Home > Publications . Search All . Browse All . Country . Browse PSC Pubs . PSC Report Series

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Shaefer says the details matter in child tax reform

Prescott says Michigan's restrictive sex offender law hurts social reentry

Yang's work suggests Hurricane Maria will prompt increased migration from Puerto Rico to US

More News

Highlights

U-M is the only public and non-coastal university on Forbes' top-10 list for billionaire production

ASA President Bonilla-Silva takes exception with Chief Justice Roberts' 'gobbledygook' jab

Nobel laureate Angus Deaton, David Lam, and colleagues discuss global poverty, 10/5, 4pm

James Jackson named inaugural recipient of U-M Diversity Scholar Career Award

More Highlights

Next Brown Bag

Mon, Oct 23, 2017, noon: Carol Shiue, "Social Mobility in China, 1300-1800"

Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Hurd, Michael, and Kathleen McGarry. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 94-004. 12 1993.

In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and they do aggregate. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, smokers give lower probabilities of living to 75 than nonsmokers. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision making under uncertainty.

Browse | Search : All Pubs | Next