Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

PDF Honig, Marjorie. 1996. "Changes over Time in Subjective Retirement Probabilities." AHEAD/HRS Report No. 96-036. 7 1996.

Reliable forecasts of future retirement patterns are of obvious importance in formulating public policy. The predictive value of workers' expectations regarding retirement depends, however, on whether expectations are reliable indicators of future retirement, conditional on the information available at the time that expectations are formed. Using workers' responses in the U.S. Health and Retirement Survey about the chances of working after age 62, this paper provides some tentative answers to two important questions regarding retirement expectations: Does there appear to be a high random component to expectations regarding future retirement and, if not, does the same behavioral model that generates retirement realizations seem to generate retirement expectations as well? Findings on changes in reported expectations between Waves 1 and 2 of the HRS suggest that expectations may well provide useful information about future retirement.

Dataset(s): Health and Retirement Study: U.S., 1992 (first wave) and 1994 (second wave).

Browse | Search

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Shaefer comments on the Cares Act impact in negating hardship during COVID-19 pandemic

Heller comments on lasting safety benefit of youth employment programs

More News

Highlights

Dean Yang's Combatting COVID-19 in Mozambique study releases Round 1 summary report

Help Establish Standard Data Collection Protocols for COVID-19 Research

More Highlights


Connect with PSC follow PSC on Twitter Like PSC on Facebook