revisions for 21 countries, including China.

The latest projections indicate that by 2026, the population of China will begin to decline. Population growth in China, the world’s most populous country, is slowing and currently stands at 0.5 percent annually. China surpassed the 1.2 billion population mark in 1994 and reached 1.3 billion in 2006.

According to the latest revisions, India is projected to become the world’s most populous country in 2025. The population growth rate in India currently is about 1.4 percent, nearly three times that of China. The difference in the growth rate between the two countries is explained by fertility. India’s total fertility rate — the number of births a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — is currently estimated at 2.7 and projected to decline slowly, and that is driving population growth in the country.

Death in the United States, 2007

Death in the United States, 2007
By: Arialdi M. Miniño, Jiaquan Xu, Kenneth D. Kochanek, and Betzaida Tejada-Vera
Source: National Center for Health Statistics

* In 2007, the age-adjusted death rate for the United States reached a record low of 760.3 per 100,000 population. Life expectancy at birth reached a record high of 77.9 years.
* States in the southeast region have higher death rates than those in other regions of the country.
* In 2007, the five leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, stroke, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and accidents. These accounted for over 64 percent of all deaths in the United States.
* White females have the longest life expectancy (80.7 years), followed by black females (77.0 years).
* The gap in life expectancy between white persons and black persons declined by 35 percent between 1989 and 2007. The race differential was 4.6 years in 2007.

Full text
Full text (PDF)

Supplemental U.S. Population Projections: 2000-2050

Supplemental U.S. Population Projections: 2000-2050
Source: U.S. Census

The Census Bureau will release a set of four national projections supplementing the series released in August 2008, showing projections to 2050 by age, race, sex and Hispanic origin. These four scenarios assume either high, low, constant or zero international migration between 2000 and 2050. The August 2008 projections remain the preferred series for users.

U.S. Population Projections
2009 National Projections (Supplemental)

New Working Papers from the NBER

Voluntary Public Goods Provision, Coalition Formation, and Uncertainty
By Nicholas E. Burger, Charles D. Kolstad
Abstract; PDF
A Formal Test of Assortative Matching in the Labor Market
By John M. Abowd, Francis Kramarz, Sebastien Perez-Duarte, Ian Schmutte
Abstract; PDF
Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines
By Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro
Abstract; PDF
The Economics of Labor Coercion
By Daron Acemoglu, Alexander Wolitzky
Abstract; PDF
Taxes and Time Allocation: Evidence from Single Women
By Alexander M. Gelber, Joshua W. Mitchell
Abstract; PDF

Pew Analysis Finds That Nearly Three Quarters of Children of Low-Income Parents With High Savings Move Up From the Bottom

Source: Pew Economic Mobility Project

Children born to low-income parents with savings above the median level are more likely to move up the income ladder as adults (71 percent do) than those whose parents are low-income and low-saving (only 50 percent move up from the bottom rung), according to a new report released today by Pew’s Economic Mobility Project. A Penny Saved is Mobility Earned: Advancing Economic Mobility through Savings similarly shows that within an individual’s lifetime, savings increases one’s chances of being upwardly mobile – 34 percent of the adults who had low-savings and were in the bottom income quartile from 1984-1989 had moved up from the bottom by 2003-2005, whereas 55 percent of those who had high-savings moved up by the same time period.

Full Press Release
A Penny Saved is Mobility Earned (PDF)
Renewing the American Dream: A Road Map to Enhancing Economic Mobility in America Summary (PDF); Full Report (PDF)

New Discussion Papers from the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

How Consistent Are Class Size Effects?
Spyros Konstantopoulos
Abstract; PDF
Will There Be Blood? Incentives and Substitution Effects in Pro-social Behavior
Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, Robert Slonim
Abstract; PDF
Some Evidence on the Nature of Urbanization Economies
Douglas J. Krupka
Abstract; PDF
The Impact of Local Decentralization on Economic Growth: Evidence from U.S. Counties
George W. Hammond, Mehmet S. Tosun
Abstract; PDF
Do Better Schools Lead to More Growth? Cognitive Skills, Economic Outcomes, and Causation
Eric A. Hanushek, Ludger Woessmann
Abstract; PDF
Schooling, Cognitive Skills, and the Latin American Growth Puzzle
Eric A. Hanushek, Ludger Woessmann
Abstract; PDF
Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection
Eric Bartelsman, John C. Haltiwanger, Stefano Scarpetta
Abstract; PDF
Intensifying the Use of Benefit Sanctions: An Effective Tool to Shorten Welfare Receipt and Speed Up Transitions to Employment?
Bernhard Boockmann, Stephan Lothar Thomsen, Thomas Walter
Abstract; PDF
Investment in Human Capital during Incarceration and Employment Prospects of Prisoners
Margaret Giles, Anh Tram Le
Abstract; PDF
How Fast Do Wages Adjust to Human-Capital Productivity? Dynamic Panel-Data Evidence from Belgium, Denmark and Finland
Corrado Andini
Abstract; PDF
Tobit or Not Tobit?
Jay Stewart
Abstract; PDF

Educators See More Hungry Students in Their Classrooms

Hunger in America’s Classrooms
Source: American Federation of Teachers

Educators across the nation report that, with increasing frequency, they are witnessing hunger among their students—which affects the ability to concentrate and learn—despite government and private nutrition programs intended to ensure children have enough to eat in and out of school, according to a new survey of classroom instructors released on Nov. 23.

Full report (PDF)

Using State Tests in Education Experiments: A Discussion of the Issues

Using State Tests in Education Experiments: A Discussion of the Issues
By: Henry May, Irma Perez-Johnson, Joshua Haimson, Samina Sattar, Phil Gleason
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences

Securing data on students’ academic achievement is typically one of the most important and costly aspects of conducting education experiments. As state assessment programs have become practically universal and more uniform in terms of grades and subjects tested, the relative appeal of using state tests as a source of study outcome measures has grown. However, the variation in state assessments—in both content and proficiency standards—complicates decisions about whether a particular state test is suitable for research purposes and poses difficulties when planning to combine results across multiple states or grades. This discussion paper aims to help researchers evaluate and make decisions about whether and how to use state test data in education experiments. It outlines the issues that researchers should consider, including how to evaluate the validity and reliability of state tests relative to study purposes; factors influencing the feasibility of collecting state test data; how to analyze state test scores; and whether to combine results based on different tests. It also highlights best practices to help inform ongoing and future experimental studies. Many of the issues discussed are also relevant for non-experimental studies.

Full report (PDF)

2009 Migration Issues

The Top 10 Migration Issues of 2009
Migration Policy Institute

1. The Recession’s Impact on Immigrants
2. Enforcement Tactics Shift in the Obama Era — But What About Immigration Reform?
3. Buyer’s Remorse on Immigration Continues
4. What the Recession Wasn’t
5. Recession Prompts Some Governments to Cut Immigrant Integration Funding
6. Canada Bucks the Trend and Keeps Immigration Targets Steady
7. The World Is Talking about Climate Change and Migration
8. More Countries Entering into Post 9/11-Era Information-Sharing Agreements
9. Some Relief for Immigrants in the Developing World
10. Asylum Seekers Unnerve Governments

Check out the Top 10 Migration Issues of 2008. For earlier editions, see the Special Issues section of the archives.

NIH Opportunity Network to Expand Basic Behavioral and Social Sciences Research

NIH Director Francis Collins recently announced the launch of the Basic Behavioral and Social Science Opportunity Network (OppNet), a trans-NIH initiative to expand the agency’s funding of basic behavioral and social sciences research (b-BSSR).

More at