Monthly Archive for June, 2011

Many Black New Yorkers Are Moving South

For New Life, Blacks in City Head to South
By Dan Bilefsky
Source: New York Times, June 21, 2011

From article:

The economic downturn has propelled a striking demographic shift: black New Yorkers, including many who are young and college educated, are heading south.

About 17 percent of the African-Americans who moved to the South from other states in the past decade came from New York, far more than from any other state, according to census data. Of the 44,474 who left New York State in 2009, more than half, or 22,508, went to the South, according to a study conducted by the sociology department of Queens College for The New York Times.

Read more

New Working Papers from the NBER

Disability, Pension Reform and Early Retirement in Germany
by Axel H. Boersch-Supan, Hendrik Juerges
Abstract; PDF

The Economics of Risky Health Behaviors
by John Cawley, Christopher Ruhm
Abstract; PDF

The Long-Run Impacts of Early Childhood Education: Evidence From a Failed Policy Experiment
by Philip DeCicca, Justin D. Smith
Abstract; PDF

Peer Effects and Multiple Equilibria in the Risky Behavior of Friends
by David Card, Laura Giuliano
Abstract; PDF

Is Gifted Education a Bright Idea? Assessing the Impact of Gifted and Talented Programs on Achievement
by Sa A. Bui, Steven G. Craig, Scott A. Imberman
Abstract; PDF

How Responsive is Investment in Schooling to Changes in Returns? Evidence from an Unusual Pay Reform in Israel’s Kibbutzim
by Ran Abramitzky, Victor Lavy
Abstract; PDF

Life and Growth
by Charles I. Jones
Abstract; PDF

Childhood Health and Differences in Late-Life Health Outcomes Between England and the United States
by James Banks, Zoe Oldfield, James P. Smith
Abstract; PDF

Racial Differences in Inequality Aversion: Evidence from Real World Respondents in the Ultimatum Game
by John D. Griffin, David Nickerson, Abigail K. Wozniak
Abstract; PDF

On the Origins of Gender Roles: Women and the Plough
by Alberto F. Alesina, Paola Giuliano, Nathan Nunn
Abstract; PDF

Do Majority Black Districts Limit Blacks’ Representation? The Case of the 1990 Redistricting
by Ebonya L. Washington
Abstract; PDF

Children Left Behind: The Effects of Statewide Job Loss on Student Achievement
by Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat, Anna Gassman-Pines, Dania V. Francis, Christina M. Gibson-Davis
Abstract; PDF

Maternity Leave and Children’s Cognitive and Behavioral Development
by Michael Baker, Kevin S. Milligan
Abstract; PDF

High-School Exit Examinations and the Schooling Decisions of Teenagers: A Multi-Dimensional Regression-Discontinuity Analysis
by John P. Papay, John B. Willett, Richard J. Murnane
Abstract; PDF

Disability in Belgium: There is More than Meets the Eye
by Alain Jousten, Mathieu Lefebvre, Sergio Perelman
Abstract; PDF

Income, Democracy, and the Cunning of Reason
by Daniel Treisman
Abstract; PDF

Time for Children: Trends in the Employment Patterns of Parents, 1967-2009
by Liana E. Fox, Wen-Jui Han, Christopher Ruhm, Jane Waldfogel
Abstract; PDF

Disability Programs, Health and Retirement in Denmark since 1960
by Paul Bingley, Nabanita Datta Gupta, Peder J. Pedersen
Abstract; PDF

Immigration, Jobs and Employment Protection: Evidence from Europe
by Francesco D’Amuri, Giovanni Peri
Abstract; PDF

Dimensions of Health in the Elderly Population
by David M. Cutler, Mary Beth Landrum
Abstract; PDF

Studying Discrimination: Fundamental Challenges and Recent Progress
by Kerwin Charles, Jonathan Guryan
Abstract; PDF

New Working Papers from the NBER

Diversity and Technological Progress
by Daron Acemoglu
Abstract; PDF

Employment in Black Urban Labor Markets: Problems and Solutions
by Judith K. Hellerstein, David Neumark
Abstract; PDF

China’s Rising Demand for “Green Cities”: Evidence from Cross-City Real Estate Price Hedonics
by Siqi Zheng, Jing Cao, Matthew E. Kahn
Abstract; PDF

Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity
by Victor Chernozhukov, Ivan Fernandez-Val, Amanda E. Kowalski
Abstract; PDF

Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification? Evidence from Beijing
by Siqi Zheng, Matthew E. Kahn
Abstract; PDF

