Monthly Archive for December, 2015

How Americans Spend Their Day

Nathan Yau of Flowing Data created a beautiful visualization of how Americans spend an average day.

More specifically, I tabulated transition probabilities for one activity to the other, such as from work to traveling, for every minute of the day. That provided 1,440 transition matrices, which let me model a day as a time-varying Markov chain.

Baby Boomers, Cohabitation, and Marriage

Jennifer Murff, writing for the Family Studies blog, discusses the trend of the Baby Boom generation choosing cohabitation over marriage.

My mom’s story is not unique—far from it. Baby Boomers are cohabiting at a high and increasing rate. In 2000, when the oldest Baby Boomers were in their early fifties, there were 1.2 million cohabiting Americans over age 50; in 2013, by comparison, there were 3.3 million. For older Americans who are divorced and want to find love for a second (or a third) time—marriage is not in the cards, it seems. Unlike Millennials, many of whom cohabit to test the waters with a partner before making a long-term commitment, Boomers may cohabit rather than marry for more complicated reasons.

2014 Income and Poverty Estimates for School Districts, Counties, and States

The Census Bureau released the 2014 estimates from it Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program last week.

From Data Detectives:

Tables provide statistics on the number of people in poverty, the number of children younger than age 5 in poverty (for states only), the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty, the number younger than age 18 in poverty, and median household income. At the school district level, estimates are available for the total population, the number of children ages 5 to 17 and the number of children ages 5 to 17 in families in poverty.

Current reproductive trends via pregnancy rates

The drop in birth rates from 2007 through 2013 has been well documented. However, it is also important to examine total rates of pregnancy and other pregnancy outcomes (abortion and fetal loss) to provide a comprehensive picture of current reproductive trends. This NCHS Health E-Stat uses data from 2010 to update a previous NCHS report on pregnancy rates. Data on pregnancy outcomes by age and race and Hispanic origin are presented.

2010 Pregnancy Rates Among U.S. Women
Sally C. Curtin, Joyce Abma [NCHS] and Kathryn Kost [Guttmacher Institute]
December 2015
html | pdf

Graph of Race x Age specific pregnancy rates over time

Demographer vs Demographer

Monday’s Supreme Court case centered on data. The case, Evenwell v Abbot, argues that representation in Texas legislative districts ought to be based on voters rather than the total population. Currently, most states use total population for re-districting purposes and this comes from the decennial census. The decennial census does not have a citizenship question. But, the replacement for the Census long-form, the American Community Survey (ACS) does.

The former directors of the Census Bureau filed an amicus brief against the idea of using the eligible voter population (e.g., citizens 18+ years of age). A group of applied demographers also filed an amicus brief, noting that this was quite possible using the ACS. Note that Sonia Sotomayor does not think the ACS is adequate, but that is because she misunderstands the data:

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As is typical with cases involving data and social science research, there are lots of supplementary links:

The Washington Post [10 or so opinions from the Opinion | In Theory section]
One Person One Vote’: A Primer
Washington Post | Opinion : In Theory
October 2015
[10 or so opinions and comments]

Argument preview: How to measure “one person, one vote”
Lyle Dunston | ScotusBlog
December 1, 2015

The Threat to Representation for Children and Non-Citizens: An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Evenwel v. Abbott on Redistricting
Andrew Beveridge | Social Explorer
December 2, 2015

Supreme Court is skeptical of challenge to Texas district lines
Maria Recio | Sacramento Bee
December 8, 2015
This is the source of the Sotomayor quote

. . . Dueling Affirmative Action Empiricism” [this is actually from Fisher vs Texas, but is included here as evidence of the Supreme Court using social science research.