Spatial Aspects of the American "Culture War": The Two Dimensions of US Family Demography and the Presidential Elections, 1968-2016

Archived Abstract of Former PSC Researcher

Download PDF versionLesthaeghe, Ron J., and Lisa Neidert. 2017. "Spatial Aspects of the American "Culture War": The Two Dimensions of US Family Demography and the Presidential Elections, 1968-2016." PSC Research Report No. 17-880. 4 2017.

This paper explores the link between two basic dimensions of family demography and the outcome of presidential elections for states and continental counties in the United States. It shows that the spatial patterns of respectively the "Second demographic transition" (SDT) and voting start converging in the 1990s. The correlations remain very high and stable thereafter. This does not hold for the correlation between the other dimension of family demography, i.e. the pattern of disadvantage (POD), and voting. The spatial SDT-voting correlation does not depend on the issues being debated during the successive elections, and it reaches a maximum in the latest election round (2016) at the level of both states and counties. Furthermore, the zero order correlation remains intact after controls for household income, education, urbanity, religion and ethnicity at the state level, but is reduced at the county level. The latter result is produced by the high concentration of Democratic votes and SDT household structures in the metropolitan counties. On the whole, the SDT dimension is one of the strongest predictors of spatial voting patterns in the US since the turn of the century.

Browse | Search : All Pubs

PSC In The News

RSS Feed icon

Owen-Smith considers research team size and support of diversity of the research enterprise

Thompson says it is easier for police to seize assets from a black person than a white person

Burgard quoted in Huffington Post

More News

Highlights

Meghan O'Neil's work on "Housing Policy, Race, Inequality, and Disparate Impact" published in Phlyon's Du Bois King Anniversary issue

Morenoff elected Secretary of APC Association of Population Centers for 2019

More Highlights


Connect with PSC follow PSC on Twitter Like PSC on Facebook