The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity
by Joshua S. Graff Zivin, Matthew J. Neidell
Abstract; PDF

Unintended Media Effects in a Conflict Environment: Serbian Radio and Croatian Nationalism
by Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Enikolopov, Vera Mironova, Maria Petrova, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya #16989 (LS PE POL)
Abstract; PDF

Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch
by Quamrul Ashraf, Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

Estimating and Testing Non-Linear Models Using Instrumental Variables
by Lance Lochner, Enrico Moretti
Abstract; PDF

Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010
by Henry S. Farber
Abstract; PDF

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Anti-Poverty Programs in the United States
by Yonatan Ben-Shalom, Robert A. Moffitt, John Karl Scholz
Abstract; PDF

Incentives and the Effects of Publication Lags on Life Cycle Research Productivity in Economics
by John P. Conley, Mario J. Crucini, Robert A. Driskill, Ali Sina Onder
Abstract; PDF

The Role of Theory in Field Experiments
by David Card, Stefano DellaVigna, Ulrike Malmendier
Abstract; PDF

Health, Disability and Pathways to Retirement in Spain
by Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Judit Vall Castello
Abstract; PDF

Disability, Health and Retirement in the United Kingdom
by James Banks, Richard Blundell, Antoine Bozio, Carl Emmerson
Abstract; PDF

Disability Pension Program and Labor Force Participation in Japan: A Historical Perspective
by Takashi Oshio, Satoshi Shimizutani
Abstract; PDF

Disability Insurance and Labor Market Exit Routes of Older Workers in The Netherlands
by Klaas de Vos, Arie Kapteyn, Adriaan Kalwij
Abstract; PDF

Disability Insurance, Population Health and Employment in Sweden
by Lisa Joensson, Marten Palme, Ingemar Svensson
Abstract; PDF

Disability and Social Security Reforms: The French Case
by Luc Behaghel, Didier Blanchet, Thierry Debrand, Muriel Roger
Abstract; PDF

Money and Happiness: Evidence from the Industry Wage Structure
by Joern-Steffen Pischke
Abstract; PDF

The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences
by Oded Galor
Abstract; PDF

Isolating the Effect of Major Depression on Obesity: Role of Selection Bias
by Dhaval M. Dave, Jennifer Tennant, Gregory J. Colman
Abstract; PDF

Is Universal Health Care in Brazil Really Universal?
by Guido Cataife, Charles J. Courtemanche
Abstract; PDF

The Doctor Might See You Now: The Supply Side Effects of Public Health Insurance Expansions
by Craig L. Garthwaite
Abstract; PDF

Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications
by Annamaria Lusardi, Daniel J. Schneider, Peter Tufano
Abstract; PDF

True or false ‘hackers steal entire 2011 census’

Hackers ‘steal entire 2011 census’
Christopher Williams | The Telegraph
June 21, 2011

The entire 2011 UK census database has been stolen by hackers and will be published online, it has been claimed.

Here is the response from the Office for National statistics:
[Press Briefing]
We are aware of the suggestion that census data has been accessed. We are working with our security advisers and contractors to establish whether there is any substance to this.

And, here’s a link to the Press Briefings for further updates.

New Reports from the Urban Institute

Thirteen Ways of Looking at Aging
Our extensive work on retirement policy covers the many ways the aging of America will trigger changes in how we work, retire, and spend federal resources. The number of Americans age 65 and over will rise from about 13 percent in 2008 to 20 percent by 2040. The recession dealt a heavy blow to retirement accounts, leaving many older adults worried about their retirement security.

Unemployment Statistics on Older Americans (Fact Sheet – PDF)
The recession has increased joblessness among older Americans. These graphs and tables report unemployment rates and how they have varied by age, sex, race, and education since 2007.

Child Care Choices of Low-Income Working Families
By:Ajay Chaudry, Juan Pedroza, Heather Sandstrom, Anna Danziger, Michel Grosz, Molly M. Scott, Sarah Ting
This research report presents the findings from a qualitative study of the child care choices of low-income working families in two urban communities. Participants included 86 parents with young children, many of whom were immigrants, English language learners, or parents of children with special needs. We discuss the key themes and variations in family experiences, giving particular attention to parental preferences and the factors that influenced their decisions, within the contexts of their employment and the early care and education programs in their communities. We conclude with policy recommendations that can promote parental access to affordable and high quality care.

Read the entire report in PDF format.

A Tale of Two Fathers

A Tale of Two Fathers: More Are Active, but More are Absent
By: Gretchen Livingston and Kim Parker
Source: Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends

From Overview:

The role of fathers in the modern American family is changing in important and countervailing ways. Fathers who live with their children have become more intensely involved in their lives, spending more time with them and taking part in a greater variety of activities. However, the share of fathers who are residing with their children has fallen significantly in the past half century.

In 1960, only 11% of children in the U.S. lived apart from their fathers. By 2010, that share had risen to 27%. The share of minor children living apart from their mothers increased only modestly, from 4% in 1960 to 8% in 2010.

According to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), more than one-in-four fathers with children 18 or younger now live apart from their children—with 11% living apart from some of their children and 16% living apart from all of their children.

Full report (HTML)
Full report (PDF)

Asian Immigrants in the United States

By: Jeanne Batalova
Source: Migration Policy Institute

From the report:

Nearly 20 years ago, Congress established the month of May as Asian-Pacific American Heritage Month to recognize two events: the arrival of first Japanese immigrants on May 7, 1843, and the contributions of Chinese immigrant laborers in the building of the transcontinental railroad, which was completed on May 10, 1869. In observance of Asian-Pacific American Heritage Month, we share the most recent facts and statistics about immigrants from Asia.

As of 2009, there were more than 10.6 million Asian immigrants in the United States. Immigration from Asia has increased considerably since the 1965 US Immigration and Nationality Act, which removed national-origin quotas that favored European immigration. In 1960, the Asian born accounted for just 5 percent of the foreign-born population in the United States, but by 2009, their share increased more than five-fold to account for nearly 28 percent of immigrants. Today, the Asian born are the country’s second-largest immigrant population by world region of birth, behind those from Latin America.

The top three countries of origin of Asian immigrants are the Philippines, India, and China, and California, New York, and Texas are home to nearly half of all Asian immigrants in the country (for more information on immigrants by state, please see the ACS/Census Data tool on the MPI Data Hub).

Full report (HTML)

Growing a Better Future

Oxfam’s Grow Campaign

From the summary:

The sustainable production challenge

The food system must be transformed. By 2050, there will be 9 billion people on the planet and demand for food will have increased by 70 per cent. This demand must be met despite flatlining yields, increasing water scarcity, and growing competition over land. And agriculture must rapidly adapt to a changing climate and slash its carbon footprint.

The equity challenge

We must also address the appalling inequities which plague the food system from farm to fork. We produce more food than we need. In the rich world, we throw much of it away. In the developing world, nearly one billion of us go without. Hunger and poverty are concentrated in rural areas. Unlocking the potential of smallholder agriculture – the backbone of the food system – represents our single biggest opportunity to increase food production, boost food security, and reduce vulnerability. Yet women and men food producers are routinely deprived of the resources they need to thrive: of water, technology, investment and credit, among others. Huge swathes of land in Africa and elsewhere are being handed over to investors at rock bottom prices, in deals that offer little to local communities.

GROW Campaign
Growing a Better Future (summary)
Growing a Better Future (full report)

The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

By: Laura Bl Shrestha and Elayne J. Heisler
Source: Congressional Research Service

From the summary:

The United States, the third most populous country globally, accounts for about 4.5% of the world’s population. The U.S. population—currently estimated at 308.7 million persons—has more than doubled since its 1950 level of 152.3 million. More than just being double in size, the population has become qualitatively different from what it was in 1950. As noted by the Population Reference Bureau, “The U.S. is getting bigger, older, and more diverse.” The objective of this report is to highlight some of the demographic changes that have already occurred since 1950 and to illustrate how these and future trends will reshape the nation in the decades to come (through 2050).

Full report (PDF)

Costing the Count: Old style censuses. . .

Costing the count: Old style censuses are cumbersome and costly. Reform is coming
The Economist | June 2, 2011

Related to this is an NSF-Census Research Network (NCRN) RFP:
Program Solicitation – NSF 10-621
The NSF-Census Research Network will provide support for a set of research nodes, each of which will be staffed by a team of scientists conducting interdisciplinary research and educational activities on methodological questions of interest and significance to the broader research community and to the Federal Statistical System, particularly the U.S. Census Bureau.

And, here are some slides – but no notes – on thoughts on a re-engineered census in 2020:
Plans for the Research and Testing Phase of the 2020 Census
Presentation at Association of Public Data Users Conference
September 20, 2010
Daniel Weinberg